Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Roger J Smith]

Don't sweat the details, each model run is continuing a general theme here and when that happens sometimes you get into cycles of upgrades and downgrades. Maybe this is the "coolest" solution we will see before a series of slightly warmer runs. Another point to keep in mind, even if very accurate, grid forecasts will not capture random variability station to station. Some places have a hotter tendency than others. If a region is to average 37 C as a maximum, it would be surprising if every location had 37 C, the range is likely to be 35-39 C. That's why the 41-42 C grid solutions looked astounding because there again, it implied some location could hit 43. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Control brings the little low in as early as Sunday night, could escape a baking hot Monday if that turns out to be the case

[Battleground Snow]

Still a big spread, this won't be resolved until we get it into the 96-120 hour timeframe. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I’m very bewildered at the lack of CAPE on any of the runs. Is it because of low humidity? Or the air simply being too dry for any convection? Last time we saw the temperature record shattered, we saw CAPE exploding past 3000j/kg and then a MCS move up East Anglia. 35-38c and no more than a few hundred J/Kg modelled at all?? Something isn’t right, or there has to be a glitch of some kind. Even over France there is very little to be seen! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’m very bewildered at the lack of CAPE on any of the runs. Is it because of low humidity? Or the air simply being too dry for any convection? Last time we saw the temperature record shattered, we saw CAPE exploding past 3000j/kg and then a MCS move up East Anglia. 35-38c and no more than a few hundred J/Kg modelled at all?? Something isn’t right, or there has to be a glitch of some kind. Even over France there is very little to be seen! 

I've been noticing for a while that patterns that should be delivering a deluge just aren't these days. It seems to go hand in hand with a decrease in frequency of storm activity.

It's baffling.

[clark3r]

Don’t know if the gfs is having a wobble      But Sunday now shows 33 and Monday 36 getting cooler with each run, 36 is still very hot of course but will need to see what other models are showing but the trend is not as good but could be upgrades of course in the next few runs 

[Summerstorm]

19 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Don’t know if the gfs is having a wobble      But Sunday now shows 33 and Monday 36 getting cooler with each run, 36 is still very hot of course but will need to see what other models are showing but the trend is not as good but could be upgrades of course in the next few runs 

Okay this is going to be a long winded post but I hope it is of some value. 

It might be cooler but as far as I am concerned I have no complaints. I know with increasing extremes we will eventually beat the record these charts just show us what a perfect set up could look like. Plus in 2019 we ended up with multiple plumes something to consider... 

Meanwhile I see mid-high twenties plus from Saturday to Wednesday pretty widespread. Then another HP ridge from the Azores attempting to make inroads at Day 11. 

To me there is two ways we look at it we either get the original synopsis which looked drier with hotter uppers. or we get plan b or somewhere in between the two with lower pressure and hopefully some electrical fun for the storm lovers to enjoy. 

I guess you can take your pick obviously as weather enthusiasts we went to see and experience the extremes! 

Not a personal dig at your post just some of the people called the output 'downgrades' of course as we all know it is very difficult to predict plumes as macro scale adjustments have a big impact. 

Edit : Talk of the devil and here in FI GFS is trying for another plume 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Summerstorm

[mb018538]

Looks like we’ve had our pants pulled down….since the 12z runs yesterday it’s got progressively more delayed, and much less extreme. GFS is still up at 37c by Monday, but all of those 40c plus runs have gone. GEM isn’t even noteworthy now and doesn’t get beyond 33c. 
UKMO is also all wrong. Well and truly trolled!

[clark3r]

12 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Okay this is going to be a long winded post but I hope it is of some value. 

It might be cooler but as far as I am concerned I have no complaints. I know with increasing extremes we will eventually beat the record. Plus in 2019 we ended up with multiple plumes something to consider... 

Meanwhile I see mid-high twenties plus from Saturday to Wednesday pretty widespread. Then another HP ridge from the Azores attempting to make inroads at Day 11. 

To me there is two ways we look at it we either get the original synopsis which looked drier with hotter uppers. or we get plan b or somewhere in between the two with lower pressure and hopefully some electrical fun for the storm lovers to enjoy. 

I guess you can take your pick obviously as weather enthusiasts we went to see and experience the extremes! 

Not a personal dig at your post just some of the people called the output 'downgrades' 

Edit : Talk of the devil and here in FI GFS is trying for another plume 

I have to agree with you, and good news about another potential plume FI 

[Captain Shortwave]

Around a third of the GFS ensembles get the 20c isotherm into the U.K. by Sunday, others by Monday and there are still some seriously hot runs. We do seem to be getting some slower operationals now though with a lower peak of the heat. The UKMO over-amplifies the pattern and as such the ridge gets squeezed and the heat gets sheered away, not sure that will verify with a Scandi trough that close to the UK.

 

GEM still sloth like with the heat.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like we’ve had our pants pulled down….since the 12z runs yesterday it’s got progressively more delayed, and much less extreme. GFS is still up at 37c by Monday, but all of those 40c plus runs have gone. GEM isn’t even noteworthy now and doesn’t get beyond 33c. 
UKMO is also all wrong. Well and truly trolled!

Too early to throw in the towel just yet. Yes, those 40C charts are largely absent on the operationals, but we're still not in the 96-120hr window just yet and we'll continue to see changes.

It does now have a whiff of settling on a theme though, which is for a Monday peak and 850s not quite as extreme. I'd say there is a greater chance of the summery weather extending though, even if we lose the headline temperatures.

