Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[nick sussex]

Meteo France have just issued a Red warning covering western France all the way upto Brittany .

Temperatures widely inland upto 38 to 40 c.

Some locations towards the southern Gironde could hit 43 to 44c .

All this lovely hot air is on the way to the UK !

Edited July 17, 2022 by nick sussex

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, bluearmy said:

I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this until we’ve seen the run repeat and have some support 

Cheers mate.  We really need some rain here in Norfolk.

[MattStoke]

31’C in a few places now.

GFS and UKV prediction for today: 31’C.

Edited July 17, 2022 by MattStoke

[bluearmy]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Cheers mate.  We really need some rain here in Norfolk.

Not sure how much precip the breakdown will bring - could be v hit and miss 

[ShinyDave]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh look. A GFS ensemble is showing 40’C on the 25th. How silly

More westerly peak than this plume too if it plays out precisely like that, which of course is an elephantine "if" at that range - the 40s are on the M4 corridor rather than the A1 corridor.

[tight isobar]

14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh look. A GFS ensemble is showing 40’C on the 25th. How silly

Watch the backing in supporting lines for this @ coming up!!

[bluearmy]

Just now, ShinyDave said:

More westerly peak than this plume too if it plays out precisely like that, which of course is an elephantine "if" at that range - the 40s are on the M4 corridor rather than the A1 corridor.

These should be repetitive over the next month it the heat dome persists to our south. The extended ens do not remove the possibility that europe continues to boil ……

[AWD]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Cheers mate.  We really need some rain here in Norfolk.

Nothing substantial showing up in any ensemble product really.  Mogreps below typical of any forecast expectations;

[Fiona Robertson]

Finally been able to log in after the server move! Thought I was gonna have to sit out this historic weather event. Anyway, on to models.

I noticed the amber alert area for Mon/Tues has been extended up the east coast of Scotland as far as Dundee, so that now includes me. Thankfully I'd already made plans for the horses for Mon/Tues, involving keeping them in their cool stables and hosing them down if necessary. However my model question is on the breakdown of this heat. Given I have to worry about heat and pasture etc and I'm rubbish at working out anything on the models, what sort of breakdown are we looking at? Is it just a gentle fading away or does it have a chance to go off with a bang. Last time I looked at dewpoints for my area on Tues it was saying 17C, but that was some time last week. Does anyone have the predicted dewpoints for the next few days and then can someone explain what it all means? I'm not looking for anyone to forecast the weather in my garden, just a little help in fathoming out what the models are telling me.

[hotsummer]

3 minutes ago, ShinyDave said:

More westerly peak than this plume too if it plays out precisely like that, which of course is an elephantine "if" at that range - the 40s are on the M4 corridor rather than the A1 corridor.

I posted about the chances of a re-warm up citing could you imagine. Now imagine this - hit 40c Mon then exceed Tues and hit again in the same year. It’s seems most unlikely but just seeing showing as a chance is enough. Mental.

Anyway, it does seem a drop from Weds before a trend towards 30c for a bit? 

[bluearmy]

1. First out the 12z blocks and icon is consistent on the Tuesday clearance - ec remains isolated 

[minus10]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Nothing substantial showing up in any ensemble product really.  Mogreps below typical of any forecast expectations;

I find the absence of ...shall we say more widespread convective rain during the breakdown quite staggering...given that humidity will be increasing, the very high temps and pressure lowering. 

No expert, but i would have thought with this set up being shown on the latest fax ..

Forming fronts, troughs and the forcing from the cold front that would be enough with the high temps to generate some decent storms, however BBC accumulated rainfull for the next few days shows little if any rain, particularly in the south east...crazy

 

[Frosty.]

I love the fact we are going to witness the highest temperature ever recorded in the u k!….amber / red warnings! ..I love record breakers..every Friday.. 5 pm..yess..bring on the heat! ..am I a crazy person..absolutely.. then they smash them all to bits..,! … 41c  .. that will do it..  

