Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, seabreeze86 said:

40c in Redcar that is completely insane , almost as insane as us still not having a red warning in place 

37C around Eyemouth in Scotland, that would be an utter obliteration of the Scottish record.

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Encouraging for those seeking records that the AROME was on the money for western France today - seeing as it is forecasting quite a swathe of 40C for the UK on Tuesday.

Along with the ECM also being up to 39C raw temps now, I'm now thinking 40C is actually the more probable outcome in Tuesday.

And where is the warmest night record going to go? Lots of contenders for that! I suspect London at 25-26C tomorrow night, but AROME has some areas under a foehn effect in the west at quite ridiculous temperatures too!

Yeah I think its probably all academic really, just interesting as to why the GFS whiffed by so much when it nailed other places, would love to look at the profile.

The fact many other models are basicallyh at 40c makes me very confident that we will reach that level now. 

I think we will probably see a 40-41c on Tuesday, which would be a real smashing of the record for sure!

BTW AROME forecasting Heathrow for 39c tomorrow.

EDIT - as for night time, yeah Arome is nuts in places, localised 29-30c mins! Since 925mbs temps are as high as 30c anywhere with some good altitude may dip into that level and stay pretty hot.

AROME has maxes of 41c in localised spots on Tuesday.

Edited July 17, 2022 by kold weather

[A.J]

19 minutes ago, Jon Chalk said:

There's some big, dark clouds and heavy rain down Crewkerne / Ilminster way - don't remember seeing any of that sort of things in the models.

Anyone know what's driving this that the models don't show?

edit:...oh and Blitzortnung is showing a bit of lightning further West from there, between Taunton/Glastonbury...

to be fair, the UKV had a signal for a few showers over the west country down to the south coast this evening so its pretty much bang on

Edited July 17, 2022 by A.J

[Jon Chalk]

3 minutes ago, Hurricane Andrew said:

False radar or dry lign

Most likely fault radar returns 

 

 

Not according to my brother, underneath one and getting wet.....

[Southern Storm]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Andrew said:

False radar or dry lign

Most likely fault radar returns 

 

 

Definitely not false radar returns, lightning has been reported in the southwest, and I can see precipitation falling from the bases 

Whether anything is reaching the ground is another matter

[NTC]

1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

Definitely not false radar returns, lightning has been reported in the southwest, and I can see precipitation falling from the bases 

Whether anything is reaching the ground is another matter

[Hurricane Andrew]

1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

Definitely not false radar returns, lightning has been reported in the southwest, and I can see precipitation falling from the bases 

Whether anything is reaching the ground is another matter

cleary wasnt in forcast

[MildCarlilse]

Meteorologically,business as usual up here but watching with concern as we move closer to the hot days.

.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, NTC said:

Some of that went over me in Fareham just now, no rain at surface level but I can confirm suspiciously thundery clouds around. Don't think it was modelled to any extent?

[Scott Ingham]

13 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Just in the red warning area   A paltry 39/40C in the nearby amber  

ps, I know the difference isn't because of temperature. Did think they'd update it today, but alas no. We're a hardy bunch in Sheffield, no need for a red 

Hahaha mate we couldnt be in a worse spot for the next two days!

I may convert and become a naturist for comfort. 

Give the neighbours a shock

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Some of that went over me in Fareham just now, no rain at surface level but I can confirm suspiciously thundery clouds around. Don't think it was modelled to any extent?

ECM interestingly did have a small convective area on its 12z run in that area, though it looks more unstable than it expected.

Still quite an interesting little feature, I guess the extra push from the plume in the south just helped to destabilise things enough in the mid levels as the HP starts to withdraw eastwards. I've got admit the direction of movement is a touch odd mind you.

EDIT- looks like its being driven by the 700mbs wind flow, so quite a high base from the looks of things.

Edited July 17, 2022 by kold weather

[nick sussex]

How much effect will that rain in the north have on the following days temps .

Generally you need bone dry ground to help in setting records . 

