Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Biggin]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Upgrade upgrade upgrade

Where ???

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Biggin said:

Where ???

The U.K., and eastern parts of Iceland

[Justin1705]

Well I'm laying on brighton beach. May lay here till 9pm. I have a sea view hotel room until tommorow. Turns out my bday was yday and I was here getting drunk. Now to top it off the forecast looks meaty for me today. I will Record from the beach and or my room tonightguys, however could someone tell me how quick should I get off the beach !! If it gets real.

 

if tonight comes off. My 21st birthday would deffo be one to remember. 
 

anyway off to enjoy the day and the sunny weather. Watch this space guys on the frontline !!

Edited May 18, 2022 by Justin1705

[Harry]

Thanks @BrickFielder - whilst a little excited at the prospect of some thunder and lightning, I too have been a little concerned about reasonably limited instability showing on models.

Yes there could be some torrential rain but if the CAPE doesn’t materialise it won’t be electrified. 

CAPE extends from IOW to EA but it is marginal - the best CAPE seems to be further east, with a pool of decent CAPE over C/E Kent, Essex and Suffolk.

The radars are showing a lot of precip breaking out too which could impact how much of those outbreaks are electrified further. 

Time will tell.

[Liam Burge]

5 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Well I'm laying on brighton beach. May lay here till 9pm. I have a sea view hotel room until tommorow. Turns out my bday was yday and I was here getting drunk. Now to top it off the forecast looks meaty for me today. I will Record from the beach and or my room tonightguys, however could someone tell me how quick should I get off the beach !! If it gets real.

 

if tonight comes off. My 21st birthday would deffo be one to remember. 
 

anyway off to enjoy the day and the sunny weather. Watch this space guys on the frontline !!

Happy birthday! Hope you had a good day. You should see some good activity over there, enjoy!

[Justin1705]

3 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Happy birthday! Hope you had a good day. You should see some good activity over there, enjoy!

Hahaha many thanks man. I hope so. However people seem to be saying it's marginal so we will take it as it goes. There must be some reasoning behind net, convective and met offices upgrades. 
 

however I do understand conditions have to be perfect. Suns out here and already very warm in brighton,  a lot warmer than forecast and the claggy grey cloud forecast is nowhere to be seen. So in-line with this I do expect cape values to be on the higher end of the spectrum today. 

 

Thanks for the happy birthday have a great day and good luck everyone.

 

ps either way today, nothing will happen until tonight. So enjoy the sun have a beer, if your not at work, and get some jobs done and before you know it the end of the day will be here !!

[Badgers01]

18 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

Thank you for the very informative and scientific analysis … certainly should serve as a reminder to temper expectations a little ..!?? 
 

I remain hopeful being geographically well placed should things occur but will not be tempted to tell the neighbours storms incoming just yet ..! 

[James1979]

Estofex nearly always bang on over the years so looks like game over for  here at least. 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, James1979 said:

so looks like game over for  here at least

No, absolutely not.

[Liam Burge]

3 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Estofex nearly always bang on over the years so looks like game over for  here at least. 

Please give proof of Estofex being bang on, I was under the opposite illusion.

[StormLoser]

25 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Well I'm laying on brighton beach. May lay here till 9pm. I have a sea view hotel room until tommorow. Turns out my bday was yday and I was here getting drunk. Now to top it off the forecast looks meaty for me today. I will Record from the beach and or my room tonightguys, however could someone tell me how quick should I get off the beach !! If it gets real.

 

if tonight comes off. My 21st birthday would deffo be one to remember. 
 

anyway off to enjoy the day and the sunny weather. Watch this space guys on the frontline !!

 

Happy 21st! I hope your wish comes true. Don't get legless... (as in the photo...) 

[sheikhy]

Feels a lot fresher today so that is quite concerning at the moment!!need that humid feel for those humdingers!!!

[tomp456]

So....

 

Who's all in for the Kent Clipper version 234234234 tonight? 

