Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Guest]

Thats a pretty big difference in just 12hrs from the Arome. 

[Wivenswold]

We had one of these systems about 5 years ago. Nothing seemingly doing then Boom, storms erupting all over the SE. Had 3 good storms in one evening that time, though it was hotter and later in the summer. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Thats a pretty big difference in just 12hrs from the Arome. 

Just shows that none of the models can be trusted to be honest

[ChannelThunder]

Well into radar-watching territory now. Can't believe some of us are getting to do this all over again just three days after the last!

[Guest]

First SFERICS, in the extreme western part of the Brest Peninsular, that seems very far west....

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

First SFERICS, in the extreme western part of the Brest Peninsular, that seems very far west....

So You'Re Telling Me Theres A Chance GIF - Theresachange Dumband Dumber Jim Carrey - Discover & Share GIFs

TENOR.COM

---

Click to view the GIF

 

[Guest]

Things should start going up quite quickly between the two red lines fairly quickly I would think.

 

[sheikhy]

Not expecting much here now!models have gone east unfortunately!!

[Sam jackson88]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Things should start going up quite quickly between the two red lines fairly quickly I would think.

 

looks good fingers and toes crossed, on sat24 clouds starting to get structure

[Southern Storm]

12 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Well into radar-watching territory now. Can't believe some of us are getting to do this all over again just three days after the last!

I'm really toying with the idea of a trip somewhere north of Brighton, but I have bad memories of a past chase that ended with nothing 

Unfortunately this was due to storms tracking further east than originally forecast, and I'm getting similar vibes about this evening 

These last minute changes are not what i wanted to see 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Southern Storm

[Gordon Webb]

 

Update From PJB

5.30pm Update based on 12Z Guidance.

Observations & Satellite imagery suggest highest Theta-W 16-18C Plume is slightly further east than earlier models were expecting.

Expect Storm initiation this evening as upper trough moves NE across the Channel/Cherbourg & into SE Eng

Have shifted main area in Kent, Sussex, London, Essex which looks set to have the highest Theta-W values. Still scope for Big CBs and 40,000ft TOps.

Still slight risk of Supercells in the far SE and attendant risk of Larger Hail,  Torrential Rain & 45Knt Gusts. 

 

 

Copy and pasted from another Site , If not allowed feel free to delete

 

[Petorious]

If things do kick off further west as starting to show, then just maybe more hope for central counties as well. 

[Justin1705]

My view for the night. Just off Brighton's coast. Already looks and feels favourable..... we shall be op it  see 

[ChannelThunder]

5 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

I'm really toying with the idea of a trip somewhere north of Brighton, but I have bad memories of a past chase that ended with nothing 

Unfortunately this was due to storms tracking further east than originally forecast, and I'm getting similar vibes about this evening 

These last minute changes are not what i wanted to see 

 

 

 

Yeah, I had a fair few wasted chases while living on the 'mainland', so while being 'stuck' back here on the Island is going to mean I miss out on a lot of events, overall, for my sanity and wallet (especially with these fuel prices), it's for the best that I can no longer go gallivanting 100 miles for nothing!

My worst idea was in 2020 when I drove from where I lived in NE Hants, all the way to Dungeness, and got one CG and some torrential rain out of it, and that was it! 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Lance M

[viking_smb]

The storms will be moving very quickly in easterly direction.

[Harry]

From a nowcasting perspective, I haven’t seen any notable signs of instability in London but there are some signs further east into Kent…serious sense of foreboding flooding in

Wont be able to message again until 20:00 (ish) by when I’m sure it’ll all be becoming clear

Edited May 18, 2022 by Harry

[*Stormforce~beka*]

21 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Maybe those brave enough to utter the immortal words ‘Kent Clipper’ were right afterall. We shall see. 

I uttered them as a joke! As it's a long standing running joke but we shall see indeed!

[Sam jackson88]

barometer Current:1016.0 mb 1-Hour Trend:Falling Rapidly 3-Hour Trend:Falling rapidly Hi: 1023.0 mb | Low: 1016.0 mb Humidity:58% -rising Humidex:18.4°C Dew Point:9.1°C -rising

Wet Bulb:13.0°C so trying to understand this so pressure is falling but humidity and dew points are rising hmmmm

[Frostbite1980]

10 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

The storms will be moving very quickly in easterly direction.

Really? More N/NE i would say

[MR CB]

Very calm and quiet here...birds singing galore....seems humid...plenty of cloud bands in streets flowing up from the SSW...some Castellanus about too 

[Azazel]

Genuinely expected destabilisation to have begun by now. Seems awfully quiet. I can see the grim, boring, frontal rain out west coming to drizzle on me. 

[Jamie M]

MetJam_ - Twitch

WWW.TWITCH.TV

---

Storm testing

We'll have to see how this goes but this is my view west. 

[Wivenswold]

23 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Have shifted main area in Kent, Sussex, London, Essex which looks set to have the highest Theta-W values. Still scope for Big CBs and 40,000ft TOps.

Still slight risk of Supercells in the far SE and attendant risk of Larger Hail,  Torrential Rain & 45Knt Gusts. 

Oh to still have a 6th floor office in Southend overlooking the Thames Estuary.  I think that might be the sweet spot.  

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Azazel said:

Genuinely expected destabilisation to have begun by now. Seems awfully quiet. I can see the grim, boring, frontal rain out west coming to drizzle on me. 

Things being a little further east has just delayed things slightly. The trough is moving east, should see some cells firing around Cherbourg in the next couple of hours. 

[Arnie Pie]

6 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

We'll have to see how this goes but this is my view west. 

Nice one Jamie.....Good stream

Edit; which way is it facing?

Edited May 18, 2022 by Arnie Pie