Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[sunnijim]

I might be repeating somthing discussed already,just popping in quickly!

It was a little frustrating to see the right 'dynamics' on offer last night from Portsmouth Westward, some good activity making landfall there but points East of this ( including the French side) We had a weakening of any cells mid channel on their approach.

It had looked more promising earlier in the day as a couple of heavy showers intensified over the Sussex coast.

I did witness spectacular lightning and distant thunder from the mid channel cell between Brighton and IOW.

Noted a member saying the cloud tops were 38.000 feet on that one and it seemed to have some suoercell characteristics,the lightning being fired was incredible and as I said last night that coupled with the full moon shining made for some beautiful scenes.

[Dangerous55019]

Starting to turn really quite warm in the sun now… Really muggy as well.

This is my view to my south.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Mizzle said:

And one more from me, the best capture of the night!!

 

 

 

Wow just amazing...so beautifull..nature eh....

[Supacell]

@bensainsbury

I did see some more lightning closer to the coast last night from Bognor Regis. I then chased storms northwards towards Guildford. Overall I would say not a lot of lightning but some were quite spectacular. Especially the crawlers out to sea. Cheers for your advice last night.

Onto today. Back home in Belper, not had a lot of sleep but looks possible for something this afternoon. My thoughts are I need to be a bit north of here (maybe Sheffield northwards). Met Office forecasting thunderstorms all afternoon here, which seems a bit OTT. Some interesting forecasts out for this afternoon though.

[Frosty hollows]

Cell just electrified over Gloucester

[Dangerous55019]

Looks like something is starting to kick off over the Cheltenham/Gloucester area.

Plus the remains of the Norfolk storm now slowly heading out into the North Sea. 

[matty40s]

Trying to get this  boat in the shed before the line of storms reaches Daventry...

[Derbyshire_snow]

24 minutes ago, Supacell said:

@bensainsbury

I did see some more lightning closer to the coast last night from Bognor Regis. I then chased storms northwards towards Guildford. Overall I would say not a lot of lightning but some were quite spectacular. Especially the crawlers out to sea. Cheers for your advice last night.

Onto today. Back home in Belper, not had a lot of sleep but looks possible for something this afternoon. My thoughts are I need to be a bit north of here (maybe Sheffield northwards). Met Office forecasting thunderstorms all afternoon here, which seems a bit OTT. Some interesting forecasts out for this afternoon though.

What area would you suggest is best for Storms around Sheffield I live just to the South East of Sheffield.

[TJS1998Tom]

Now getting blue sky and the suns coming out, hopefully some action later

[UnderTheAnvil]

Me and pup just got soaked but we got our first rumbles of the year!

[Liam Burge]

Looks very interesting for tomorrow.

[Cyclonic Destruction]

Last night, before, during and after.

Gillingham N Dorset 

[Supacell]

21 minutes ago, Derbyshire_snow said:

What area would you suggest is best for Storms around Sheffield I live just to the South East of Sheffield.

Anywhere in Sheffield is at risk but if you are able to drive I would say just north of the city best placed. For most intense and highest likelihood of storms you want to be under this convergence zone

[ChannelThunder]

Quick lunch break post to drop in my pics from last night, which aren't as good as I hoped for...

The pics don't do justice to the ridiculous amount of high-based storms that just kept on spawning from the Channel and their relentless lightning in all directions. Never known 6 hours' worth of near- continuous lightning to occur in the UK in the same place! Missed a lot of epic CGs due to rain, pointing the camera at the wrong storm, changing batteries/settings and the fact I drained ALL of my batteries for the first time ever in one go!

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Only me the thunderstorm nutter in our house would sleep through not 1 but 2 storms last night with both windows open.. 

I cant sleep with the curtains open as my fiancé is epileptic so frequent lightning at night can very easily trigger a fit even when asleep 

Just to rub it in my middle brother text me at 22:40 saying check out the storm.. Didn't wake up 

Then my neighbour on my way to work said "did you see that epic storm at 4am"

 

Idiot... 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Surrey

[Liam Burge]

14 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Quick lunch break post to drop in my pics from last night, which aren't as good as I hoped for...