[Justin1705]

4 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Happy 21st! I hope your wish comes true. Don't get legless... (as in the photo...) 

haha love it  thanks man!

Edited May 18, 2022 by Justin1705

[Eagle Eye]

30 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Well I'm laying on brighton beach. May lay here till 9pm. I have a sea view hotel room until tommorow. Turns out my bday was yday and I was here getting drunk. Now to top it off the forecast looks meaty for me today. I will Record from the beach and or my room tonightguys, however could someone tell me how quick should I get off the beach !! If it gets real.

 

if tonight comes off. My 21st birthday would deffo be one to remember. 
 

anyway off to enjoy the day and the sunny weather. Watch this space guys on the frontline !!

Happy 21st birthday and good luck.
Only time will tell what will happen today

[Justin1705]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

Happy 21st birthday and good luck.
Only time will tell what will happen today

Yeah I'm easy either way it's been great the warm sun is more than enough for me storms are a bonus.

 

thanks a lot have a great day !

[camturbo]

1 minute ago, Justin1705 said:

Yeah I'm easy either way it's been great the warm sun is more than enough for me storms are a bonus.

 

thanks a lot have a great day !

Happy birthday dude enjoy!! Dont get to burnt though and get sun stroke then miss the storms lol

Have a great day

[Azazel]

I see a few comments regarding limited lightning potential this far west, but that doesn't bother me in the slightest. Would rather see interesting structure than strobe lightning.

Obviously both would be excellent. 

Last time I saw some interesting structure in daylight hours was all the way back in 2013.

[Justin1705]

3 minutes ago, camturbo said:

Happy birthday dude enjoy!! Dont get to burnt though and get sun stroke then miss the storms lol

Have a great day

Back to the room now it's very hot need to put the shorts on

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Estofex only give us the thick yellow and a tiny bit of 1. It ain’t the greatest forecast from them… This is what Europe gets on a quiet day

However, science tells us that tonight is a complicated set-up with lots of interdependent features and caveats which could send it either way - so I’m not disheartened.

pros: France has strong capping - this means less of the energy available will go to feeding their usual SB activity as it passes out into the sea on it’s usual trip to the outer edges of Kent (or Lincs) - so tonight we will hopefully see initiation over water which is what happened back in July 2014 (iirc) when I saw one of the best UK storms of my life

cons: 

1 we live in the uk, lol

2 confidence seems to be sketchy. This certainly isn’t a done deal - and an eastward correction can’t be ruled out

3 rain oh rain. If you’re not far enough east you might find the real activity happening ‘the other side of the curtain’. Happened to me last time I went to Firle to watch storms come in 2020 (I think), and missed out as everything was about 25 miles away on the other side of torrential rain.

—

I don’t think tonight will be as dramatic as many people claim, but I’ll still head out in case.

[Eagle Eye]

9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

 

1 we live in the uk, lol

 

I think that describes the last 4.53 billion years of storm activity.

Although imagine being in the UK on Pangea in the mid Atlantic and slightly further south with less of a channel as well.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[tomp456]

wow, looking at the latest AROME run, it looks like my location misses out on virtually all of the precip.

Will still hopefully get a good light show out in the channel though! 

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

wow, looking at the latest AROME run, it looks like my location misses out on virtually all of the precip.

Will still hopefully get a good light show out in the channel though! 

Don’t take any notice of that @tomp456. You also forget they are in 3 hour increments - the stuff to your west will move and develop NE and the further wave will move from your S - so if it plays out like that it’d be incredible for you to miss out completely 

[Ben Sainsbury]

ESTOFEX are a team of very talented forecasters but as they focus on Europe as a whole I feel like sometimes they can miss out a fair bit of local detail, so I’d pay more attention to the text rather than the chart.

[alexisj9]

19 hours ago, Alderc said:

Oooh I can hear thunder!!!

Luck, I barely even got rain here. Just a little.