Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

Someone I know on Discrod managed to get these

 

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Need to be careful about getting carried away for Wednesday night as this looks primarily a SE England event. Regardless, as I see it today the majority of the models have a large MCS ploughing NE across SE England. Decent instability, Strong Shear, Steep Lapse Rates all a recipe for a cracking event, but as always these have a tendency to shift eastwards. But one to keep an eye on as we're only 48-72 hours out.

Yeah, I just looked at the latest UKV and it shifts it another 70 miles to the east, what is the point of me trying ? We have not have a proper plume storm here since 2019.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, The Tall Weatherman said:

Yeah, I just looked at the latest UKV and it shifts it another 70 miles to the east, what is the point of me trying ? We have not have a proper plume storm here since 2019.

Keep going, it'll happen someday and you will want to be on it, here in the SE I have to had a direct plume hit since 2019 (we had the 6AM Storm last year but most lightning was well east of me and only a couple came close) and 70% of plume storms since then have gone one side or the other of me too far to be viewable (in fact Surface Based storms have been better for me recently especially July 20th and either the 24th or 25th last yea). I know that one day I'll have one that will be a direct hit and I'll be ready for that day

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

After all that waiting, I’ve finally been greeted to a loud boom of thunder!!! 

[Azazel]

Today has got Lincolnshire written all over it - I'm gonna go with Liverpool across to Hull though seeing something possibly severe later today.

[Poppybee15]

I hadn't heard thunderstorm since the first thunderstorm watch of this year

[TJS1998Tom]

10 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Today has got Lincolnshire written all over it - I'm gonna go with Liverpool across to Hull though seeing something possibly severe later today.

With our luck we'll be brewing the storms and Hull ends up getting them

[Norfolk Sheep]

15 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

After all that waiting, I’ve finally been greeted to a loud boom of thunder!!! 

I can see your boom from the upstairs window....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, Norfolk Sheep said:

I can see your boom from the upstairs window....

Got a very high base to it, and seen a few orange/yellow flashes. Another little one following on behind it. 

[Harry's House]

9 hours ago, Harry's House said:

Don't know if I will have any more thunder tonight. Incidentally, today was my first day of thunder since 4th October last year. 

Did get a just little more thunder around 2.45 this morning in the distance. 

[Liam Burge]

Last night was absolutely beautiful! I could see both the thunderstorms from my area (the Yeovil thunderstorm and Lyme Regis one). Having no rain or thunder associated with the storms just makes it seem so much more special. 

[BrickFielder]

Tricky to forecast storms again today. Some early storms in East Anglia and broad band of cloud moving North is likely to become reinvigorated from midday onwards. Low level wind convergence is forecast and this could be a further spark for storm development, with the Liverpool  and Manchester area being of particular interest.

Looking at the Eumetsat satellite images then I see the suggestion of a split upper trough. This would give us clearing skies with storms forming in a line shortly afterwards. These would be surface based and with highish tops although with limited wind shear. This split could disappear or the trough angle change so that no storms develop but it does mean the forecast modelling will be slightly wrong since there has already been a slight deviation at upper levels. Back to radar watching.

[Neilsouth]

A complete bust for Kent! That dead MCS scuppered the storms for us sadly

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

A complete bust for Kent! That dead MCS scuppered the storms for us sadly

Yup! Can see what could have been by looking at the storms that pushed in further west. I suspect that MCS ate up some of the available energy across France, it was sadly surfaced based so died in the channel and left little energy behind for further development. 

Ironic really..

[TropicThunder]

A good night down here in the end, had several hours of lightning albeit mostly too distant to hear thunder. Went to bed after 1 only to be woken again by loud booming thunder and a few bright flashes at around 3 am. Dorset hit the jackpot though so pleased for everyone there, it's nice it didn't all shift east for once!

Got this brief video of lightning across the sky, the pilots in that plane had front row seats lol.

 

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone.

I see that the U.K. Meto have just issued a thunderstorm warning for today. ⛈

Good luck to everyone with these storms today. ?⛈

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

39 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Yup! Can see what could have been by looking at the storms that pushed in further west. I suspect that MCS ate up some of the available energy across France, it was sadly surfaced based so died in the channel and left little energy behind for further development. 

Ironic really..

That scene from There Will Be Blood sums this up perfectly - where he gets the straw and drinks the other guys milkshake - essentially suggesting he will suck all the oil out from under his neighbour’s land…

This is a phenomenon all too frequent now with imports. Lost count of the number of busts because the energy was all exhausted in the channel. Pah.

[Eagle Eye]

9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

That scene from There Will Be Blood sums this up perfectly - where he gets the straw and drinks the other guys milkshake - essentially suggesting he will suck all the oil out from under his neighbour’s land…

This is a phenomenon all too frequent now with imports. Lost count of the number of busts because the energy was all exhausted in the channel. Pah.

 Very little SB CAPE on some models over France on Wednesday but strong MUCAPE suggest higher chance of elevated storms forming without SB storms taking the energy and so I'm being hopeful but it'll end up being the same thing again probably

Edited May 16, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Dangerous55019]

Flintshire weather update……..

Just been out to walk the dog; grey and muggy after the overnight rain. But the cloud is starting to break, and the sun is breaking through. ?⛈

[Mizzle]

Caught a lovely show from the seafront at Lee-on-Solent last night. I love how the lightning reveals the cloudscapes from the blackness.

   

 

[alexisj9]

9 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Nothing good as of yet but a few flickers a while ago, cell I was watching seems to have lost its lightning activity now though 

That's when I gave up for the night.

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Keep going, it'll happen someday and you will want to be on it, here in the SE I have to had a direct plume hit since 2019 (we had the 6AM Storm last year but most lightning was well east of me and only a couple came close) and 70% of plume storms since then have gone one side or the other of me too far to be viewable (in fact Surface Based storms have been better for me recently especially July 20th and either the 24th or 25th last yea). I know that one day I'll have one that will be a direct hit and I'll be ready for that day

 

That 6 am  storm wasn't bad at all here,only proper hit from last year. Had a few distant rumbles from the channel though I suppose, nothing wanted to make it in land.

[Mizzle]

And one more from me, the best capture of the night!!

 

 

 

[TJS1998Tom]

I've seen some peoples forecast for today and I notice severer storm chances for Lincolnshire, though we have lots of overcast cloud at the moment

[MikeUpjohn]

Looks like a few cells popped up nearby. One over Knutsford, and one in the Pennies. No lightning as yet...