Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Liam Burge]

48 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:

Could I possibly please ask. I love in wendover and have an autistic son. He doesn't like thunder. Do you think Aylesbury will see any so I can prepare him in advance?

Thank you for any help. 

Hey! I hope you and your son stay calm during today. I can totally understand his freight. You are under a thunderstorm warning from the MetOffice. This doesn't mean you will definitely get thunderstorms, just that there is a general risk in your area of thunderstorms developing. It's very hard to predict where thunderstorms in the UK will hit as our weather is influenced by so many different sources so we can't say for definite if you will or won't see thunder.

I would recommend that you just explain to him that bad weather could be on the way and try and calm him the best you can when/if thunderstorms happen. Even if you don't have thunderstorms, you will most likely have some very heavy / possibly torrential rainfall so be safe tonight.

[Sun & Tanned]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

Hey! I hope you and your son stay calm during today. I can totally understand his freight. You are under a thunderstorm warning from the MetOffice. This doesn't mean you will definitely get thunderstorms, just that there is a general risk in your area of thunderstorms developing. It's very hard to predict where thunderstorms in the UK will hit as our weather is influenced by so many different sources so we can't say for definite if you will or won't see thunder.

I would recommend that you just explain to him that bad weather could be on the way and try and calm him the best you can when/if thunderstorms happen. Even if you don't have thunderstorms, you will most likely have some very heavy / possibly torrential rainfall so be safe tonight.

Thank you very much, I really appreciate it everyone. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Oooh la la i'm in the firing line again! Let's see if my storm can make it over the channel this time!! Died at IOW last time so it was a no show for me

[JoeShmoe]

Sorry to be really IMBY but im flying out of London City tonight at 8pm and they usually ground flights there at the drop of a hat, is all this supposed to kick off later in the evening?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Oh i've just see Brickfielders forecast. Ok not excited any more ... Another no show on the cards. Kent clipper inbound lol

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, Liam Burge said:

Please give proof of Estofex being bang on, I was under the opposite illusion.

Usually they are fairly accurate, but I can think of a classic of ours where they got it wrong, and that was the 4th July 2015. Most of N France was under a level 2, only for the cap to hold firm over there and then destabilisation kicked in at 23:00, where as we famously know, the cap broke over Bournemouth and the rest was history! 

[Josh Rubio]

I’ve seen so many conflicting posts before the show has even started - some are saying it’s a no show, others saying it’ll only be a Kent clipper, limited lightning etc. 

Surely it’s too early to say anything at this point? 

[TJS1998Tom]

How likely is it looking for Lincoln tonight? Seen some models showing heavy rain forecast over our area

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I’ve seen so many conflicting posts before the show has even started - some are saying it’s a no show, others saying it’ll only be a Kent clipper, limited lightning etc. 

Surely it’s too early to say anything at this point? 

Certainly the further north you are the less likely it will be for thunder this evening. The area with most realistic chance is from a line between IoW and Norwich south and eastwards. That said the highest instability will reside across areas east and south of London, so even in this region there are variables.

[thunderhead 2005]

This gives me June 1996 storm vibes, storms formed in the west around Devon and moved east. It seems different that the normal Kent clipper we normally get. 

[Azazel]

definitely starting to feel a bit warmer/muggier in the office now. 

I'm confused about the "kent clipper" stuff though - aren't the storms forming along an axis roughly SW (as far west as Devon I've seen on some models) to NE and travelling NE rather than straight up from France?  The synoptics feel very different to the usual import scenario.

 

Kind of reminds me of May 1999 when storms came up from the south west. Best storm I've ever seen in the UK. Green sky, day darkness, hail, lightning, striation, rotation. It was all there!

[Liam Burge]

13 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I’ve seen so many conflicting posts before the show has even started - some are saying it’s a no show, others saying it’ll only be a Kent clipper, limited lightning etc. 

Surely it’s too early to say anything at this point? 

To be honest, no one completely knows what will happen. There's a high chance of thunderstorms developing SOMEWHERE but we don't know where, the best guess at this current moment is within the yellow warning that the MetOffice has issued. People saying that it's a bust / no show before the event has even started are the people who aren't getting in on the event, so don't listen to those people. We can never truly tell if an event is a no show after the fact.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

This gives me June 1996 storm vibes, storms formed in the west around Devon and moved east. It seems different that the normal Kent clipper we normally get. 

How did you get Devon from the forecasts? You might see some distant tops lighting up - but I wouldn’t get too excited unless you’re CS or east of that

[Josh Rubio]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

How did you get Devon from the forecasts? You might see some distant tops lighting up - but I wouldn’t get too excited unless you’re CS or east of that

He wasn’t talking about tonight.. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just an advisory to avoid lots of disappointment tomo - there are a lot of conflicting forecasts, but the best ones are Netweather, estofex, CW, Metcheck and UKWW - plus some really good posts by some more seasoned posters on this forum .
 

Analytical forecasts might not tell you what you want to hear - but if you want the best idea of where stuff *might* kick off this is the best thing to read.

 

even the central south might not get the storms mentioned. Best bet is probably Sussex eastwards. Don’t get your hopes up and they won’t get dashed… there is always the chance no lightning will make it into the U.K. at all tonight!

