Summer 2022 Chat

[al78]

A disappointing day today which earlier in the week was forecast to be sunny but instead it clouded over during the afternoon and is now raining. Sunday now not the washout that was forecast yesterday but again, little sun forecast. Is this the ongoing punishment for a hot dry sunny summer in 2018 and a warm dry sunny spring in 2020?

[Don]

9 minutes ago, al78 said:

A disappointing day today which earlier in the week was forecast to be sunny but instead it clouded over during the afternoon and is now raining. Sunday now not the washout that was forecast yesterday but again, little sun forecast. Is this the ongoing punishment for a hot dry sunny summer in 2018 and a warm dry sunny spring in 2020?

Sunday looks to be a washout in my location now!

[weatherguru14]

jet steam back to its normal position for the summer! diving south  

[Frost HoIIow]

On 02/06/2022 at 08:40, Scorcher said:

Really surprised by how low the temperatures look for this part of the world this weekend, it what is a fairly warm air mass. Usually we do well in an easterly flow here as well. I'm sure there are reasons for this that aren't immediately obvious but rather surprising if it only reaches 17C here on Saturday in sunshine.

I'd expect us to do better than that in a cool westerly at this time of year!

Probably due to the fact it's going to be windy and in the shade where temps are recorded it'll probably feel like 17C that's forecasted. In shelter and in the sun it will feel much warmer.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Probably due to the fact it's going to be windy and in the shade where temps are recorded it'll probably feel like 17C that's forecasted. In shelter and in the sun it will feel much warmer.

How the temperature feels is irrelevant when measuring air temperature- they got it badly wrong today.

20.5C was recorded at Rostherne which I think any amateur forecaster would know was possible with sunshine, and easterly wind (good direction for NW England) and 850 hPa temps around 6C.

Yet even at 1pm the Met Office site had 17C as a max temp. Beggars belief that they didn't adjust it.

It certainly felt warm this afternoon and definitely warmer than that 17C that was forecast.

Edited June 3, 2022 by Scorcher

[Frost HoIIow]

54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

How the temperature feels is irrelevant when measuring air temperature- they got it badly wrong today.

20.5C was recorded at Rostherne which I think any amateur forecaster would know was possible with sunshine, and easterly wind (good direction for NW England) and 850 hPa temps around 6C.

Yet even at 1pm the Met Office site had 17C as a max temp. Beggars belief that they didn't adjust it.

It certainly felt warm this afternoon and definitely warmer than that 17C that was forecast.

Yesterday (Thursday) my app said it was going to be 19C today which was bang on round here at my weather station so hardly vastly different, it was the same at Manchester airport so not really worth getting all peeved off being a degree out is it at Rostherne which is further away? Actually I don't find the met office site all that great to begin with when it comes to forecasted temperatures, there's better apps out there. But your comment was actually about this weekend's weather which is tomorrow. We'll see how it goes but it's a bit blowy out there had to shut the window as the blinds were getting battered. It's definitely going to take the edge off the temps. It certainly won't help it.

[East Lancs Rain]

19 hours ago, Scorcher said:

How the temperature feels is irrelevant when measuring air temperature- they got it badly wrong today.

20.5C was recorded at Rostherne which I think any amateur forecaster would know was possible with sunshine, and easterly wind (good direction for NW England) and 850 hPa temps around 6C.

Yet even at 1pm the Met Office site had 17C as a max temp. Beggars belief that they didn't adjust it.

It certainly felt warm this afternoon and definitely warmer than that 17C that was forecast.

Currently 14°C and feeling quite cool in the easterly breeze despite plenty of sunshine this afternoon. Yesterday reached about 18°C here, with some sunshine. Thursday was the warmest day of the week here (about 19°C) despite being very cloudy.

 

I am higher up and closer to the Pennines than you, so I am more exposed to the easterly wind. 
 

Eastern areas are doing quite poorly at the moment. All change into next week though, as we go into an unsettled westerly.
 

Sunday and Monday look like total write offs, light rain all day and only 12/13°C. 

[Scorcher]

15 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Currently 14°C and feeling quite cool in the easterly breeze despite plenty of sunshine this afternoon. Yesterday reached about 18°C here, with some sunshine. Thursday was the warmest day of the week here (about 19°C) despite being very cloudy.

 

I am higher up and closer to the Pennines than you, so I am more exposed to the easterly wind. 
 

Eastern areas are doing quite poorly at the moment. All change into next week though, as we go into an unsettled westerly.
 

Sunday and Monday look like total write offs, light rain all day and only 12/13°C. 

Yes to be fair the temperature forecasts were closer to the mark today than yesterday- it has felt pretty chilly this afternoon.

[clark3r]

So far this spring now early summer the weather seems even more changeable than normal, it also feels like it is taking time to warm up, think I am just desperate for the first plume, do think something is brewing for last middle to end of June

[reef]

Just 11.1C here at almost midday. Very similar to the 2012 jubilee actually, just less wet!

