Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

Cheshire Freeze
 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

Recommended Posts

  • Popular Post
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted

Looking a week ahead....GFS throws this up:

image.thumb.png.45c5bc7c37e519211c3946bf005ced2e.pngimage.thumb.png.1d08eb2acba2d1ba78261684cdfe4579.pngimage.thumb.png.bb96822193bf68167a1933ba45acb6c4.png 
image.thumb.png.16677dae452e127a3fd0ccd6484a617c.pngimage.thumb.png.ad17110d14fbaa57d1ee5d01382cfc22.pngimage.thumb.png.91df6d952ed5347a1934900e6abda24d.png

Another couple of days into the mid/high 30s. Rinse and repeat?

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Absolutely none of the models handling the current showery activity in the south well at all. In fact most have absolutely nothing, I wonder whether that could be a spoiler for south today? It’s actually quite cloudy where I am currently. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
On 18/07/2022 at 07:19, Alderc said:

Absolutely none of the models handling the current showery activity in the south well at all. In fact most have absolutely nothing, I wonder whether that could be a spoiler for south today? It’s actually quite cloudy where I am currently. 

doubt it.

 

wall to wall sunshine here in Essex.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
slater Enthusiast

slater

Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
Posted (edited)

Wake up this morning to see GFS picking up the heat yet again for next week,unbelievable Jeff..

Edited by slater
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Alexis Seasoned

Alexis

Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Think we may scrap 39’C in one or two places today and set a new record but the model output has dropped the temperatures a bit.

Not such the case tomorrow where the model output has increased the temperatures.

5E162717-075E-4CB8-B319-7C1AD8EBD717.png

Isn't 44 and a fresh breeze an oxymoron? 😁

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, slater said:

Wake up this morning to see GFS picking up the heat yet again for next unbelievable Jeff..

The odd ensemble really going for it.

E1E742DD-F747-4EC5-96B9-207E4404B5A8.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tesaro Contributor

tesaro

Posted
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
Posted

Woke up this Morning to welcome in this possibly historic Day and it was Raining😬. Don’t remember a forecast for Showers Today. It was pretty Thundery out there Last Night, but mostly dry. Interesting. 🧐 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
slater Enthusiast

slater

Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
Posted
Just now, MattStoke said:

The odd ensemble really going for it.

E1E742DD-F747-4EC5-96B9-207E4404B5A8.png

It did this 11 days ago, for the Friday just gone, went AWOL, but firmed up obviously for Today and Tuesday instead as always take as a pinch of salt, but to happen again, would be crazy 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BenFreeman_91 Apprentice

BenFreeman_91

Posted
  • Location: Deeping St. James, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Deeping St. James, Lincolnshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The odd ensemble really going for it.

E1E742DD-F747-4EC5-96B9-207E4404B5A8.png

How many ensembles are going for a second plume next week? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JayAlmeida Aficionado

JayAlmeida

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
Posted

Amazing GFS 00z for heat/summer lovers. The other models all push the plume east with LP moving in before the plume can establish over the UK.

GEMOPEU00_168_1.png

ICOOPEU00_168_1.png

ECMOPEU00_168_1 (1).png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
4 minutes ago, BenFreeman_91 said:

How many ensembles are going for a second plume next week? 

Not many - has about 20% support, and the Op run was a massive outlier.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BenFreeman_91 Apprentice

BenFreeman_91

Posted
  • Location: Deeping St. James, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Deeping St. James, Lincolnshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not many - has about 20% support, and the Op run was a massive outlier.

Doesn't sound likely to at this stage then!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
seb Community Regular

seb

Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, BenFreeman_91 said:

Doesn't sound likely to at this stage then!

Ha! That’s what we said 2 weeks ago…

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BenFreeman_91 Apprentice

BenFreeman_91

Posted
  • Location: Deeping St. James, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Deeping St. James, Lincolnshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not many - has about 20% support, and the Op run was a massive outlier.

Doesn't sound likely to at this stage then!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ShinyDave Contributor

ShinyDave

Posted
  • Location: Newport/Casnewydd
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and quiet; snow can be nice too
  • Location: Newport/Casnewydd
Posted
4 minutes ago, seb said:

Ha! That’s what we said 2 weeks ago…

Indeed. And the continental heat isn't going away is it? So if and when the plume setup does emerge...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BenFreeman_91 Apprentice

BenFreeman_91

Posted
  • Location: Deeping St. James, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Deeping St. James, Lincolnshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, seb said:

Ha! That’s what we said 2 weeks ago…

That is true, I'll enjoy the next two days and see where we are! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
6 minutes ago, BenFreeman_91 said:

That is true, I'll enjoy the next two days and see where we are! 

Well I for one expect to be in the same location

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted

Something to unfortunately watch out is the risk of wildfires for today and tomorrow.

As we have seen in Portugal and Spain wildfires can become a huge issue sadly.

Screenshot_20220718-082321.thumb.jpg.834e1b787e885a9c84f170991209b257.jpgScreenshot_20220718-082304.thumb.jpg.78dd4961b0a046d7cfba7a9adc465571.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

image.thumb.png.667c9755a8f1e05d5889cd261b4d7635.png

If you are thinking there might be some rainfall relief in southern and eastern areas once this hot weather breaks down...GFS 00z says forget about it. Still little no rain in the forecast.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dangerous55019 Experienced

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted

Morning everyone. 🙂

Time for a quick look at the CFS v2 for the next four weeks, just to see if it'll shed any light on the subject...

Week 1 - 17th to the 23rd July: High pressure over the top us, and also slightly to the east... Yeah... What else can I say? Other than its looking like this dry spell will continue!

Week 2 - 24th to the 30th July: The high pressure appears to have relocated out in the Atlantic, and over Greenland and Iceland! Low(er) pressure over main land Europe, this could leave us in a North Easterly air flow. Will it give us some much needed rain? I'm not sure. 

Week 3 - 31st July to the 6th August: High pressure now out in the north Atlantic and spreading towards North Eastern Canada! Also a ridge over North Western Russia and Scandinavia! But it looks like we've got a small area of low pressure over the top of Scotland. Could this give us at least some rain that we now need?

Week 4 - 7th to the 13th August: A Scandinavian high now starting to stretch across main land Europe, and over us here in the UK! Sunny and settled once again I'd say, but this could also start to pull the winds up from out south east! Warming up again?

Ahh well... I'll have a look back in a few days. 

wk1.wk2_20220716.z500 (1).png

wk3.wk4_20220716.z500.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.667c9755a8f1e05d5889cd261b4d7635.png

If you are thinking there might be some rainfall relief in southern and eastern areas once this hot weather breaks down...GFS 00z says forget about it. Still little no rain in the forecast.

I hope the GFS is wrong, we really do need some rain soon down here, another warm and totally dry 2 weeks is going to be a problem.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Sorry if in wrong thread but temp according to my phone has gone up from 25 to 27 in just 20 mins...never seen that before...yes echoing what others say about lack of rain...to think we used to take rain for granted...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
seb Community Regular

seb

Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
Posted
9 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Sorry if in wrong thread but temp according to my phone has gone up from 25 to 27 in just 20 mins...never seen that before...yes echoing what others say about lack of rain...to think we used to take rain for granted...

Yep same here. 26.6 to 27.6 in 15 minutes on the local WOW station.

19 degrees at 6:30.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Just a note on predicted temps today

gfs was expecting 11am (remember the models are UTC)  31 to 34 c

ecm was expecting 29 to 32c

Icon was expecting 29 to 31c

it looks to be 29 to 32c but gfs seems to be closer to the expected highs later this afternoon than ecm on its pm predictions 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...