Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Polar Maritime]

Ukv also shows showers for central area's on Tuesday and the S/W..

20c here currently and will be sat out in the garden for a good while yet!

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

UKV still shows a high of 39c tomorrow (Anywhere across central England has a shot at topping the readings).

42c on Tuesday (there is even a 43c), widespread low 40s by lunchtime, which is crazy.

 

Arpege 18z has a high of 38c tomorrow

Edit - 40/41c on Tuesday

As for the GFS, synoptically there was no change regarding the next few days, including the much warmer Wednesday due to the hot air hanging on.

I think we are now at nowcasting for tomorrow now, let’s hope for clear skies.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

Latest ukv 18z even more widespread with heat tomorrow and tuesday than the 15z!!gfs 18z identical for tuesday to the 12z!tomorrow slightly cooler for some reason but not by much!!!

[Polar Maritime]

UKV temp Mon/Tue hot hot hot..

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[jamesgold]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

UKV temp Mon/The hot hot hot..

 

43 again… surely not…

[marksp]

wow Watnell weather station Nottingham showing 25C and its 11.25pm

[tight isobar]

Quickly away from the rolling 18z..it’s clear to see precipitation popping up into south/ south west- Although this wasn’t a stamped probability the positives to take from this, is if you’re keen on temperature breaking formats coming to fruition- then you’d want this energy as a introducing circumstance to back loading heat!. Cloud cover will “ of course be an issue tomorrow for maximum gains at eventual head height temperatures, but the modelled vents- are looking sharp for aid evaporations and clearance of both- as the heat trickles inland. I’m not pleased to say this.. but I feel once infer is accomplished... the temperatures could be ridiculously extreme......40+ 100 miles coastal sets inland!! Let’s see !!!!

Edited July 17, 2022 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Ukv also shows showers for central area's on Tuesday and the S/W..

20c here currently and will be sat out in the garden for a good while yet!

 

Yes mate that sounds a great idea and very sensible....its currently 23C here outside,just come back inside into the back bedroom which as the sun on it all afternoon and its 29.5c...Got the fan on full blast just to take the edge off my skin...I actually feel sorry for the ones who have poor health or weight issues with this heat cause it really is intense!

38-42C looks like a good call for Monday and Tuesday...unbroken sunshine and the deal is done...

Later next week looks questionable to me...quite a slack profile with lower Heights perhaps to the SW..Some areas could get quite alot of rain while others predominantly fine and it still looks rather warm especially outside of any rainfall! I'm still thinking a more settled spell again into the following week with an uptick in temps.

Stay cool and stay Hydrated is the key point from me thus evening  

[Man With Beard]

A little peculiarity of the modelling that has been largely missed - we've gone from a dramatic breakdown in Tuesday night straight through the heart of the UK, to a fairly tame upper low tracking the channel. I suspect like me the veterans of the forum saw this coming. The result is a weaker clear out of the heat and another potentially hot day in the SE on Wednesday.

[Paul_1978]

24 minutes ago, marksp said:

wow Watnell weather station Nottingham showing 25C and its 11.25pm

26.0°C on my garden weather station at 23:52

[Tamara]

The showers and mid level convection should not be a surprise. The blazing heat last week here In Portugal, ahead of the same airmass heading north this weekend, was characterised by a lot of mid level cloud (mixed with wildfire smoke) and the amounts of sunshine locally were actually very low for much of the week. The days that the temperature hit the highest 40s values were Tuesday to Thursday.....and were cloudy for large parts of the day. There was even some convective sporadic splashes of rain on Weds amidst a quite thundery looking sky around mid morning. Temps at that time about 37C. The cloud broke for a couple of hours, a blazing hot wind from the SE kicked in and the peak of the heatwave happened early to mid afternoon around 45C

This airmass has changed next to nothing on it way northwards. Cloud and a few showers is very much part of what was the Portuguese experience. Those relatively lower geopotential heights that have sat off the coast locally here and are now heading north east are a driving force in pumping the intense heat advection.

This is one plume where every bit of surprise cloud cover which you are tempted to think leads to suppression of the heat - is actually an evolution to greater heat still afterwards.

Its coming.

Boa noite e boa sorte

[Scott Ingham]

34 minutes ago, Tamara said:

The showers and mid level convection should not be a surprise. The blazing heat last week here In Portugal, ahead of the same airmass heading north this weekend, was characterised by a lot of mid level cloud (mixed with wildfire smoke) and the amounts of sunshine locally were actually very low for much of the week. The days that the temperature hit the highest 40s values were Tuesday to Thursday.....and were cloudy for large parts of the day. There was even some convective sporadic splashes of rain on Weds amidst a quite thundery looking sky around mid morning. Temps at that time about 37C. The cloud broke for a couple of hours, a blazing hot wind from the SE kicked in and the peak of the heatwave happened early to mid afternoon around 45C

This airmass has changed next to nothing on it way northwards. Cloud and a few showers is very much part of what was the Portuguese experience. Those relatively lower geopotential heights that have sat off the coast locally here and are now heading north east are a driving force in pumping the intense heat advection.

This is one plume where every bit of surprise cloud cover which you are tempted to think leads to suppression of the heat - is actually an evolution to greater heat still afterwards.

Its coming.

Boa noite e boa sorte

What were the known impacts Tamara. I.e medical issues, issues with car breakdowns and issues with power outages? Trying to grasp any potential impacts as i now advise a few local distribution companies and the construction sector of our local council. I have researched and shared ideas. Curious to know from someone whos experienced it (even if you were a degree of 4 higher)

I didnt expect to be busy until winter and im much more comfortable in the winter months forecasting!

