Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Rain All Night]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Wow, thats some temperature gradient... 15c ! Winter for North Scotland, Indian Summer conditions for the Southeast!

Would I be right to assume that this would not create an 'enjoyable' warm spell because it also be a very wet one?

[MP-R]

9 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Would I be right to assume that this would not create an 'enjoyable' warm spell because it also be a very wet one?

Somewhere across the north there would be a lot of rain with a temp gradient like that but further southeast could be very pleasant and drier, especially given any brightness.

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Somewhere across the north there would be a lot of rain with a temp gradient like that but further southeast could be very pleasant and drier, especially given any brightness.

Interesting, thank you. I won't get too excited as it seems there is plenty of scope for the SW low to be in the wrong position for that, or indeed nowhere to be seen at all at the surface:

[Eagle Eye]

10 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Would I be right to assume that this would not create an 'enjoyable' warm spell because it also be a very wet one?

It would be mostly fine for the south because of low vorticity and the WAA(Warm Air Advection) is low as well so the atmosphere wouldn't be able to harness the moisture in the atmosphere all that well.

Although, the night before there is some WAA and so despite low vorticity the atmosphere may be able to harness some of the moisture.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

It would be mostly fine for the south because of low vorticity and the WAA(Warm Air Advection) is low as well so the atmosphere wouldn't be able to harness the moisture in the atmosphere all that well.

Although, the night before there is some WAA and so despite low vorticity the atmosphere may be able to harness some of the moisture.

And, as both myself and others have repeatedly pointed out, temps in mid-October 1978 were close to 25C: IMO, weather in September (1973), October (1974), November (1988) has little if any effect on the following winter?

Edited October 12, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, as both myself and others have repeatedly pointed out, temps in mid-October 1978 were close to 25C: IMO, weather in September (1973), October (1974), November (1988) has little if any effect on the following winter?

You could make the argument that it does but it's indirectly and is a very low correlation. Essentially, anything can still happen this Winter because we've still got months left and patterns change quickly usually in a La Nina year.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

You could make the argument that it does but it's indirectly and is a very low correlation. Essentially, anything can still happen this Winter because we've still got months left and patterns change quickly usually in a La Nina year.

Agreed, EE; it must in some way: we just don't know what that way is yet?

PS: I'm talking globally here, of course. How does autumn's weather-pattern affect winter -- on our postage-stamp-sized wee island? I've absolutely no idea!

Edited October 12, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

The near term conditions provide a simpler picture of how the weather patterns are interconnected (I know for the members that are newer to watching the models it's not always easy to see that aspect) 

I've marked the ridges and troughs

  

Same on the 500hpa view which shows them a bit clearer 

Good enough agreement to that point of the output.

The next stage sees a separation of the energy within the troughing around the UK which allows a low to become cut off to the south west,

 

this isn't really a standard pattern and in combination with the blocking around Greenland which is another pattern models always have difficulties figuring out (If anyone wants my opinion on best models for Greenland blocking handling for future outputs here's how I rank them)

GFS

Ukmo

Ecm

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Nature does not hold any clues as to whats to come

Probably a discussion for another thread and I'm not sure if you are including wildlife in that statement but seeing as they are connected... Before / during the recent big earthquake in Taiwan the baitfish were jumping out of the water and think of animal behaviour especially dogs and cats when there are thunderstorms.

Can Animals Predict the Weather?

WWW.STORMGEO.COM

---

Animals may be able to react to changes in weather faster than humans, but we should not count on their behavior to determine how much snow will fall next week or how severe a hurricane will be.

 

[Rain All Night]

Just for fun I've had a look through charts for the same day in previous years to see if there's been anything similar in my lifetime to what's being forecast for next week, and 2001 stands out as being quite remarkably similar, and according to Google this was the third of three consecutive La Niña years, just like this year. In recent years, 2020 (also La Niña) looks the most similar, although it lacks the joined-up heights to the north.

Edited October 12, 2022 by RainAllNight

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

Well this looks fun - both GFS and ECM suggesting a northerly vs southerly battle in 10 days time.

10 days time...of course.

Though with the jetstream forecast to be rather meridonal next week, one suspects both colder than normal and warmer than normal conditions are more likely than they otherwise would be.

Big temp contrasts north to south.

[Eagle Eye]

29 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Just for fun I've had a look through charts for the same day in previous years to see if there's been anything similar in my lifetime to what's being forecast for next week, and 2001 stands out as being quite remarkably similar, and according to Google this was the third of three consecutive La Niña years, just like this year. In recent years, 2020 (also La Niña) looks the most similar, although it lacks the joined-up heights to the north.

2001 was in fact a triple dip La Nina however it didn't carry on over the Winter, it went into Neutral from the summer onwards.

Arguably, the year could be unlike others and there's so much difference in the seasonals anything could happen.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Probably a discussion for another thread and I'm not sure if you are including wildlife in that statement but seeing as they are connected... Before / during the recent big earthquake in Taiwan the baitfish were jumping out of the water and think of animal behaviour especially dogs and cats when there are thunderstorms.

