Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Supacell]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Good luck mate,shame about that Ripon cell that you couldn't visualise on,it was a monster on the radar returns and sucked up daugher cells along it's path

i get my car back tomorrow after a long month without it due to a DPF blockage causing engine trouble and the diesel mixing in with the oil and flooding the turbo and air intake,i cannot wait to get back on the road,i do have 2 weeks off in June from the 13th so hopefully there will be some storms around then.

I have to look back through my footage from yesterday to check if there are any visuals. However for the most part it was leaden grey skies, torrential rain, flooding and the occasional flashes of lightning. 

I'm still editing Sunday night though.

Understand about the car. I have had no car for a couple of months after someone chose to drive into mine. Sunday nights chase was done in a car I bought just that morning

[Allseasons-Si]

That storm east of Le Havre is going nuts,over a 1000 strike in the last update.

[Eagle Eye]

Missed getting a couple lightning strikes on video and some rumbles of thunder but this is insane storm structure and now some strong wind gusts as well 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any charts buddy?!!!12z looked good for us in the east mids so if you are sayin its further west that means the west mids gets into the action now as well!!

Check the UKV charts available on NetWeather - the latest is the 15z - have attached three snips from it

This is the take on tomorrow’s potential by Paul Blight or ‘PJB’ on UK Weather World forums (this forum is the best however fyi) who is well respected.

 

It is subject to current modelling however (so caution advised!) but it’s a great read.

 

 

[Rufus Butterfield]

What’s with this squall feature up in Scotland? Looks quite intense.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I have to look back through my footage from yesterday to check if there are any visuals. However for the most part it was leaden grey skies, torrential rain, flooding and the occasional flashes of lightning. 

I'm still editing Sunday night though.

Understand about the car. I have had no car for a couple of months after someone chose to drive into mine. Sunday nights chase was done in a car I bought just that morning

I know how long it takes to get through/edit footage Karl but fun all the same

as for the car,i would of bought a small run around to get by but my initial feeling or someone telling me that i needed a new engine so i had to flog some pricy stuff(cannot tell as it's personal value to me and would be greatly missed) for a second hand engine,as it stands,that isn't the case to be but it is still costing me £550 for the repairs and that's cheap

i would chase tomorrow and would love to head down towards the area of interest but i am on mornings so a no go for me this time either.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Check the UKV charts available on NetWeather - the latest is the 15z - have attached three snips from it

This is the take on tomorrow’s potential by Paul Blight or ‘PJB’ on UK Weather World forums (this forum is the best however fyi) who is well respected.

 

It is subject to current modelling however (so caution advised!) but it’s a great read.

 

 

Stunning for large parts of the midlands and eastern england!!!could be a brilliant light show!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That storm east of Le Havre is going nuts,over a 1000 strike in the last update.

3218 now

[Zak M]

CW have just issued a day two MDT risk

 

Convective Weather

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Zak M

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

The initial destabilization has been moving west small amounts over the last couple of days. Dorset could well be within a shout..

Hope so, I’m back down there tomorrow evening.

[Allseasons-Si]

Can see the Le Havre storm on this cam heading basically towards that cam.

 

Vision-Environnement

WWW.VISION-ENVIRONNEMENT.COM

---

Visualisez en vidéo et en direct la webcam touristique de la ville de Le Crotoy - Port de Plaisance, localisée dans la région Hauts-de-France, France.

 

[OddSpot]

Quite a few flashes on here

Vision-Environnement

WWW.VISION-ENVIRONNEMENT.COM

---

Visualisez en vidéo et en direct la webcam touristique de la ville de Le Crotoy - Plage, localisée dans la région Hauts-de-France, France.

 

[viking_smb]

6 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

Quite a few flashes on here

Vision-Environnement

WWW.VISION-ENVIRONNEMENT.COM

---

Visualisez en vidéo et en direct la webcam touristique de la ville de Le Crotoy - Plage, localisée dans la région Hauts-de-France, France.

 

its bonkers. 

[MR CB]

Oh my that Le Harve cell I can see from my flat looking out to sea!  Lightning up inside the cloud.

