Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS still suggesting a high of 42c tomorrow

Still into the low thirties on Wednesday too.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

GFS still suggesting a high of 42c tomorrow

 

Gfs aint changing buddy!!its the ecm that kinda joined it in the end!!what time frame is the temp chart that you posted?!

[Snowy L]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Gfs aint changing buddy!!its the ecm that kinda joined it in the end!!what time frame is the temp chart that you posted?!

Means nothing until 24 hours, GFS wasn't changing for today with an area of 40Cs showing every run, then suddenly switched to 38C when within 24 hours.

[Mark Smithy]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Means nothing until 24 hours, GFS wasn't changing for today with an area of 40Cs showing every run, then suddenly switched to 38C when within 24 hours.

Yep but the nuance of that is because the plume was slightly slower to arrive so what you don't get today you get more fully at peak tomorrow, and still some residual on Wednesday which previously wasn't there at all.

GFS has been the closest to this all the way so it's a bit much to take a swipe at it now, no?

The steepness of the temperature elevation has astonished me: from relatively cool this morning to 30C by 10.30/11.00 is incredible. Again, GFS did call that right.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Yep but the nuance of that is because the plume was slightly slower to arrive so what you don't get today you get more fully at peak tomorrow, and still some residual on Wednesday which previously wasn't there at all.

GFS has been the closest to this all the way so it's a bit much to take a swipe at it now, no?

The steepness of the temperature elevation has astonished me: from relatively cool this morning to 30C by 10.30/11.00 is incredible. Again, GFS did call that right.

It wanted it hotter at 11am BST as per my post above. However, I think it will be closer with maxes later 

[i luv snow]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It wanted it hotter at 11am BST as per my post above. However, I think it will be closer with maxes later 

Couple of stations (Cambridge and London City) are at 33 at 11.30 so it’s not far off!

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

Couple of stations (Cambridge and London City) are at 33 at 11.30 so it’s not far off!

Well noon forecast was 33 to 35 so it’s a couple degrees too high as temps rise.  I think we have reached a point where we can state that gfs is over exuberant as temps rise through the morning but gets absolute maxes pretty close come late afternoon based on the past few days. 

[SLEETY]

Amazing gfs picked this out 10 days ahead,probably a fluke,of course,normaly miles out 10 days ahead, if we see 1987 type charts 10 days ahead this coming winter,it wont verify you can put money on that!

[i luv snow]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well noon forecast was 33 to 35 so it’s a couple degrees too high as temps rise.  I think we have reached a point where we can state that gfs is over exuberant as temps rise through the morning but gets absolute maxes pretty close come late afternoon based on the past few days. 

Yes maybe a degree. It’s widely 33 and a couple of 34s at noon, so it’s about on track I think. Let’s see what the arvo brings. Watching with some jealousy from Sydney where I’ve lived for 5 years now. 

[mb018538]

Tomorrow just has everything in place to be hotter. Overnight minimum will be much higher tonight, extreme 850 temps already in place from the off.....it's got 40c written all over it (barring any unexpected cloud spoilers). I'm not even sure today will beat the 38.7c...but it'll be mighty close.

[Rammie]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Tomorrow just has everything in place to be hotter. Overnight minimum will be much higher tonight, extreme 850 temps already in place from the off.....it's got 40c written all over it (barring any unexpected cloud spoilers). I'm not even sure today will beat the 38.7c...but it'll be mighty close.

I make it 34 here in Kettering already. Possibly another three or four hours to get that last bit. Then maybe break it again tomorrow

[Cambrian]

If anyone is thinking that what they’re observing or hearing about, or are seeing locally enhanced temperatures that might be due to a foehn effect, please consider sharing it on this topic thread that I set up over the weekend.

There’s some modest scope today, there’s very dry air over the south and east, more moisture to the west and north.

 

A bit more scope tomorrow perhaps.

 

[Snowy L]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well noon forecast was 33 to 35 so it’s a couple degrees too high as temps rise.  I think we have reached a point where we can state that gfs is over exuberant as temps rise through the morning but gets absolute maxes pretty close come late afternoon based on the past few days. 

With the official data in for noon GFS looking good.

 

[Weather-history]

GFS looks grim if you need rain

ECM is not quite as bad for some parts 

[feb1991blizzard]

Not been in here lately, any chance of any cold?

[DZee]

16 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

With the official data in for noon GFS looking good.

 

35 in Cambridge at 12.20

[Singularity]

50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well noon forecast was 33 to 35 so it’s a couple degrees too high as temps rise.  I think we have reached a point where we can state that gfs is over exuberant as temps rise through the morning but gets absolute maxes pretty close come late afternoon based on the past few days. 

Agreed, that’s what I’ve observed as a general tendency over the years. Boundary later is modified too rapidly in largely or (most of all) entirely sunny conditions which leads to temps rising then levelling off too soon. Even in mid-summer, it rarely predicts much of an increase between 12-3 pm and 3-6 pm when looking at the 3-hourly max temp parameter. The reality is typically a 2-3*C rise with a peak sometime between 4 & 6 pm.

Today with the very hottest airmass still arriving through the evening, maximums could be at the late end of that range, similar to yesterday.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not been in here lately, any chance of any cold?

Hey Feb glad to see your OK mate...come back in December and I can guarantee I will bring you 3 months of cold chasing and lead you up the garden path and promise you the holy grail at least a  1,000 times!

A few areas now pushing 35C...Cambridge one of those areas along side Luton..looks like we will come close...perhaps even equalling it!

I'm still thinking not a great deal of rain in the forecast over the next 10 days...and possibly quite summary at times...Water shortages for some could continue at this rate.

[tight isobar]

Maxing@34 currently @ Uxbridge.. tropical feel for sure!! 2/5 pm-will be intresting !!!

Edited July 18, 2022 by tight isobar

[DZee]

Sorry for the novice question (I am not a meteorologist), but do the global models factor in local factors such as the dryness of the soil, which would presumably require some 'behavioural' parameters capturing historical input of rainfall and temperatures at various locations. Right now, with everywhere already baked dry, i presume this favours greater heat? Is that factored in?

[Paul]

1 minute ago, DZee said:

Sorry for the novice question (I am not a meteorologist), but do the global models factor in local factors such as the dryness of the soil, which would presumably require some 'behavioural' parameters capturing historical input of rainfall and temperatures at various locations. Right now, with everywhere already baked dry, i presume this favours greater heat? Is that factored in?

Welcome to the community

Yes, the models do have fields for and factor in things like soil moisture. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS looks grim if you need rain

ECM is not quite as bad for some parts 

8-9 mm in two weeks here - the Great Eastern Desert extends...

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey Feb glad to see your OK mate...come back in December and I can guarantee I will bring you 3 months of cold chasing and lead you up the garden path and promise you the holy grail at least a  1,000 times!

A few areas now pushing 35C...Cambridge one of those areas along side Luton..looks like we will come close...perhaps even equalling it!

I'm still thinking not a great deal of rain in the forecast over the next 10 days...and possibly quite summary at times...Water shortages for some could continue at this rate.

good to see you to - the record could still go today -40-41c tomorrow my guess - more showers than forecast could occur though.

[DZee]

8 minutes ago, Paul said:

Welcome to the community

Yes, the models do have fields for and factor in things like soil moisture. 

Interesting. To be clear, do the models actually have an additional data input series for recorded soil moisture, or do they proxy it through historical data on local rainfall and temps?

[Scorcher]

Some could be surprised by how late the maxes for today happen. With such dry air we should see temps climbing even after 5pm. I think GFS is going to be pretty much on the money.