Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Dangerous55019]

Right… That’s it… I’m throwing the towel in on today for me.

For my own point of view, it just wasn’t quite hot enough to kick the storms off around my area. Every thing was in place, but as soon as the storms started to form, they killed themselves off as everything cooled. *sigh*

But good luck to everyone else with todays storms. ?⛈

Here’s the latest rainfall and lightning maps in the hope that they’re useful to other members.

Other than that… It’s over and out from storm starved in north east Wales. 

[TJS1998Tom]

Nothing here apart from a shower today, some towers about but cant see anything happening

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like it could be the day for Northern England

[ChannelThunder]

42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS, ICON and ARPEGE have all pretty much removed any threat for Wednesday evening having it much, much further now. 

In the Met's week ahead forecast, Alex almost has you believing it's a guarantee on Weds AND Friday.  For the latter, their graphics show an occluded front coming directly out of France into CS Eng, but the models are heading it into Benelux, so not sure where they're getting that from...

[Ben Sainsbury]

6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

In the Met's week ahead forecast, Alex almost has you believing it's a guarantee on Weds AND Friday.  For the latter, their graphics show an occluded front coming directly out of France into CS Eng, but the models are heading it into Benelux, so not sure where they're getting that from...

Eh? To me the GFS is the only model that has the system missing the UK completely. ICON appears very good still, ARPEGE doesn't develop an intense feature which is at odds with all the other models. IMO the UKV, NMM, ICON, ECM, UKMO all have something crossing the SE and that's been the consistent theme throughout, was always going to be a SE England event unless I'm missing something.

Not saying the system won't miss the UK, but I'm more in agreement with the Met O at this point.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Rufus Butterfield]

Just caught this cb go up to the east of me with some heavy rainfall beneath, no thunder though

[Supacell]

Currently northwest of Ripon attempting to intercept the cell near Skipton

[ChannelThunder]

21 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Eh? To me the GFS is the only model that has the system missing the UK completely. ICON appears very good still, ARPEGE doesn't develop an intense feature which is at odds with all the other models. IMO the UKV, NMM, ICON, ECM, UKMO all have something crossing the SE and that's been the consistent theme throughout, was always going to be a SE England event unless I'm missing something.

Not saying the system won't miss the UK, but I'm more in agreement with the Met O at this point.

I was on about Friday for that part of the post rather than Weds but I didn't write it particularly well. I agree that Weds will be a far SE event

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I was on about Friday for that part of the post rather than Weds but I didn't write it particularly well. I agree that Weds will be a far SE event

Oh yeah definitely Friday is way too far out to pin down any details!

Anyway talking about today, Skipton cell possibly supercellular.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Allseasons-Si]

21 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Currently northwest of Ripon attempting to intercept the cell near Skipton

There is another storm to the south of you and looks like they will merge,this would be the third merge with that monster cell that started near Liverpool i think.

[Eagle Eye]

46 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Eh? To me the GFS is the only model that has the system missing the UK completely. ICON appears very good still, ARPEGE doesn't develop an intense feature which is at odds with all the other models. IMO the UKV, NMM, ICON, ECM, UKMO all have something crossing the SE and that's been the consistent theme throughout, was always going to be a SE England event unless I'm missing something.

Not saying the system won't miss the UK, but I'm more in agreement with the Met O at this point.

Hoping for some westward corrections, if a storm won't hit me I'd much rather it go west because of last year...

Possible funnel cloud from storm passing west of me, another time and good lightning from a storm going west of me mid morning. Another time had lightning to the west that somehow managed to light up my whole garden but didn't photograph well from indoors.  Only good storms going east of me were in September and October (although not the most active lightning wise for the October storm the September was surprisingly active for a relatively small Storm).

Edited May 16, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Hoping for some westward corrections, if a storm won't hit me I'd much rather it go west because of last year...

