Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Wivenswold]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

I am not too convinced about that at the moment @jake44. I'm not seeing much in the way of instability getting into the SE tonight based on current models. If those models are correct, then while there is a shower risk in the next few hours, they are unlikely to be electrified...this is playing out at the moment by the lightning detectors, which show that lightning is not getting far beyond northern France. IF (and its a big IF) the heat today has generated enough local energy and/or some of that juice across N France can be drawn ahead of the front, then there may be a few sparks. But I'm not optimistic at the moment.

As for tomorrow evening - Ramsgate seems to me to be an amazing place to be located!!!

Yeah, pretty universal agreement that the band of showers across the Channel will fade soon. Not ruling out a storm but I always alert my friend in Battle of storm risks and he's not getting a warning yet. 

[ChannelThunder]

Yeah, don't get too excited about this evening guys, it's only likely to be a few flashes here and there. Tomorrow night, for the SE, is the 'one'.

[jake44]

21 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Yeah, pretty universal agreement that the band of showers across the Channel will fade soon. Not ruling out a storm but I always alert my friend in Battle of storm risks and he's not getting a warning yet. 

uhh ok so tomorrow night is a better chance?

[Janefroggy]

Blue skies here all day in west midlands, gone very cloudy and windy in the last hour, not expecting any action coming my way tonight  

[Josh Rubio]

26 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Yeah, don't get too excited about this evening guys, it's only likely to be a few flashes here and there. Tomorrow night, for the SE, is the 'one'.

Looks pretty juicy for parts of the East Midlands, too. 
 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Josh Rubio

[Woollymummy]

30 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Same here, I had to lie down, heat in Oxfordshire too much, too soon. Just clouded over a little now, first time for hours.

Closer, closer…

 

 

I miss decent storms

SO MUCH

Edited May 17, 2022 by Woollymummy

[Mapantz]

ECM for tomorrow;

 

[Harry]

13 minutes ago, jake44 said:

uhh ok so tomorrow night is a better chance?

Based on current modelling yes. Best thing to do is check @Nick F’s storm forecast on here and @staplehurst’s convective forecast on Convective Weather tomorrow. 
 

What is intriguing about this evening is how capped the sky is and a front is really not that far away. 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Harry

[jake44]

whoa im hoping to see a good show tomorrow night this looks insane

[The Tall Weatherman]

My bedroom window will be catching it all tomorrow!!

[Azazel]

Wasn’t expecting it to rain today but here we are

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I can’t wait for the supercell in one hour

[aaliyah]

it’s gone darkish over stoke

[Arnie Pie]

Lashing down in Brum atm

[BrickFielder]

Just now, Harry said:

Based on current modelling yes. Best thing to do is check @Nick F’s storm forecast on here and @staplehurst’s convective forecast on Convective Weather tomorrow. 

Probably a good idea. The general idea is that storms develop towards France in a destabilizing plume and then get exported across the channel into the south east. 

This chart shows the elevated plume crossing the UK but notice the time on the chart (6pm) and also the steerage winds for storms which is more from Normandy than the red hot interior of France.  Destabilisation of a plume can occur into the evening due to cooling aloft and across Normandy.

 

So the next question is where does it start and what is the trigger. Precipitation starts out late afternoon in the south west which trundles north east. Further and more significant destabilisation is suggested towards Southampton and Normandy which looks like spreading across the south east.

This looks like precipitation is linked to surface humidity. Spanish plumes tend to give elevated storms so why would surface conditions affect things ?

UKV modelling is linking precipitation to low level wind convergence. Looking at the source of low level air ,it looks like it is being sourced from central France.

So we have hot humid air from the continent under cutting a destabilising plume moving north eastward. Very complicated for forecast models to get right and I am not even sure I am reading things correctly.  There are so many things that could be wrong and it is best to wait till tomorrow.

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Look at this Tomorrow! I just noticed some possible Strong storms at the back of the storm, just saying but it probably won’t turn out like this.

[TJS1998Tom]

1 hour ago, Josh Rubio said:

Looks pretty juicy for parts of the East Midlands, too. 
 

 

Hopefully some Lincolnshire goodness given Lincolnshire tends to be a classic spot for storms

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’m confident we will get a few sparks this evening. To be honest it’s looking like a late squall - so I would imagine a couple of embedded and short-lived electrical cells cannot be ruled-out as it passes across the SE over the next 2-3 hours

[Harry]

Ooh….strike close to IoW - imagine some of you who live there will be hearing rumbling. Definitely the furthest north strike we’ve had thus far

[Lu.]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Ooh….strike close to IoW - imagine some of you who live there will be hearing rumbling. Definitely the furthest north strike we’ve had thus far

Aye, that was a nice long rumble with plenty of rain…

[Arnie Pie]

2nd line approaching Birmingham shortly..... CZ setting up

Possibly last chance saloon, although not confident of any sparks

Edited May 17, 2022 by Arnie Pie

[Purplepixii]

Daughter reporting thunderstorm in Portsmouth, I can hear the rumbles from it here.

[Mapantz]

Bubbling up on that line crossing the IoW

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Bubbling up on that line crossing the IoW

"NICE"

[tomp456]

Not bad looking convective skies.....shame there's nowt electrical!

Not going to get my hopes up for tomorrow (OK, I am) ... for a decent light show over the channel late tomorrow evening!