Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[StormLoser]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

Agreed - I can already envision how tomorrow evening will pan out (if it doesn't do the eastward shift) - evening storms arriving in Brighton - I sit patiently watching lightning flashes way off to my south - thunder rumbles get louder as it approaches and rain falls overhead, forcing me to dangle from an upstairs window - lightning gets brighter and more frequent as it pushes to my east - mates start texting saying they're having an amazing storm - I reply saying the distant flashes and rumbles sound and look amazing 

I have to sympathise and agree with you. I have genuinely witnessed a storm coming from the south, collapsing, carefully circling Reigate to the east, before resuming its activity as it moves north.

People like us are fated.  

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

I have to sympathise and agree with you. I have genuinely witnessed a storm coming from the south, collapsing, carefully circling Reigate to the east, before resuming its activity as it moves north.

People like us are fated.  

I have generally seen a storm approaching me then splitting, that's my usual fate so I definitely sympathise with you as well

[Allseasons-Si]

Anyone notice the cells around the channel islands?

plus the automotive NW forecast has me down for 57% chance of storms this evening,...hmmm!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Potentially an active night with a probable squall line coming through, quite a well sheared environment   threat of some strong straight line winds or potentially some QLCS type spinups along the line  

[Harry]

A cell has sprung to life mid-channel...radar watching from here on in.

[tomp456]

34 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Anyone notice the cells around the channel islands?

plus the automotive NW forecast has me down for 57% chance of storms this evening,...hmmm!

I've had a storm when the predictor was on 0%. Pay no attention to them.

[Harry]

12z UKV looking as amazing for tomorrow evening - let’s hope it’s the start of trend and not an outlier 

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

12z UKV looking as amazing for tomorrow evening - let’s hope it’s the start of trend and not an outlier 

Its almost definitely a trend

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

44 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Anyone notice the cells around the channel islands?

plus the automotive NW forecast has me down for 57% chance of storms this evening,...hmmm!

In Barnsley?

it’s so clear here at the moment. Evolution looking surprising we could just get a storm out of this tonight

[Guest]

Oooh I can hear thunder!!!

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Oooh I can hear thunder!!!

I thought I heard something a few minutes ago, just looked at the radar to see a rather juicy looking shower not far off the coast 

[Guest]

Defo thunder, must be high up IC being carried in on the wind. Im hearing more rumbles than is being recorded on the lightning detectors.

[Mapantz]

Torrential rain here.

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Defo thunder, must be high up IC being carried in on the wind. Im hearing more rumbles than is being recorded on the lightning detectors.

Are you sure that's not the firing at Lulworth ranges? It's been insanely loud here today..

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Torrential rain here.

Are you sure that's not the firing at Lulworth ranges? It's been insanely loud here today..

I thought that, but it wasn’t the usual thud you get with lulworth. 

[R Alto]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Torrential rain here.

Are you sure that's not the firing at Lulworth ranges? It's been insanely loud here today..

Yes that's what I thought, as you say its been loud on the ranges today!

[Southern Storm]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Torrential rain here.

Are you sure that's not the firing at Lulworth ranges? It's been insanely loud here today..

This the view to may west, around Poole, It certainly looks dark enough to be a storm. The picture doesn't do it justice

[ChannelThunder]

Just got on the ferry at Southampton, and the skies are looking nice and convective! Safe to say I'll have a nice view of anything stormy for the next hour.

[Sam jackson88]

the air in southampton has gone so oppressive and heavy, the hair on my arms is standing through the staic the air carries, lets hope we get a show. havent felt the air this charged since 2018/19

Edited May 17, 2022 by Sam jackson88

[Gonzolio Martinez]

52 minutes ago, Harry said:

12z UKV looking as amazing for tomorrow evening - let’s hope it’s the start of trend and not an outlier 

Are you able to post some, please? I don't have access

[ChannelThunder]

Just now, Gonzolio Martinez said:

Are you able to post some, please? I don't have access

To your surprise I'm sure; you do have access! 

Netweather made UKV free to all last year

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv

 

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Gonzolio Martinez said:

Are you able to post some, please? I don't have access

You do have access -  click below

UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Gonzolio Martinez said:

Are you able to post some, please? I don't have access

Serpent for tea tomorrow evening

 

[jake44]

tonight could be a good chance for ramsgate south east kent coast to see thunderstorms later tonight

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, jake44 said:

tonight could be a good chance for ramsgate south east kent coast to see thunderstorms later tonight

I am not too convinced about that at the moment @jake44. I'm not seeing much in the way of instability getting into the SE tonight based on current models. If those models are correct, then while there is a shower risk in the next few hours, they are unlikely to be electrified...this is playing out at the moment by the lightning detectors, which show that lightning is not getting far beyond northern France. IF (and its a big IF) the heat today has generated enough local energy and/or some of that juice across N France can be drawn ahead of the front, then there may be a few sparks. But I'm not optimistic at the moment.

As for tomorrow evening - Ramsgate seems to me to be an amazing place to be located!!!

[Woollymummy]

21 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:

the air in southampton has gone so oppressive and heavy, the hair on my arms is standing through the staic the air carries, lets hope we get a show. havent felt the air this charged since 2018/19

Same here, I had to lie down, heat in Oxfordshire too much, too soon. Just clouded over a little now, first time for hours.