MOGREPS 18z was still very hot overall, so I await the 00z and indeed the ECM with interest.

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Too early to throw in the towel just yet. Yes, those 40C charts are largely absent on the operationals, but we're still not in the 96-120hr window just yet and we'll continue to see changes.

It does now have a whiff of settling on a theme though, which is for a Monday peak and 850s not quite as extreme. I'd say there is a greater chance of the summery weather extending though, even if we lose the headline temperatures.

MOGREPS 18z was still very hot overall, so I await the 00z and indeed the ECM with interest.

Definitely not done and dusted yet - it’s still 6 days away after all - but the longer time now showing to get the heat in just means it’s gone quicker. Yesterday all of the runs had it building through Saturday and there (20c line) for the start of Sunday. None show that now….GFS and GEM only have the 15c line starting to hit the SW by 00z Sunday. Quite a big shift, and probably one that’ll stick as you’d expect accuracy to improve the closer we get.

Edited July 11, 2022 by mb018538

[MattStoke]

18z MOGREPS ens.

[SLEETY]

47 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like we’ve had our pants pulled down….since the 12z runs yesterday it’s got progressively more delayed, and much less extreme. GFS is still up at 37c by Monday, but all of those 40c plus runs have gone. GEM isn’t even noteworthy now and doesn’t get beyond 33c. 
UKMO is also all wrong. Well and truly trolled!

Its been said about a million times before,but until extreme charts either hot or cold get into the reliable timeframe 4 days at worse,then never think they are going to verify,then you wont end up being upset when they dont happen! .The 40c plus charts were at least 10 days ahead when they first appeared,so always likely to change.

Even now its still miles away before anything can be certain regarding next weekend and beyond.

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

18z MOGREPS ens.

That looks fairly in line with what it was showing yesterday - the largest cluster peaking Sunday with uppers well into the 20Cs.

It may sound like a scratched record but until we can get the plume within T120 then we can't get too confident of the details, and even then a cut-off low can behave unexpectedly up until T72. The more extreme the scenario, the more extreme the inter-run variation can be.

Wasn't it only 48 hours ago that the GFS was predicting 35C this Wednesday? 

Having said all that, I can't get out of my mind that on yesterday's ECM ensembles, 47 out of 51 runs produced a raw 33C or more somewhere in the country next Sunday/Monday (likely actual of 35C or more). We have seen ensemble sets turn around despite strong support before, yes, but it's rare on this scale. Support for record breaking temps was 50/50, though, so no cause for overconfidence on that front yet, regardless of what any runs today may say.

[Guest]

While some of the silly warmth has been removed GFS was a good run this morning and extended 30C days beyond the following weekend and never really cooled off the in the south. 
 

Also the GEM ensembles are pretty amazing this morning, will just leave these here 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

While some of the silly warmth has been removed GFS was a good run this morning and extended 30C days beyond the following weekend and never really cooled off the in the south. 
 

Also the GEM ensembles are pretty amazing this morning, will just leave these here 

Which delivers a T2max mean of 33c on Monday 

those looking for those temps approaching 40c perhaps need to look at the recent trend towards the cut off low being further west later this week which drives the initial plume further west. 

would need to see a fair pendulum swing to take us back to that 40c territory now 

[Captain Shortwave]

Pretty consistent from the ECM compared to yesterday’s 12z.

 

 

Saturday probably getting close to 30c, mid thirties possible on Sunday. Turning cooler on Monday as Atlantic winds return around that developing surface high.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Singularity]

Makes a change to see an overall trend toward a less progressive heat plume arrival - so often we’ve seen it go the other way instead, like with the June event.

Of course that means we can’t reasonably rule out a trend reversal before we get to the weekend.

UKM is certainly a head scratcher this morning with a small low nipping across the northern half of the UK on Friday, a feature absent from all other deterministic runs. Probably off one one… probably.

[markw2680]

People saying downgrade etc etc should be ashamed! How is low 30s a downgrade, as I stated yesterday always looking at stuff a week away rarely happens, enjoy the very summery weather. I mean who wants 40c anyway? Can’t work or walk in that. Downgrade it certainly isn’t 

[Lukesluckybunch]

9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Pretty consistent from the ECM compared to yesterday’s 12z.

 

 

Saturday probably getting close to 30c, mid thirties possible on Sunday. Turning cooler on Monday as Atlantic winds return around that developing surface high.

Cooler where??infact it shows the high moving in once more

[mb018538]

Still a hot day on Sunday on the ECM - though we're talking more like 33-35c rather than 37/38c.

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Cooler where??infact it shows the high moving in once more

Lower level winds are coming around the high building in, so these will push the heat southwards, still feeling warm though. 
Okay I wasn’t going to call this early, but that ridge did look likely to break off and offer a second chance of pushing the heat northwards again.

 
 

This is a decent run, better than the last as we don’t develop that north easterly due to the Azores high being a little more progressive and further south when it pushes in.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

ECM having another go on Tuesday instead. Literally everything hinges on how that low interacts, and none of the models appear to have this tied down at all.

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Lower level winds are coming around the high building in, so these will push the heat southwards, still feeling warm though. 
Okay I wasn’t going to call this early, but that ridge did look likely to break off and offer a second chance of pushing the heat northwards again.

 
 

This is a decent run, better than the last as we don’t develop that north easterly due to the Azores high being a little more progressive and further south when it pushes in.

Oh I see what your saying,looking at that chart,we would still see mid 20's?