Edited May 17, 2022 by MR CB

[OddSpot]

Get ready on this one shortly

https://www.dieppe.fr/webcams/semaphore

[jake44]

6 minutes ago, MR CB said:

Oh my that Le Harve cell I can see from my flat looking out to sea!  Lightning up inside the cloud.

will i be able to see it from ramsgate ?

[LightningLover]

Loving Dan Holley's placement of the MDT risk zone, and his mention of models being too far west quite often rings true. 27-28th May 2017 was like that, looked to be a dorset destroyer but became a Sussex smashing MCS in the end!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

Loving Dan Holley's placement of the MDT risk zone, and his mention of models being too far west quite often rings true. 27-28th May 2017 was like that, looked to be a dorset destroyer but became a Sussex smashing MCS in the end!

Will probably be right but no denying there has been a significant shift west on each run that has come out today since the 00z run!!the trend is there!!wouldnt surprise me if areas in east wales see a decent light show!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Will probably be right but no denying there has been a significant shift west on each run that has come out today since the 00z run!!the trend is there!!wouldnt surprise me if areas in east wales see a decent light show!!

That won’t happen lol

[Ben Sainsbury]

Will be going chasing tomorrow, from my location in Bristol atm. Despite the westward corrections, I think I'm going to position myself maybe as far east as Brighton given past events. But maybe position closer to Portsmouth should developments happen further west. Does appear tonight to be a distinct split in the developing squall line/MCS, so the possibility of one system moving across CS England and the other much later in the night across the SE.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Will be going chasing tomorrow, from my location in Bristol atm. Despite the westward corrections, I think I'm going to position myself maybe as far east as Brighton given past events. But maybe position closer to Portsmouth should developments happen further west. Does appear tonight to be a distinct split in the developing squall line/MCS, so the possibility of one system moving across CS England and the other much later in the night across the SE.

I’m looking at Ashdown Forest area, perhaps down towards Brighton (but trying to avoid light pollution and built-up areas) . Consider you’ll probably want to head NE to chase the storms a little once they pass - but they will be moving quickly.

Where I’ve been a few times now in Ashdown forest is really open in all directions and super quiet, too. Great place if the storms aren’t too far East

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m looking at Ashdown Forest area, perhaps down towards Brighton (but trying to avoid light pollution and built-up areas) . Consider you’ll probably want to head NE to chase the storms a little once they pass - but they will be moving quickly.

Where I’ve been a few times now in Ashdown forest is really open in all directions and super quiet, too. Great place if the storms aren’t too far East

Looks like a good shout that, definitely something I'll consider tomorrow. One thing regarding the storms, whilst they look to move quickly NE, as typical with these events I would imagine cells to continually develop on the S/SE flank in the region of highest instability and higher Theta-W (something which isn't always well picked up on the models). So I'm hoping I won't have to track NE along with the cells and rather just watch new cells develop on its S flank whilst gradually relocating east. 

[biddie]

5 hours ago, Lance M said:

Yeah, don't get too excited about this evening guys, it's only likely to be a few flashes here and there. Tomorrow night, for the SE, is the 'one'.

It's not will be similar to past few nights

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

CW have just issued a day two MDT risk

 

Convective Weather

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by biddie
Wrong text

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

14 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Looks like a good shout that, definitely something I'll consider tomorrow. One thing regarding the storms, whilst they look to move quickly NE, as typical with these events I would imagine cells to continually develop on the S/SE flank in the region of highest instability and higher Theta-W (something which isn't always well picked up on the models). So I'm hoping I won't have to track NE along with the cells and rather just watch new cells develop on its S flank whilst gradually relocating east. 

Here’s hoping. Sounds like a similar situation to a couple of years ago I found the sweet spot on a hill in Glynde near Brighton. Storm literally came right at me and veered to my left (eastwards) just as it was getting to squeaky bum time. The torrential rain wall must have been less than half a mile from where I was - but I just got drizzle. After it passed I only had a few miles drive and I could see it slowly move NEwards over open fields

Still the best storm I’ve chased I thinK

Edited May 17, 2022 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I know this has probably been posted before already - but from the map it looks like more than just coastal areas will be affected … which is great news for some inland areas within East Sussex and Kent

(From UKWW which is an excellent source for forecasts)