Possible funnel cloud from storm passing west of me, another time and good lightning from a storm going west of me mid morning. Another time had lightning to the west that somehow managed to light up my whole garden but didn't photograph from indoors.  Only good storms going east of me were in September and October (although not the most active lightning wise for the October storm the September one was surprisingly active to be fair).

Judging by the last two days, we've seen greater Theta-W advection westwards than the models have gone for and since Wednesday is a continuation of a similar theme I'm not quite as confident with the forecast.

@Supacell How's your view of that cell that was near Skipton, photographic evidence of the cell will be key here to see if it has exhibited any supercellular characteristics. Too many people nowadays scream Supercell just by radar signature.

[Row w]

I think the chance for storms is over today, looked like there were some showers that had potential but nothing but rain, i really hope there's more forecast for later in the week. Some great videos posted here today of the lucky few who got to see some, enjoyed watching them.

[ChezWeather]

Certainly an interesting looking cell on radar 

[Zak M]

Latest UKV looks pretty stonking for SE England on Wednesday evening..

[ChannelThunder]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Latest UKV looks pretty stonking for SE England on Wednesday evening..

As much as I'd like an unlikely westward correction, storm fans in Sussex/Kent/Essex/Suffolk etc deserve something like that after that MCS killed off their chances last night.

[Bolt from the Blue]

Some photos of last night's storms dancing over the Dorset countryside. Lots of cloud to cloud lightning with soft rumbles as you typically get in these elevated set ups.

[camturbo]

11 minutes ago, Lance M said:

As much as I'd like an unlikely westward correction, storm fans in Sussex/Kent/Essex/Suffolk etc deserve something like that after that MCS killed off their chances last night.

Yep I agree that was unfortunate for that part of the uk it looked game on but alas it wasnt to be.

[camturbo]

4 minutes ago, AIRMET said:

Some photos of last night's storms dancing over the Dorset countryside. Lots of cloud to cloud lightning with soft rumbles as you typically get in these elevated set ups.

Cracking pics there,I watched it from my location though further away,it looked like constant flashes. Heard several distant rumbles

[Mesoscale]

Considering SW Herts hasn't seen a few flashes let alone a thunderstorm for over a year is depressing. 

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, Lance M said:

As much as I'd like an unlikely westward correction, storm fans in Sussex/Kent/Essex/Suffolk etc deserve something like that after that MCS killed off their chances last night.

Nah they don’t, they gobble up 4 out of 5 of the big imports anyway. Let’s have a 100miles westward corection

[Southern Storm]

Hi storm fans 

It's really nice to see other areas getting in on the action, and for those that haven't had a storm yet, your time will come.

Well done to all those that managed to take photos of the storms, there have been some absolute beautiful shots posted on here over the past few days, and hopefully we get some crackers from up north too

Saturday and Sunday are definitely in my all time top ten list, and it's only May! 

Fingers crossed this is just the beginning of a great storm season, and one we will be talking about for years to come!

Here is a selection of some of the pictures taken last night, now that I have had a chance to edit them properly 

[NUT]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

For wednesday in advance

[James1979]

1 hour ago, Southern Storm said:

Hi storm fans 

It's really nice to see other areas getting in on the action, and for those that haven't had a storm yet, your time will come.

Well done to all those that managed to take photos of the storms, there have been some absolute beautiful shots posted on here over the past few days, and hopefully we get some crackers from up north too

Saturday and Sunday are definitely in my all time top ten list, and it's only May! 

Fingers crossed this is just the beginning of a great storm season, and one we will be talking about for years to come!

Here is a selection of some of the pictures taken last night, now that I have had a chance to edit them properly 

Beautiful pics, that last one in particular is a stunner. Jealous!

[Mapantz]

A strike that occurred here last night was quite possibly a CG+

I've had a look at the video and tried to break the frames up, and from what I gathered, there's no branching on the bolt, and there was no visible pulsing from it, just a 

  

Insanely loud, and from around 2 miles away.