 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

13 minutes ago, AWD said:

Nothing substantial showing up in any ensemble product really.  Mogreps below typical of any forecast expectations;

Cheers.  It'll be as white (not brown, but white) as it was in 2018 again.

[nick sussex]

Jersey is now at 32.1c .

850 temps are around 21c.

Tomorrow they’re expecting those to hit around 25 to 26c.

Theres a chance they could hit 38c surface temperature tomorrow which would be amazing for an island .

Edited July 17, 2022 by nick sussex

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

I find the absence of ...shall we say more widespread convective rain during the breakdown quite staggering...given that humidity will be increasing, the very high temps and pressure lowering. 

No expert, but i would have thought with this set up being shown on the latest fax ..

Forming fronts, troughs and the forcing from the cold front that would be enough with the high temps to generate some decent storms, however BBC accumulated rainfull for the next few days shows little if any rain, particularly in the south east...crazy

 

I'd take the 10 mm, but otherwise agree.

[Saint coolio]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Meteo France have just issued a Red warning covering western France all the way upto Brittany .

Temperatures widely inland upto 38 to 40 c.

Some locations towards the southern Gironde could hit 43 to 44c .

All this lovely hot air is on the way to the UK !

Thx. I’ve been watching those meteofrance warnings and thinking the whole time they were at 36-38 “only” and mostly in the SW, that maybe our forecasts were overcooked. Not now!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Guys and gals I know your excited but the temps will reach what they will reach the next couple of days,regardless of what model goes the highest...its fate,I've seen it in the tea bags,the record will fall.....the locations are obviously yet to be confirmed  

I've noticed some have issues regarding cloud amounts and yes that's a potential problem....we've been plagued by high level cloud all day here,it keeps thinning out then becoming thicker again! This as the potential to shave a couple of degrees off the maximums...but I'm hopeful the sky will be clearer tomorrow,but don't be shocked if a location not expected to challenge the record ends up getting there!

Quick looks at some ens for next weekend show a fair few bringing decent summary conditions back in...not as Hot but nice all the same....perhaps High pressure gaining a foothold into the following week also! Summer is far from done.

My local app also brings a warmer trend back towards next weekend!

Anyway that's me gone my barbie seems to be polluting the street...I will have the Environment agency around

On a plus note I've just got my Father who as chronic Parkinsons outside for the 1st time in months for a little bit of fresh air...so hopefully that will make him feel a bit better.

A fab weekend to all of you...and KEEP COOL!

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

Thx. I’ve been watching those meteofrance warnings and thinking the whole time they were at 36-38 “only” and mostly in the SW, that maybe our forecasts were overcooked. Not now!

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 45 to 46c recorded in some parts . Likely later in the day as a finger of 27c uppers heads north up through the Landes and Gironde depts.

 

[Frosty.]

Honestly guys, I’m not great with words..so I will leave it to yoda!  

 

[nick sussex]

Arpege keeps the hot pool well into the evening for eastern areas on Tuesday so two models out so far both disagreeing with the ECM.

At 2pm the 20+ 850 line is in west Devon .

Edited July 17, 2022 by nick sussex

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Arpege keeps the hot pool well into the evening for eastern areas on Tuesday so two models out so far both disagreeing with the ECM.

At 2pm the 20+ 850 line is in west Devon .

Ecm is wrong and its such a shame for a model of that calibre to not just be wrong but be STUBBORNLY wrong at a extremely short time frame!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

looks a shade hotter on the 12z at 2pm tuesday,the front to the west not making much progress east

[Snowy L]

Huge area of 40+, might even be one spot of 43C just west of the Humber but can't tell with the doctor's style handwriting.

Edited July 17, 2022 by Snowy L

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

looks a shade hotter on the 12z at 2pm tuesday,the front to the west not making much progress east

A lot more 40s, 41s and 42s  

Edited July 17, 2022 by MattStoke