[Snowy L]

12z MOGREPS, everyone still above 20C for 6pm in London, pretty much a certainty now.

 

 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

How much effect will that rain in the north have on the following days temps .

Generally you need bone dry ground to help in setting records . 

I'd imagine given how little rain we've had in the last few months that any rainfall will probably dry within a couple of hours and will just run off given they are reasonably small showers. Not sure how much is even making it to the ground either, I'm sure some is but it won't be of the intensity shown on radar I'd guess.

[Evening thunder]

3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Seemed pretty much spot on to me for the key plume area of the SW: They went for 40 and one of two 41C's and some 40 and 41C's is what we saw. And a scattering below that. Pretty impressive accuracy I reckon.

 

 

Can't completely say I agree when comparing actual maximums with the maximums predicted by the GFS (in my post).

A large area on the 06Z and previous runs was over 40C in the SW, with 42s and 43s, when in reality only isolated 40s were recorded. Near Nantes showed 39-40C, but the region has seen 35-36C maxima. 38C right up through Brittany also not seen. The 12Z run did tone it down a degree or two when the actual days temps were fed in.

Not trying to argue, just trying to post objectively what I see, as others suggested, it appears to overestimate for some areas due probably to dry ground conditions, whether that's the case in the UK or not it's going to be very interesting watching the temp observations come in.

On a different note, a heavy shower and rumble of thunder here in East Devon. So those showers are reaching the ground with very large drops (maybe not at the intensity shown). Wasn't expecting that.

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'd imagine given how little rain we've had in the last few months that any rainfall will probably dry within a couple of hours and will just run off given they are reasonably small showers. Not sure how much is even making it to the ground either, I'm sure some is but it won't be of the intensity shown on radar I'd guess.

I was talking more in relation to that rain in the north yesterday.

[viking_smb]

25 minutes ago, A.J said:

to be fair, the UKV had a signal for a few showers over the west country down to the south coast this evening so its pretty much bang on

they will start to die away soon.

[Jon Somerset]

Short sharp storm just watered my garden and freshened up the air.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

12z MOGREPS, everyone still above 20C for 6pm in London, pretty much a certainty now.

 

 

And tomorrow now has 16 out of seventeen members 35+ (up from 6! )

Tuesday all runs 37+ still 

 

 

[Nick F]

Fairly common to have mid-level convection on the leading edge of plumes moving north, this evening on the leading edge of the plume of heat pushing up from western France tonight. Must be some moisture in the middle levels, MUCAPE charts show instability leading to the Ac cas thundery showers in the SW. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Fairly common to have mid-level convection on the leading edge of plumes moving north, this evening on the leading edge of the plume of heat pushing up from western France tonight. Must be some moisture in the middle levels, MUCAPE charts show instability leading to the Ac cas thundery showers in the SW. 

 

GFS hints at some isolated elevated cells moving N tomorrow night too. Something to watch as even if cells are isolated, there may be a show…

 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by CreweCold

[Stormchaser17]

From the latest WRF 12z, no substantial changes compared to the 00z, the areas that should see the highest max temperatures seems to be confirmed.

Tomorrow, Monday

And the day after, Tuesday

Only notable change is that the area where the above +40°C are expected appears a bit larger, classic "dance" near nowcasting times now.

[JayAlmeida]

Short lived plumey thing a week tommorow?

ECM, ICON and GEM seem to think so...

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, JayAlmeida said:

Short lived plumey thing a week tommorow?

ECM, ICON and GEM seem to think so...

Looks to be a lot more humidity tied in to that one

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaser17 said:

From the latest WRF 12z, no substantial changes compared to the 00z, the areas that should see the highest max temperatures seems to be confirmed.

Tomorrow, Monday

And the day after, Tuesday

Only notable change is that the area where the above +40°C are expected appears a bit larger, classic "dance" near nowcasting times now.

Monday looks very close to a record breaker, decent area around the 38-39c mark.

Tuesday though is pretty emphatic smashing of any record that is managed tomorrow.