 

the only thing to be sure of is to have battery in your camera and space for video and photos

 

ohh and don’t forget your tripod

Just now, Josh Rubio said:

He wasn’t talking about tonight.. 

ah sorry too many posts to read in short space of time

[Harry]

I would suggest radar and lightning detector watching from 6pm this evening, when should start to see the first showers forming  somewhere between IoW and the Cherbourg peninsula in N France. Then it’s watching, waiting and hopefully sky gazing

The milky high clouds are starting to move in from the south now, indicating the plume beginning to drift in - although what we want to see is the moisture in the mid-levels increasing as this is where any storms will be developing.

[thunderhead 2005]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

How did you get Devon from the forecasts? You might see some distant tops lighting up - but I wouldn’t get too excited unless you’re CS or east of that

From Met Office forecast I saw that's where the storms are forming from and moving into Wiltshire and Hampshire, Moving NNE  

[Frosty.]

Hey guys, just catching up…I don’t normally post in here… I’m a model output man!… . ….. but I do read the comments, albeit after the event.. or not, as the case may be!?.. anyway..enough waffling from me..buckle up Dorothy, Kansas is about to go bye bye! …good luck everybody.. follow the white rabbit into the  matrix.. jeez I’m still living in 1999!! .. …the best of luck regarding the storm potential this evening and tonight in parts of the u k! …ENJOY! ⛈ ⛈ ⛈   

Edited May 18, 2022 by jon snow

[Andy Bown]

25 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Kind of reminds me of May 1999 when storms came up from the south west. Best storm I've ever seen in the UK. Green sky, day darkness, hail, lightning, striation, rotation. It was all there!

Don’t wish to derail the thread, however was that a Saturday afternoon? The middle of a trio of fantastic storm outbreaks in 6 days. The Thursday evening spectacular elevated storms, the Saturday an afternoon MCS, the following Tuesday a night time spectacle.

[Sunny76]

45 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I’ve seen so many conflicting posts before the show has even started - some are saying it’s a no show, others saying it’ll only be a Kent clipper, limited lightning etc. 

Surely it’s too early to say anything at this point? 

I think London will get hit later. Just have a feeling. 

4 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Don’t wish to derail the thread, however was that a Saturday afternoon? The middle of a trio of fantastic storm outbreaks in 6 days. The Thursday evening spectacular elevated storms, the Saturday an afternoon MCS, the following Tuesday a night time spectacle.

I remember late May 1999 on a Thursday night bringing some overnight storms in London. This period was quite humid and warm.

Another nighttime storm hit around early July on a Sunday night, during another hot spell.

 

[Azazel]

8 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Don’t wish to derail the thread, however was that a Saturday afternoon? The middle of a trio of fantastic storm outbreaks in 6 days. The Thursday evening spectacular elevated storms, the Saturday an afternoon MCS, the following Tuesday a night time spectacle.

I have a feeling it was either the last day of May or the 30th - i remember we flew out to Florida the next day. It was definitely mid-afternoon here. 

I hadn't watched the weather forecast and I wasn't on the internet back then.

I remember climbing a tree in the woods, as you do when you're that age and spotting a beautiful picture book anvil off to the south west. I shouted down to my friends "Looks like we might get a bit of thunder soon!" and climbed down.

We went and sat in my friend's garden which has a decent view to the southwest and observed the anvil creeping closer. As it moved across the sun, the sky turned a deep orange underneath, making the cloud look very dark and angry.

We decided to walk down to the town centre to pop in the shop and that's when it came over. It was so dark the street lights came on (my mum can still remember this as she was taking the dog to the kennels I believe). The clouds were an angry, churning green colour and there were tendrils of white scud almost dragging along the rooftops. As I looked up, the clouds began to rotate - sucking up in the middle like water going down a plug hole. It didn't look real and I remember thinking it looked like dodgy CGI. The wind came from behind me and was blowing in towards the storm and it felt strangely warm. Suddenly, there was a flash of lightning and the absolute heavens opened up. We sheltered in a doorway and it wasn't long before the street turned into a little river as it absolutely hammered down and the darkness was punctuated by beautiful pink lightning.

Never seen anything quite like it since.

 

EDIT: Yes you are probably right - the saturday. Would explain why I wasn't at school.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Azazel

[sunnijim]

32 minutes ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

From Met Office forecast I saw that's where the storms are forming from and moving into Wiltshire and Hampshire, Moving NNE  

Yes,the met office seem to think the most likely impacts are central parts of Southern England,which suggests  IOW and points 50 miles west and east of the IOW and 100 or so miles Northward.

The likes of Devon,Cornwall, Sussex,Kent and possibly London too far West or East for the worst of it.

Edited May 18, 2022 by sunnijim

[jake44]

guys has ramsgate got a good chance for thunderstorms tonight?

[Sunny76]

A widespread thunderstorm event has been lacking since about 2017 or 18.

2022 will certainly bring the goods. 

 

[Sprites]

3 minutes ago, jake44 said:

guys has ramsgate got a good chance for thunderstorms tonight?

Probably the best chance for lightning.