The pics don't do justice to the ridiculous amount of high-based storms that just kept on spawning from the Channel and their relentless lightning in all directions. Never known 6 hours' worth of near- continuous lightning to occur in the UK in the same place! Missed a lot of epic CGs due to rain, pointing the camera at the wrong storm, changing batteries/settings and the fact I drained ALL of my batteries for the first time ever in one go!

 

Those are some beautiful photos! Up here we could see the same storm! If this is already happening in mid-may, I'm excited about what the summer has to offer!

[Mizzle]

19 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Quick lunch break post to drop in my pics from last night, which aren't as good as I hoped for...

The pics don't do justice to the ridiculous amount of high-based storms that just kept on spawning from the Channel and their relentless lightning in all directions. Never known 6 hours' worth of near- continuous lightning to occur in the UK in the same place! Missed a lot of epic CGs due to rain, pointing the camera at the wrong storm, changing batteries/settings and the fact I drained ALL of my batteries for the first time ever in one go!

 

Watching from the Solent last night, I have to agree...it was certainly spectacular and for the first time ever we had to head home while the lightning was still active. An amazing night.

[It's a Philcast]

Just woken up by thunder in Bromsgrove North Worcestershire...storm slowly building up and heading over south Brum.

[TJS1998Tom]

Still a lot of cloud about at the moment

[Zak M]

Turkey towers galore here

[pad199207]

Quite the hailstorm in Liverpool thunder just heard 

[Allseasons-Si]

I am in a severe slot and i am surprised no one has posted these...

------------------------------------

Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 16 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 17 May 2022

ISSUED 06:51 UTC Mon 16 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

At 06z Monday, an instability axis extended from Merseyside to East Anglia as a tongue of relatively high 850hPa Theta-W continues to sporadically destabilise in the vicinity of a marked trough lifting northeastwards. As such, pockets of showery rain are likely along this zone, and a few elevated thunderstorms continue to be a possibility - earlier CAM guidance had suggested a relative uptick in activity for a while on Monday morning in eastern England, for example. This instability plume will slowly weaken and clear to the North Sea, and thereafter the attention largely turns the post-trough environment as increasing amounts of sunshine and resultant surface heating will yield 400-900 J/kg CAPE beneath a zone of cool mid-levels stretching from Northern Ireland/north of Ireland across to the Midlands and northern England.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms appear likely to develop in these areas, drifting to the northeast, during the afternoon and first half of the evening. Forecast profiles suggest cloud tops in the strongest cells could exceed 30,000ft, and while shear is modest for much of the day a small mid-level jet maxima will run across the north Midlands and northern England during the late afternoon and evening hours, and so during this timeframe cells may become a bit more organised and longer-lasting. Some CAM guidance suggests thunderstorms may grow into a small cluster over northern England (especially Yorkshire) during the evening hours, perhaps even scope for a supercell given the magnitude of CAPE (over 800 J/kg) and increasing shear. If a strong storm can evolve later in the day, then it may produce hail 2.0-2.5cm in diameter and as such have tentatively included a SVR. Given the slack flow across NW and NE England, these areas would be favourable for perhaps a couple of convergence-driven funnel clouds.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

and Estofex.

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

camera fully charged but no chasing this time as my car is stationary at the moment.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Allseasons-si
added info

[Supacell]

@Allseasons-si You may not need to chase today. You look quite well placed.

I'm currently between Barnsley and Wakefield. Nothing of note yet but is still early in the afternoon for storms.

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Supacell said:

@Allseasons-si You may not need to chase today. You look quite well placed.

I'm currently between Barnsley and Wakefield. Nothing of note yet but is still early in the afternoon for storms.

Hopefully i am but as in the nature of showers/storms they are hit and miss,good luck to you also.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Jordan Naylor]

Cell tracking NNE of Liverpool delivering some more lightning now. Can just about hear it in Chorley. Typical all small cells earlier today headed NE which would have been a direct hit, but this one seems to be heading more NNE and will skim past to the west of me.