Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[CoxR]

it couldn't me more clear that the ECM is wrong. I wouldn't even be surprised if we see some eastern areas getting up to 38 on Wednesday 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, CoxR said:

it couldn't me more clear that the ECM is wrong. I wouldn't even be surprised if we see some eastern areas getting up to 38 on Wednesday 

38 on wednesday?? are you sure...surely you mean 28?

[Captain Shortwave]

I think we are settling on a high of 39c tomorrow. GFS goes for this, Arpege and Arome also go for 39c across Cambridgeshire.

Maybe the chance of 40c still, but lower odds than a day or so ago.

Arpege has a high of 41c for Tuesday. GFS 42c. 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

38 on wednesday?? are you sure...surely you mean 28?

GFS has 34’C Wednesday.

Edited July 17, 2022 by MattStoke

[bluearmy]

Just now, MattStoke said:

GFS has 34’C at midday Wednesday.

It just about does over e Anglia as it clears the plume only slowly wed am 

icon maxes around 29c on Wednesday 

 

[Frosty.]

This icon chart is HOT!   …I think records will be mashed get smash.. …and followed by a good dose of rain / thunder… ⛈ amber..amber..amber..amber..yep..AMBER.. followed by RED.. 41 / 42c max …isn’t it exciting?…...  

 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by jon snow

[CoxR]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

38 on wednesday?? are you sure...surely you mean 28?

no, 38. May be a bit high, but with the trend to delay the break down further and further in conjunction with a trend recently to increase the intensity of the plume slightly, I think mid-high 30s isn't out of the question for Wednesday

[minus10]

Well i was surprised at the amount of high and some medium level cloud today here in the south..

Despite that we reached 31 deg. For record temps i would have thought the skies would have to be clearer tomorrow at least...

Cant quite believe gfs 12z still showing 42 for Tuesday. ..

[Summer Sun]

Temps in the south still widely in the 30s on Wednesday

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Temps in the south still widely in the 30s on Wednesday

only 3 days out also..surely cant be wrong haha

[sunnijim]

24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm is wrong and its such a shame for a model of that calibre to not just be wrong but be STUBBORNLY wrong at a extremely short time frame!!

It came in for plenty of criticism during the last winter for its performance if memory serves.

For many years it was a concern if the ECM didn't buy into what the GFS and others were heralding.

However,we won't go there with 'That ECM' that bombed out on an Easterly within 96hrs in a Winter past.

Never thought the GFS would be my 'go to' model but it has performed pretty well this last 12 months.

Think it nailed the winter named storms well in advance.

[ShinyDave]

Just now, CoxR said:

no, 38. May be a bit high, but with the trend to delay the break down further and further in conjunction with a trend recently to increase the intensity of the plume slightly, I think mid-high 30s isn't out of the question for Wednesday

At the very least this has to increase the risk of Tuesday night being oppressive for a wider area if the breakdown slows up. GFS 12z already has 27C minimum for Humberside (I still can't calculate that registering as a real thing that might really happen) and 24C for basically anywhere along and east of the A1 corridor.

 

[sunnijim]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well i was surprised at the amount of high and some medium level cloud today here in the south..

Despite that we reached 31 deg. For record temps i would have thought the skies would have to be clearer tomorrow at least...

Cant quite believe gfs 12z still showing 42 for Tuesday. ..

Yeah,said the very same thing earlier.

We cleared cloud at times this afternoon and nudged 30c in SE London,but heating quite inconsistent from 1230pm.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, ShinyDave said:

At the very least this has to increase the risk of Tuesday night being oppressive for a wider area if the breakdown slows up. GFS 12z already has 27C minimum for Humberside (I still can't calculate that registering as a real thing that might really happen) and 24C for basically anywhere along and east of the A1 corridor.

 

yes pretty amazing really,but its monday night into tuesday the very warm night isnt it?

[tight isobar]

I’m just gonna leave this snap here via 12z gfs.. and let the suite unfold.. then come bk and comment!!!