Edited July 17, 2022 by Scott Ingham

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at the projected temperatures for Tuesday, GFS is consistently throwing up highs of 40-42C for the eastern side of England,  Comparing 850hPa temperatures between GFS and ECMWF, the ECMWF's are generally a couple of degrees lower, so I think the GFS may be overdoing it slightly.

Here are the ECMWF 2m temperatures - although it should be noted that the 2m temperature tends to give the typical afternoon value, and to get the max you can generally add a couple of degrees to those figures:

Thus, in my opinion the most likely outcome is maxima of 38 to 40C across this region on Tuesday, probably with a new national record somewhere between 40 and 41C, although 42C isn't completely out of the question especially if localised Föhn effects come into play with the southerly breeze.

There is still some uncertainty around this, for as we saw on 25 July 2019 convective cloud can bubble up unexpectedly in this kind of setup, but with such high maxima being forecast over such a large region (it's rare to see the extreme maxima push as far north as Yorkshire), the chances are that somewhere will see enough breaks in the cloud to hit 40C.

[tight isobar]

well The motions are now on.. lead vents have started the draw up from france. And the tap into “ likely heat record breaking”- exactions are underway!.. the temperatures will likely take a while for land response... but by AM @ uk time-values the notability will begin to be realised!.. txt book evolving atm.. and a few 40/40+ will very likely be recorded/ recognised...today ... @ historical weather immenent!

Edited July 18, 2022 by tight isobar

[Cheshire Freeze]

ICON 0z- temperatures generally a notch down from what we were seeing a day or so ago for today. 36C looks the maximum for my location for example.

Tuesday, the heat is already clearing from the west by 4pm...looks like somewhere around Lincolnshire will hit 40C

By 6pm it really is only E parts that are still in the furnace

I think it all comes down to the peak uppers moving in overnight rather than during Tuesday itself. Had those 24C uppers come through during middle of Tuesday, we'd have seen 41/42C quite widely IMO.

Edited July 18, 2022 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Arome is even quicker than the ICON at shifting the heat E on Tuesday

[sheikhy]

Here goes!!!heat pump well underway!!!still got the forecast of temps between 38 and 40 here today and tomorrow!!

[Dbarb]

It's now a nowcasting event. I wouldn't take much notice of model changes at this range but keep an eye on real time temps 

[sheikhy]

43 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ICON 0z- temperatures generally a notch down from what we were seeing a day or so ago for today. 36C looks the maximum for my location for example.

Tuesday, the heat is already clearing from the west by 4pm...looks like somewhere around Lincolnshire will hit 40C

By 6pm it really is only E parts that are still in the furnace

I think it all comes down to the peak uppers moving in overnight rather than during Tuesday itself. Had those 24C uppers come through during middle of Tuesday, we'd have seen 41/42C quite widely IMO.

Looks bang in line with temp forecast from last nights 18z ukv so no change for the midlands eastward i think!!had same temp profile for 6pm tomorrow that icon has!!your area still very very hot though!!

[sheikhy]

When looking at sat24 can someone explain to me how there has been a stubborn back build of cloud over the pennines for the last 12 hours but either side of it clear skies?!!thats kinda weird man!!

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS is probably the hottest forecast for today, potentially sneaking in a 39C, most others go for 37/38C. A case of waiting and seeing what happens today I guess but the odds of the record going today seem a little slimmer. The UKV 00z has a 39C across the Welsh border with a wide area hitting 37/38C.

 

Tuesday still looking a good bet to hit 40C or even higher, just west of Humberside still seems to be the potential hot spot. UKV has a 42C, the others have a wide area of 40C (So an isolated 41C probable).

 

Further ahead, the models are still toying with backing the winds more to the south late next weekend and into the following week.

   

Worth watching as multiple models are hinting at this. The UKMO looks uninterested though.

 

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The GFS is probably the hottest forecast for today, potentially sneaking in a 39C, most others go for 37/38C. A case of waiting and seeing what happens today I guess but the odds of the record going today seem a little slimmer. The UKV 00z has a 39C across the Welsh border with a wide area hitting 37/38C.

 

Tuesday still looking a good bet to hit 40C or even higher, just west of Humberside still seems to be the potential hot spot. UKV has a 42C, the others have a wide area of 40C (So an isolated 41C probable).

 

Further ahead, the models are still toying with backing the winds more to the south late next weekend and into the following week.

   

Worth watching as multiple models are hinting at this. The UKMO looks uninterested though.

 

 

I cant believe how we still talkin about temps in the 40s and the event is underway right now!!would have expected the values to downgrade as we got closer but in this event we seem to have gone the other way!!!

[MattStoke]

Think we may scrap 39’C in one or two places today and set a new record but the model output has dropped the temperatures a bit.

Not such the case tomorrow where the model output has increased the temperatures.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

36 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The GFS is probably the hottest forecast for today, potentially sneaking in a 39C, most others go for 37/38C. A case of waiting and seeing what happens today I guess but the odds of the record going today seem a little slimmer. The UKV 00z has a 39C across the Welsh border with a wide area hitting 37/38C.

 

Tuesday still looking a good bet to hit 40C or even higher, just west of Humberside still seems to be the potential hot spot. UKV has a 42C, the others have a wide area of 40C (So an isolated 41C probable).

 

Further ahead, the models are still toying with backing the winds more to the south late next weekend and into the following week.

   

Worth watching as multiple models are hinting at this. The UKMO looks uninterested though.

 

 

25th July 1st day of holidays! 18Z was showing 14 degrees max, 00Z showing 34, can't we just have somewhere inbetween? hate one extreme to the other

[sunnijim]

The latest fax chart for 12pm Tuesday again delays the movement East of the cold Front ( two days ago it was predicted approaching Dorset at this time) now it is still off Lands End.

The angle of attack has also chanced from a  SW appoach  to a Southerly approach.

Edited July 18, 2022 by sunnijim