Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Luck, I barely even got rain here. Just a little.

Wonder if you saw good structure like I did?

[tomp456]

6 minutes ago, Harry said:

Don’t take any notice of that @tomp456. You also forget they are in 3 hour increments - the stuff to your west will move and develop NE and the further wave will move from your S - so if it plays out like that it’d be incredible for you to miss out completely 

That is a very good point lol 

[alexisj9]

13 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m looking at Ashdown Forest area, perhaps down towards Brighton (but trying to avoid light pollution and built-up areas) . Consider you’ll probably want to head NE to chase the storms a little once they pass - but they will be moving quickly.

Where I’ve been a few times now in Ashdown forest is really open in all directions and super quiet, too. Great place if the storms aren’t too far East

Was actually on a school trip camping there years ago, an epic storm broke out. 

[Cain]

I’m hoping I can see some distant lightning shows later from here in south east wales but not very hopeful 

[Justin1705]

Instability  

sun  

music  

potentially severe thunderstorms ?  

can't see it being a busy with the heat on the south coast today !

[Frosty hollows]

Feels quite fresh atm here. Be interesting to see developments later.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Justin1705 said:

Well I'm laying on brighton beach. May lay here till 9pm. I have a sea view hotel room until tommorow. Turns out my bday was yday and I was here getting drunk. Now to top it off the forecast looks meaty for me today. I will Record from the beach and or my room tonightguys, however could someone tell me how quick should I get off the beach !! If it gets real.

 

if tonight comes off. My 21st birthday would deffo be one to remember. 
 

anyway off to enjoy the day and the sunny weather. Watch this space guys on the frontline !!

Oh to be 21 again...and have a sea view room for storm watching...can it get any better?

Have a great evening / night mate...look forward to the pics  (and watch that sun burn!)???

[alexisj9]

30 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Wonder if you saw good structure like I did?

Nah, I was looking out the window, but didn't see much, was at my Tuesday night pool match.

[ChannelThunder]

I wouldn't worry if the air feels too fresh today. It also did so on Sunday. Our storm fuel is up in the mid levels.

 

Edit: UKV 9z corrects eastward for southern areas, but still looking great for East Mids

Edited May 18, 2022 by Lance M

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Feels quite fresh atm here. Be interesting to see developments later.

The warmer and more humid airmass is still south of the UK. I would expect the sky to start turning milkier and maybe some Ac starting to appear a bit later as moisture and instability begins to rise a little 

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Harry

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I wouldn't worry if the air feels too fresh today. It also did so on Sunday. Our storm fuel is up in the mid levels.

It doesn't feel fresh here., Se Kent.

Edited May 18, 2022 by alexisj9

[James1979]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

No, absolutely not.

Hope you're right, I'm feeling a bit cheated this last week!

Edited May 18, 2022 by James1979

[James1979]

1 hour ago, Liam Burge said:

Please give proof of Estofex being bang on, I was under the opposite illusion.

That's going to be a tough one given I said over the years, just generally felt they have been very accurate over time. 

[Sun & Tanned]

Could I possibly please ask. I love in wendover and have an autistic son. He doesn't like thunder. Do you think Aylesbury will see any so I can prepare him in advance?

Thank you for any help. 

[Justin1705]

10 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Oh to be 21 again...and have a sea view room for storm watching...can it get any better?

Have a great evening / night mate...look forward to the pics  (and watch that sun burn!)???

Thanks man. It certainly couldn't be any better. Tommorow looks as if the sun will be shining too! 
 

you will deffo have pics vids and maybe even a time lapse  

 

 

[Frosty hollows]

6 minutes ago, Harry said:

The warmer and more humid airmass is still south of the UK. I would expect the sky to start turning milkier and maybe some Ac starting to appear a bit later as moisture and instability begins to rise a little 

 

Yep.....just feels strange knowing what could develop from something that couldn't feel less primed!

[Weatherman_93]

BBC Weather saying Essex has a 70% chance overnight of thunderstorms. Most likely be heavy rain and that's it! 

[Dbarb]

There's a chance the warning could go amber btw. The warning matrix is 3/4 in terms of impact. If confidence increases it will likely get upgraded

[kieranweatherfan]

Really muggy feeling here in Greater London, temp up to 22° 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Weatherman_93 said:

BBC Weather saying Essex has a 70% chance overnight of thunderstorms. Most likely be heavy rain and that's it! 

Well, I'll be sticking with the UK Met: they're far better than the BBC!

 

[Azazel]

Hampshire even getting a mention!

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I'll be sticking with the UK Met: they're far better than the BBC!

 

Snap!

[Paul]

For those who subscribe to extra, we've just added MU and ML CAPE charts to the UKV viewer. 

Please note that there was a labelling issue on the first run they were added for (9z) so the MU CAPE is shown as the ML CAPE and vice-versa - this'll be fixed from the 12z onwards. 

[Harry]

28 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:

Could I possibly please ask. I love in wendover and have an autistic son. He doesn't like thunder. Do you think Aylesbury will see any so I can prepare him in advance?

Thank you for any help. 

It is very difficult to say to be honest with you. The greater chances of thunder are further east so I would say, yes there is a chance, but reassure him that it might not happen.

I was terrified of thunder when I was younger. I then started reading kids weather books and saw a documentary about storms, and from that point it flipped to complete fascination (to the point of almost obsession really when storms are around). 

1 minute ago, Paul said:

For those who subscribe to extra, we've just added MU and ML CAPE charts to the UKV viewer. 

Please note that there was a labelling issue on the first run they were added for (9z) so the MU CAPE is shown as the ML CAPE and vice-versa - this'll be fixed from the 12z onwards. 

One thing I can’t get my head around is that the models seem to keep showing a peak in CAPE after the rain and storms have largely moved on through. I’m finding that a little bit baffling and some cause for concern regarding degree of lightning potential.

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

It is very difficult to say to be honest with you. The greater chances of thunder are further east so I would say, yes there is a chance, but reassure him that it might not happen.

I was terrified of thunder when I was younger. I then started reading kids weather books and saw a documentary about storms, and from that point it flipped to complete fascination (to the point of almost obsession really when storms are around). 

One thing I can’t get my head around is that the models seem to keep showing a peak in CAPE after the rain and storms have largely moved on through. I’m finding that a little bit baffling and some cause for concern regarding degree of lightning potential.

There's still enough juice in the atmosphere earlier, but it may be that the extra energy feeds some quite powerful tail end charlie cells. Isolated but potent, potentially. 

[Sun & Tanned]

10 minutes ago, Harry said:

It is very difficult to say to be honest with you. The greater chances of thunder are further east so I would say, yes there is a chance, but reassure him that it might not happen.

I was terrified of thunder when I was younger. I then started reading kids weather books and saw a documentary about storms, and from that point it flipped to complete fascination (to the point of almost obsession really when storms are around). 

One thing I can’t get my head around is that the models seem to keep showing a peak in CAPE after the rain and storms have largely moved on through. I’m finding that a little bit baffling and some cause for concern regarding degree of lightning potential.

Thank you for your help