Can Animals Predict the Weather?

WWW.STORMGEO.COM

---

Animals may be able to react to changes in weather faster than humans, but we should not count on their behavior to determine how much snow will fall next week or how severe a hurricane will be.

 

They were reacting to current conditions, not predicting it months ahead..

[Methuselah]

Ah ha! This week's Ten-Day Trend suggests a battleground later next week. A battleground that, were we in February, rather than October, would be interesting!

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Big temp contrasts north to south.

I hope this is not of a sign of typical weather patterns come winter, otherwise it's going to be rather frustrating for many?!!

[Downburst]

31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ah ha! This week's Ten-Day Trend suggests a battleground later next week. A battleground that, were we in February, rather than October, would be interesting!

 

Love these posts my the Met Office. But the thing is, when they say, it's a battle between, low coming in from the southwest and High pressure and questions which will win out. I always say to myself I can tell you that, the Low will win out. 

Current ECM shows the high squeezed out to the north west and the lows phasing by next Friday

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some not so subtle hints from the modelling (incl seasonals) that we're heading towards a cold November.

[Northern Sky]

51 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some not so subtle hints from the modelling (incl seasonals) that we're heading towards a cold November.

I'd be very happy with a cool/cold November and December, I love cold weather from late Autumn. After New Year I'm ready for Spring. 

The seasonal models are quite interesting - more so in that the lead time is less for those interesting bits. I'm very wary at the best of times with seasonal modelling but an October update for cold in Feb isn't exactly the most exciting or believable of prospects. 

[Rain All Night]

4 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

I'd be very happy with a cool/cold November and December, I love cold weather from late Autumn. After New Year I'm ready for Spring. 

The seasonal models are quite interesting - more so in that the lead time is less for those interesting bits. I'm very wary at the best of times with seasonal modelling but an October update for cold in Feb isn't exactly the most exciting or believable of prospects. 

Noob question, where would I find the seasonal models you both are referring to?

[Downburst]

23 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Noob question, where would I find the seasonal models you both are referring to?

This is a good site, major models and blended too 

Charts | Copernicus

CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU

 

[ChannelThunder]

Next week looks interesting on the ECM in particular. Low pressure parked in one of my favourite places to have it - to the SW of the country. Looks to be a mild week with some heavy, possibly thundery outbreaks being pushed up all the way from the Azores, pretty much. The model then shows strong hints of a classic northerly plunge as the trough pulls away to the east, which would please many here. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by ResonantChannelThunder

[Rain All Night]

17 minutes ago, Downburst said:

This is a good site, major models and blended too 

Charts | Copernicus

CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU

 

Thank you very much. I see high pressure anomalies over half the planet, including around us and particularly to our west. I also see positive temperature anomalies here when I was expecting to see the opposite (in the nearest timescale at least) based on other posts here, am I misunderstanding?

[damianslaw]

A meridional pattern being forecast for next week, is this tied in with MJO affect.. buckling of the jet and a more amplified flow.. models showing charts reminscent of summer, with slow moving cut off low to our SW, heights to our east, se and nw.. an exchange of warmer continental air with cold polar air in space of 2 days, very plausible and interesting. 

[Allseasons-Si]

22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A meridional pattern being forecast for next week, is this tied in with MJO affect.. buckling of the jet and a more amplified flow.. models showing charts reminscent of summer, with slow moving cut off low to our SW, heights to our east, se and nw.. an exchange of warmer continental air with cold polar air in space of 2 days, very plausible and interesting. 

Could be as both the gfs and gefs are forcast to go into a higher amplified phase 6 together with the ECM ensemble regime projections upto 192 hrs and as you can see that the ECM ens are going for a -nao with slight blocking on some of the ens,too early to say where this is going with how amplified this pattern will be

both the AO and NAO are predicted to slow down into neutral to neg values,the NAO moreso on the neg side of the prediction

all interesting stuff and with the Atlantic in slumber for what seems to be like an eternity,...who knows what is around the corner as we head into winter.

[KTtom]

Always find it frustrating when people keep using the old cliches like 'Atlantic in a slumber' when we have a 982 mbar low in the middle of it. For westerners the Atlantic is well awake and has been since the start of September...looking foreward to the block forming next week to the north, in combination with the azores high should feel very pleasant with winds from a southerly quadrant.

Edited October 13, 2022 by KTtom

[mb018538]

NOAA anoms and todays 00z output looking like they have pretty good agreement now - cut off low pressure out to the SW, which will stay mainly out of the way and allow for some southerly winds to feed up through the middle and latter half of next week.

Temperatures dependent on cloud amounts and how warm the airmass ends up being - GFS 00z has 20/21c next Friday for example, which is very mild for the latter part of October. 850 mean is around 10c for a couple of days, which is way above average. No sign of any cold weather for the next 10 days at least.