Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, BenFreeman_91 said:

I love your posts! As a complete novice, why are you so intrigued by this chart?

I’ll say after completing .. then we’ll await the last suite in the 12 z raw open modelling @12z ecm which I’ll likely be comparing a catch up of Synoptics to the gfs.. which-in itself.. is just beginning to catch up with likely evolving prognosis

Edited July 17, 2022 by tight isobar

[Captain Shortwave]

I think the GFS may be overdoing the temperatures on Wednesday, that said the UKMO, Arpege and ICON still have temperatures in the mid to high twenties and 30c can’t be ruled out. The heat will get pushed away, it is just that the method will be slower and will take until the end of Wednesday to fully happen.

That said if the 20c isotherm is over the east during the morning, it isn’t impossible that temperatures could soar into the 30s before the cooler air fully arrives.

[Mark Smithy]

32.2C at Hawarden. 

The GFS has had today's maxima spot on. If anything 1C low.

ECM is really low.

So tomorrow? 39C? Maybe? As for Tuesday well ... you've all seen and commented and as Tamara says, it's utterly insane. We should all heed her remarks.

[Phil Blake]

57 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm is wrong and its such a shame for a model of that calibre to not just be wrong but be STUBBORNLY wrong at a extremely short time frame!!

Can't say it's wrong until the event has passed for all we know ecm could be correct and all other models wrong. Mother nature will do whatever she pleases. 

[MattStoke]

That GFS chart for just 48 hours times is hard to comprehend. The majority of England and parts of Wales breaking the U.K. all time record by several degrees, and the UKV and Aperge look similar.

[Derecho]

19 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Can't say it's wrong until the event has passed for all we know ecm could be correct and all other models wrong. Mother nature will do whatever she pleases. 

Yup the GFS is a bit slower clearing the heat away compared to other models overnight.

[Mike Poole]

HARMONIE 12z T28 has Monday pretty much as per the earlier run:

T48 is Tuesday 1pm:

…with power to add - should see on the 18z run later.

My view after the 12z runs so far is Monday will record somewhere over 39C, and Tuesday over 40C and then some, possibly quite substantially over.  

Just looking at the cluster of 39s on Tuesday’s chart, there could be a contribution from the foehn effect going on here, in the lee of the Peak District.   

Edited July 17, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Singularity]

Regarding the lack of much rain during the breakdown, perhaps the cool air undercuts the hot, dry air meaning instability is all elevated and where moisture is severely lacking?

I’m on holiday without my usual resources so if somebody could check out a few soundings (skew-Ts) that would be much appreciated

[minus10]

The Iberian peninsula, particularly central and south, southern France and much of the med look to stay predominently in heatwave weather for the entirety of the gfs 12z run....which will worsen their drought/ fires situation which is already not good...

Edited July 17, 2022 by minus10

[kold weather]

Looking at the 12z and it really wouldn't take much to reintroduce some hot air back into the SE part of the country next weekend and into the early part of the following week. It wouldn't be as hot as this week but Europe is so hot that even a glancing blow should be enough to get us into the low 30s again.

Also solid agreement now on temperatures from the high resolution models (and GFS is broadly in line, though maybe 1c higher) of a 38-39c on Monday and 40-41c on Tuesday.

EDIT- ECM a little west of the 00z run, not a drastic difference though.

Edited July 17, 2022 by kold weather

[MattStoke]

I spy a 43 on the UKV.

Edited July 17, 2022 by MattStoke

[bluearmy]

Ec 12z is a tad slower and finds 37 for Cambridge on Monday and 39 for Cambridge and just north of Doncaster  on Tuesday 

Edited July 17, 2022 by bluearmy

[minus10]

Interestingly the bbc weekly now showing some rain/thundery activity for Friday as a possibility..

This is around the time or just before the uptick in precip ens on gfs 12z..

One can only hope and do a raindance perhaps...

[seabreeze86]

Just now, MattStoke said:

I spy a 43 on the UKV.

40c in Redcar that is completely insane , almost as insane as us still not having a red warning in place 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM still further east that the others, but it is a little further west than yesterday. If anything the depth of the plume seems a little stronger, which probably helps too.

   

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

40c in Redcar that is completely insane , almost as insane as us still not having a red warning in place 

I suspect the red zone will get expanded northwards and possibly southwards as well.

Whats noteable in todays runs is how the heat has been upped a touch on all models (for example ECM upping it to 39 from 38, etc) AND how much further south nearly all the models are expanding the heat now. A few days ago for my location for example the models were suggesting a 32-34c type day, early peak and then cooler. Now the models all seem to be in good agreement that the heat basically extends the whole way down to the south coast, so even my area is in the 37-39c zone now.

[AWD]

Latest, 15z UKV has some isolated convective activity throughout Tuesday, firstly in the far SW then a bit in Northern England down into parts of Wales and the West Country

onTuesday afternoon;

40c and a shower in the NE on Tuesday?

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Latest, 15z UKV has some isolated convective activity throughout Tuesday, firstly in the far SW then a bit in Northern England down into parts of Wales and the West Country

onTuesday afternoon;

40c and a shower in the NE on Tuesday?

Will save on gas I suppose just shower in the garden 

Seriously though I know I keep banging on about it but workplaces will not take this seriously unless a red warning is issued by the met 

With the amount of hi resolution models going this high this widely the warning area most increase 

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest, 15z UKV has some isolated convective activity throughout Tuesday, firstly in the far SW then a bit in Northern England down into parts of Wales and the West Country

onTuesday afternoon;

40c and a shower in the NE on Tuesday?

That'll turn into another cloudfest then!

[Mark Smithy]

The fact that the Met Office just confirmed that Hawarden reached 33C today means I think that 39C is pretty much certain tomorrow, which is an extraordinary thing to write.

The GFS temps have been spot on.

ECM very low.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

24 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Interestingly the bbc weekly now showing some rain/thundery activity for Friday as a possibility..

This is around the time or just before the uptick in precip ens on gfs 12z..

One can only hope and do a raindance perhaps...

Aye, hope not too much, noticed bbc giving me a wet Friday

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

The fact that the Met Office just confirmed that Hawarden reached 33C today means I think that 39C is pretty much certain tomorrow, which is an extraordinary thing to write.

The GFS temps have been spot on.

ECM very low.

Do we have the west France maxes to check against the forecast?   Certainly gfs maxes were decent over here today and ec a couple degrees too low on the max as is generally the case. 

[mb018538]

I’m not sure we will see 40c tomorrow. I think something between 38-39c perhaps. Tuesday has to be the one, and a question of how high we go  

[Rammie]

9 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Will save on gas I suppose just shower in the garden 

Seriously though I know I keep banging on about it but workplaces will not take this seriously unless a red warning is issued by the met 

With the amount of hi resolution models going this high this widely the warning area most increase 

I'm right in the middle of the current red zone. I'm not aware of any workplaces doing anything different in the next two days. I'm not sure what the models would have to show, for that to happen.

[Captain Shortwave]

The risk of thundery rain getting close to the south on Friday as shown above. 

Conditions recovering quickly over the weekend as high pressure builds in weakly. The day 7 chart is ominous as low pressure stalls to the west. The Sunday chart would be high 20s for the south again and the following frames could push higher still again.

   

 

This is probably the most amplified solution, though the GEM gets close and also allows temperatures to rise to the very warm category again.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Captain Shortwave