Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Dami]

wow that convective outlook has upgraded since i looked this morning!

[Petorious]

Looks biblical for my location and so many others. Gunna by radar watching from early afternoon, looking at the sky and fingers crossed its not just another failed forecast lol.

[Liam Burge]

Hey everyone! 

Enjoy the storms today, looks like it could turn out to be quite a significant event today. Unfortunately, I'm a bit too far west from the main initiation to really see anything exciting, however I am going to be closely watching the south east coast (Brighton, Worthing) as I feel like this is where the highest potential for some significant weather lies.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Good to see a number of people out chasing today! Hopefully, might run into one or two of you at some point

Edited May 18, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Rufus Butterfield]

Highly doubt I’ll get anything where I’m at, but there may just be the off chance of some distant lightning if the storms get positioned far enough north. I’d love to chase but I’ve got work early next day.

[Liam Burge]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Good to see a number of people out chasing today! However, might run into one or two of you at some point

Have fun chasing! 

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Good to see a number of people out chasing today! Hopefully, might run into one or two of you at some point

I'll be garden chasing although it depends on timing as it could also occur at cricket for me in Ashford since that can sometimes run past 8PM for half an hour or longer but I suspect it'll happen when I get home.

[ChannelThunder]

Might get myself to one the highest points of the island tonight incase this lot stays in the channel, or the storms initiate to the East, so long as I can leave my car nearby to run to if things get too real!

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Good to see a number of people out chasing today! Hopefully, might run into one or two of you at some point

Will be out from 6pm, although probably only heading as some of the high points in the new forest, will probably make a ‘now-chase’ decision at last minute!

[camturbo]

Dont think I will get to see anything as I'm probably too far west,cant chase either so am left with radar watching,reading posts seeing pics and thinking why cant I live there.. 

Good luck to those who chase,those that get the jackpot keep any updates coming and make sure the pics are top notch!!@

[Dami]

Met O have given out a yellow warning for thunderstorms.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Dami

[Liam Burge]

4 minutes ago, Dami said:

Met O have given out a yellow warning for thunderstorms.

Yep. When the storms initiate I could potentially see an upgrade to amber being issued as the current warning is high impact but very unlikely.

 

[Gonzolio Martinez]

Hoping Norwich sees something tonight - we seem to be in an awkward spot to get storms in recent years - in the 90s and early 2000s it seemed to be a hotspot here, now it's usually too far north, south, east or west. Lincolnshire seems to be the new hotspot in the last 10 or so years.

Judging by the UKV, the big bad blob should pass over at about 1am, but I highly suspect all the best activity will be to the south, and I'll be left with just a messy blob of rain.

[kieranweatherfan]

Really hoping we get something in London tonight, especially as they completely failed the other day 

[Mapantz]

A live stream again, tonight then?

[Marcus_surfer]

Travelling to Gatwick later hows it looking for that area?

[Norfolk Sheep]

10 minutes ago, Gonzolio Martinez said:

Hoping Norwich sees something tonight - we seem to be in an awkward spot to get storms in recent years - in the 90s and early 2000s it seemed to be a hotspot here, now it's usually too far north, south, east or west. Lincolnshire seems to be the new hotspot in the last 10 or so years.

Judging by the UKV, the big bad blob should pass over at about 1am, but I highly suspect all the best activity will be to the south, and I'll be left with just a messy blob of rain.

If I go out I'll literally be waiting for that first tell tale flicker in the distance before starting my engine. 

Been there, busted so many times, I've found the last minute approach works really well....

[Josh Rubio]

From an IMBY perspective I’m hoping the storms will be a little further West, as I fear they’ll skirt to the East of here. 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:

From an IMBY perspective I’m hoping the storms will be a little further West, as I fear they’ll skirt to the East of here. 

We got this mate!!

[tomp456]

Well well well, we've been here before, haven't we....

[camturbo]

Estofex is out!!! 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, camturbo said:

Estofex is out!!! 

And not really very exciting to be honest. 

[LightningLover]

Just now, Alderc said:

And not really very exciting to be honest. 

Pretty nice for East sussex/Kent dwellers!

[BrickFielder]

Some models are suggesting the long wave trough to the west of the UK is not going to move as far east as was forecast yesterday in the time frame. This might move things a little bit more westward.

Forecast SkewTs (based on GFS modelling) for the UK are not particularly convective looking. There is marginal surface based  convection across the midlands and wales perhaps late afternoon. There is marginal elevated convection for the south east during the late evening. What the SkewTs do show is moisture coming in at low mid levels.

Satellite imagery does not really show much in the way of short waves and the most pronounced is still to the west of Portugal and probably will not arrive in the UK till the early hours of the morning. Weak mid level lapse rates also do not suggest strong convection across the UK.

It looks like not all precipitation forecast is storm based and the areas of highest wind shear do not coincide well with storms. Severe storms generally need strong up draughts and steep lapse rates so anything home grown probably will not be severe. Conditions over France are different but it is worth noting the highest areas of instability would not tend to create storms that would be steered towards the UK.

 Pointing out some of the issues will hopefully temper expectations a little. My best guess is that the South East will see some elevated storms during this evening and overnight with a good lightning display. There is still a question mark in my mind about the midlands and wales or even a late flurry of storms in the early hours of tomorrow. It is also still possible that there will be no storms at all just some outflow rain from the imported remains of storms from elsewhere.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

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