[summer blizzard]

9 hours ago, clark3r said:

So far this spring now early summer the weather seems even more changeable than normal, it also feels like it is taking time to warm up, think I am just desperate for the first plume, do think something is brewing for last middle to end of June

Think we've hit 20C in Leeds but not 25C. A little late but not exceptional just yet. And yes, it's been a mobile pattern largely.

[northwestsnow]

The EC seasonal for July August Sept looks absolutely hideous.

 

[Don]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC seasonal for July August Sept looks absolutely hideous.

 

Perhaps July and August will be decent and September cool and unsettled? 

[StretfordEnd1996]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Perhaps July and August will be decent and September cool and unsettled? 

I'm not sure if I'm correct on this but I seem to recall a good few pleasant and sunny Septembers in recent decades.

Perhaps again this year it won't let us down should the Summer turn out to be one to forget!

[Don]

5 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I'm not sure if I'm correct on this but I seem to recall a good few pleasant and sunny Septembers in recent decades.

Perhaps again this year it won't let us down should the Summer turn out to be one to forget!

Last September was indeed very warm and a number have been very warm in recent decades with the warmest on record back in 2006.  However, I would rather have a decent July and August, followed by a cool and unsettled September, rather than the other way round!

[MP-R]

I'd rather a decent July and August, a warm mellow first half of autumn then stormy and progressively colder autumn after the clocks change. Oh to have seasons!

[Frost HoIIow]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC seasonal for July August Sept looks absolutely hideous.

 

It doesn't look good does it? these seasonal models have been pretty accurate lately too especially last winter with that persistent signal of HP just to our south. I'm no heatwave fan, each to their own though, but some sunny warm days in the low 20s wouldn't go a miss, great for walks or picnics with the family etc as I'm not keen on day upon day of this like we've had today. My joints kind of ache. I don't want to be wearing a jacket year round either, this isn't Shetland.

[damianslaw]

Summer northern hemisphere base state tends to bed in around the solstice, akin to winter, when we typically see a clearer picture how things may pan out for the core of the season around the winter solstice. With this in mind, I often let the first 2 weeks of June go before gaining a sense of how the main part of the summer might pan out. The strength and position of the jetstream and azores high are the main features to look out for. Rather ominous sign that the jet is set to awaken through the coming week, and be positioned slightly further south than normal.. but this may just be a blip, or it could the theme of the summer as a whole.. I'll be looking to see if we see such developments combine with any northern blocking.. let's see where we are in 2 weeks time.

Edited June 5, 2022 by damianslaw

[al78]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC seasonal for July August Sept looks absolutely hideous.

 

It is fortunate then that seasonal forecasts for UK seasons have at best, very modest skill.

[al78]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Last September was indeed very warm and a number have been very warm in recent decades with the warmest on record back in 2006.  However, I would rather have a decent July and August, followed by a cool and unsettled September, rather than the other way round!

I agree, the problem with having summer in September is that the light evenings are rapidly shrinking, and it is near the end of the growing season so much less opportunity for the crops on my allotment to take advantage of it.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Last September was indeed very warm and a number have been very warm in recent decades with the warmest on record back in 2006.  However, I would rather have a decent July and August, followed by a cool and unsettled September, rather than the other way round!

Just shows that we do indeed have plenty of good weather in this country. The problem is that the weather and seasons are often out of sync. Particularly nowadays.

I'd much rather have 20+ Celsius temps in August and the first half of September, than from the autumnal equinox onwards. 

Likewise with winter and spring, I'd much rather have wintry conditions in winter.

 

 

[Daniel*]

Dire today had better winter days. So gloomy… and really quite unusually cool for June.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Summer northern hemisphere base state tends to bed in around the solstice, akin to winter, when we typically see a clearer picture how things may pan out for the core of the season around the winter solstice. With this in mind, I often let the first 2 weeks of June go before gaining a sense of how the main part of the summer might pan out. The strength and position of the jetstream and azores high are the main features to look out for. Rather ominous sign that the jet is set to awaken through the coming week, and be positioned slightly further south than normal.. but this may just be a blip, or it could the theme of the summer as a whole.. I'll be looking to see if we see such developments combine with any northern blocking.. let's see where we are in 2 weeks time.

Hoping for a 2019 / 2013 / 2005 scenario in that respect. 2004 is probably most classic downward slide after the solstice.

[weatherguru14]

Looking pretty decent next week. No heatwave just high teens in my location  to low twenties in the south/east. if you look at the met office.. I'd settle for that.. Don't care much for 11/12c with heavy rain.. after that who knows what'll happen

[Dangerous55019]

At the risk of being torn limb from limb and then battered to death with the soggy ends, I have to say that as a summer S.A.D. sufferer, I found it very pleasant to wake up this morning to grey skies and drizzle, and then the sight of the mist and hill fog starting to roll in as I took the dog for a walk at 05:00 this morning cheered up my cold, dark, miserable heart up no end. 

... And before anyone starts at me, I haven't posted this to troll anyone, just merely stating a personal opinion.