Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Paul]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Also “worth noting “- some of them members are showing signs- of uptick latter on. Another plume likely???.. I’d say!!!

Looking further south, there's a slight uptick but nothing 'plumey' at this point. 

Head a bit further south still, into Paris and maybe some more hints. 

[bluearmy]

Mogreps 

monday 35+ is notable increase to 9 runs 

tuesday is a full house 17 runs of which 13 are 37+ 

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

Looking further south, there's a slight uptick but nothing 'plumey' at this point. 

Head a bit further south still, into Paris and maybe some more hints. 

Not really a surprise when looking at these charts - spare a thought for southern Spain, where 850 temps look to be holding above 25c right out through the next 10 days at least. A brutally long heatwave here, even by their standards.

[sheikhy]

So ecm goes from slowest to quickest to clearing heat!!think it might swing back this evening!!

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

So ecm goes from slowest to quickest to clearing heat!!think it might swing back this evening!!

But even that isn't quick enough to prevent 40C on Tuesday.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Mark Smithy said:

GFS ensembles are pretty rock solid with this life-threatening heat, with the operational once again by no means out on a limb:

 

Even once we return to 'normal' there are some T850s approaching 15C. In years past, we'd be getting excited by such warnth!

[kold weather]

Whilst record maxes are a touch undertain, record mins look more likely to fall. Every single model breaks the record low, some fairly considerably. 

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Whilst record maxes are a touch undertain, record mins look more likely to fall. Every single model breaks the record low, some fairly considerably. 

UKV has a minimum of 28'C in London. 28'C is the daily time maximum heatwave threshold....

Edited July 15, 2022 by MattStoke

[Nick F]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Whilst record maxes are a touch undertain, record mins look more likely to fall. Every single model breaks the record low, some fairly considerably. 

23.9C set in Brighton on 3rd August 1990 the record to beat, the more conservative EC (over recent days) going for 26C at 03z Tuesday morning in west Wales and Devon on its 00z run.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

ECM still not as keen on 40c as some of the other models are

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM still not as keen on 40c as some of the other models are

It's always at least 2 or 3 degrees too low.

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM still not as keen on 40c as some of the other models are

It's absolutely tried and tested, it's always 2-3C too low in clear settled conditions in the summer. Been like this in every heatwave for years, including when the last record was broken in 2019. It's more accurate in cloudy conditions. 38C on this model is as good as 40C on the others.

[kmanmx]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It's always at least 2 or 3 degrees too low.

Are you sure ? ECM predicted 18/19c for my area at 9am today, and Met Office observations are reporting it's only 17c at 10am. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by kmanmx

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, kmanmx said:

Are you sure ? ECM predicted 18/19c for my area at 9am today, and Met Office observations are reporting it's only 17c at 10am. 

It's only in hot spells generally that this is the case. In cooler, westerly based flows the models don't underestimate as much.

You can't compare today with Monday or Tuesday given the huge contrast in air masses.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Are you sure ? ECM predicted 18/19c for my area at 9am today, and Met Office observations are reporting it's only 17c at 10am. 

Wait for the pm maxes 

[mushymanrob]

Well i dont think this chart support any further heat, not even a transient plume?... With pressure rising in the mid Atlantic if anything the general theme is looking average or slightly below temperature wise.

[JayAlmeida]

All of the 00z runs seem to have dropped the idea of a smaller plume event from next weekend onwards. Things are looking pretty slack and uninspiring for the final part of July.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well i dont think this chart support any further heat, not even a transient plume?... With pressure rising in the mid Atlantic if anything the general theme is looking average or slightly below temperature wise.

Certainly looks that way, the La Nina holding sway.

Bad news for the North West with only 4 days of Summer so far.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well i dont think this chart support any further heat, not even a transient plume?... With pressure rising in the mid Atlantic if anything the general theme is looking average or slightly below temperature wise.

Still reasonably dry looking as well. There ate a few signs that at least some rain will start making it to the SE but we really could do with some decent frontal rains during August since summer 22 in the SE must be running near or even below 50% so far.

[Paul]

The number of off topic posts being made is getting a bit heavy, and it's unfair on both the team + those who want to use this thread to discuss the models. 

Obviously there is a lot to discuss right now, and we don't want to restrict anyone from getting involved, but we all benefit from the smooth running of the community and in turn we all need to take responsibility for it. 

So, please take a moment to consider what you're posting, and if it's not model-related please head to one of the other more relevant threads. A good place to start is the summer thread, which is already very active:

The alternative will be that those who are consistently disrupting the thread with off-topic posts will find themselves blocked from posting in here for a period of time. Please don't let that person be you.

[tight isobar]

GFS-Go with the 6z this morning for near the mark Max’s.. it’ll be about on the money @sunday-/ Tuesday!!

Edited July 15, 2022 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Certainly looks that way, the La Nina holding sway.

Bad news for the North West with only 4 days of Summer so far.

The obvious fly-in-the-ointment (at least as I see it) being any future build-up of excessive heat over NW Africa and Spain/Portugal? Something, given the way the last four years have panned out, I wouldn't dismiss?

Edited July 15, 2022 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well i dont think this chart support any further heat, not even a transient plume?... With pressure rising in the mid Atlantic if anything the general theme is looking average or slightly below temperature wise.

Looks that way on the day 10-15 ECM cluster this morning too - and was always the likely outcome once this broke down.

What I'm more interested in is all of the longer range models producing warm/hot temperature forecasts for W/NW Europe in August:



Nor particularly what I'd expect, though the latest MetO update goes for high pressure in the south into the start of August, with the potential for heat again. 

[DR(S)NO]

What happened to the expected very active hurricane season. Is this likely to affect our August weather perhaps? 

[Battleground Snow]

Icon pushing the plume thru much faster on Tuesday... Quite a big change from its 00z run