[ShinyDave]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes pretty amazing really,but its monday night into tuesday the very warm night isnt it?

That's how it's looked (and is certainly the most widespread, entirety of England and Wales with a tropical night forecast by the looks of this 12z!) but a slower breakdown would set up a lot more places to have a second such night even if it then doesn't hang around long enough for a third straight historically hot day.

[Frosty.]

For those who thought Wednesday would be cool!!!!!!!!!…think again!  

[VillagePlank]

6 minutes ago, ShinyDave said:

At the very least this has to increase the risk of Tuesday night being oppressive for a wider area if the breakdown slows up

Dewpoints back up to their normal stuffy levels, too, by the end of Tues. Looking very uncomfortable indeed, with limited ability to sweat out a reasonable nights sleep!

[BenFreeman_91]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I’m just gonna leave this snap here via 12z gfs.. and let the suite unfold.. then come bk and comment!!!

I love your posts! As a complete novice, why are you so intrigued by this chart?

[Tamara]

The 12z GFS is utterly insane for the UK for Tuesday.   The widespread 40/41/42C values modelled in the afternoon are, genuinely, barely a smidge lower than what the model was suggesting for my locality in Portugal last week !   And that heat, fanned about by a fiery desert type breeze is an experience never to forget and it is (was) necessary to seek protection out of both the sun and the wind.

A brisk southerly breeze is also  predicted to be blowing across the middle/eastern part of the UK to accompany those temperatures and would add a wind burn effect much the same principle of accentuated wind chill with extreme cold in winter,   

Hard to avoid hyperbole. It is perfectly feasible. If this does indeed happen then it is sensational for the UK in respect of meteorological history. As another perspective, it is one thing to experience this kind of heat in small semi urban/countryside type locations with UHI much less of a factor and (relatively) cleaner air, but major cities in the UK are really going to struggle to function if this is anywhere close to the reality on the day. Before than the record (various records) still very likely to go anyway tomorrow.

[clark3r]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I’m just gonna leave this snap here via 12z gfs.. and let the suite unfold.. then come bk and comment!!!

Is it because low to the sw is going to draw up exceptional hot air again 

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, jon snow said:

For those who thought Wednesday would be cool!!!!!!!!!…think again!  

A pleasant 20c here. I’ll take that.

[h2005__uk__]

19 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes pretty amazing really,but its monday night into tuesday the very warm night isnt it?

 

20 minutes ago, ShinyDave said:

At the very least this has to increase the risk of Tuesday night being oppressive for a wider area if the breakdown slows up. GFS 12z already has 27C minimum for Humberside (I still can't calculate that registering as a real thing that might really happen) and 24C for basically anywhere along and east of the A1 corridor.

 

That's the maximum recorded in the hours (3 or 6 perhaps?) before 3am GMT (4am BST), rather than the minimum of the night.

Edited July 17, 2022 by h2005__uk__

[Bradley in Kent]

Afternoon all,

So the swinging pendulum that is model output is swinging less and less as we come within 48hrs. The last few runs on most models have slowed things down a touch (including the front on Tuesday) which has given us that wiggle room. We (as in people who want new records) needed that as there's less way for it to go further East now.

My main point however is how we will be entering unchartered territory from tomorrow. The models simply don't have the experience of these temperatures in this part of the world. We are talking a couple of degree differences which I don't feel even the best models can nail on in this unusual scenario.

Lots of variables; cloud, wildfire smoke, humidity, ground moisture, wind etc etc which can alter heating affects of the sun. 

Personally, especially after the 12z GFS, I'm going to give the chart watching a rest now and take my seat with a cold drink and popcorn. 

The show is about to begin. Stay cool, stay safe and enjoy. Lets go!

[h2005__uk__]

Just now, h2005__uk__ said:

 

That's the maximum recorded in the 6 hours before 3am GMT (4am BST), so likely to be the temperature at 10pm.

 

Below is the actual minimum on Tuesday night according to today's 12z GFS.