Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Anyway, possibly the biggest outlier of all time? 
 

Looks similar to what the GFS operational did in June 2019 and everyone thought it had lost the plot but actually turned out to be close to the mark.  Hopefully not this time!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Trough lovers, dont worry theres still hope

[Iceman2606]

What a stunning outlier we have here.

[Guest]

Another thing to note on the GFS it showed 47C, possibly 48C in central France and this challenging the all time European record. 

[Weather-history]

Bonkers!!!

29C at midnight?!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Another nice run from gfs,looking very warm by end of week widely mid 20's and into the weekend also..the following week looks like remaining dry also temps warm to very warm,occasionally hot in the south.this is shaping up to be a prolonged very warm spell as it stands 7/8 days at least

[Frosty.]

The ICON 0z  becomes very nice for the majority of the u k as high pressure brings a slow but steady return to summery weather during the week ahead, the only exception being the far north where Atlantic weather brushes around the top of the high, but for most, especially further south, it’s looking like becoming dry with plenty of sunshine and temperatures rising day by day well into the 20’s Celsius range! ️

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The ICON 0z  becomes very nice for the majority of the u k as high pressure brings a slow but steady return to summery weather during the week ahead, the only exception being the far north where Atlantic weather brushes around the top of the high, but for most, especially further south, it’s looking like becoming dry with plenty of sunshine and temperatures rising day by day well into the 20’s Celsius range! ️

 

 

Agreed..it looks like lasting some time also

[MattStoke]

An incredibly hot end to the GFS. Temperatures reaching 38’C on the 18th (39-41’C with the usual caveat of how it underestimates maximums), and that’s before hotter 850hpa temperatures (as high as 26’C) move in on the 19th. It doesn’t quite run far enough to see what temperatures it gives for the 19th but it would surely be 40’C+ in some places.

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by MattStoke

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean is shaping up very nicely for most of the u k during the next 10 days or so with a strongly anticyclonic influence developing, beyond that, perhaps tending to become more of a north / south split?.. which would continue to be good news for the south!..but that’s jumping a bit too far ahead, to me, this currently looks like gradually becoming the best spell of the summer so far in terms of dry and sunny weather for more of the u k than previously!!! ️ 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

temps at midnight! eh?

[Man With Beard]

36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

An incredibly hot end to the GFS. Temperatures reaching 38’C on the 18th (39-41’C with the usual caveat of how it underestimates maximums), and that’s before hotter 850hpa temperatures (as high as 26’C) move in on the 19th. It doesn’t quite run far enough to see what temperatures it gives for the 19th but it would surely be 40’C+ in some places.

 

And I'm guessing it would have been even hotter the next day!

The GFS continually wants to shift the high eastwards in FI, which would indeed be a catalyst for something exceptionally, but this pattern keeps getting pushed back.

It really isn't inconceivable considering what is predicted D6-D10, though.

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

temps at midnight! eh?

It's probably the minimum temps chart that would show the midnight temperature, but still toasty in the south west! All for fun of course, Daily Express editors need not quote anything

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Nice looking ECM high pressure dominating the whole run,it is currently looking increasingly hot especially for the South..the later frames 168-240 showed the hp moving in more strongly..168h onwards there hardly any breeze..I would imagine it will be hot by that stage!

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 0z operational looks great, even towards mid July! ️  

[Frosty.]

The GEM 0z op / mean also show summery weather coming back…let the good times roll! ️    

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by jon snow

[slater]

39 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The GEFS 0z mean is shaping up very nicely for most of the u k during the next 10 days or so with a strongly anticyclonic influence developing, beyond that, perhaps tending to become more of a north / south split?.. which would continue to be good news for the south!..but that’s jumping a bit too far ahead, to me, this currently looks like gradually becoming the best spell of the summer so far in terms of dry and sunny weather for more of the u k than previously!!! ️ 

 

With charts showing at last most of the UK joining in with the summer weather, here in Norfolk we had a cracking June, apart from the 5/6 cool cloudy and damp,. Worrying concern of the lack of rain here in the Far East. If no storms develop and no signs of significant rain this coming month then would be one of the longest period of no measurable rain.

[mb018538]

Lots of variation with temps next week still!

 

UKV a good 2-4c warmer than the ecm quite widely On Thursday for example.

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Lots of variation with temps next week still!

 

UKV a good 2-4c warmer than the ecm quite widely On Thursday for example.

Perhaps because this mornings ECM is the midnight temps..what do you think will be the max temps later this week?

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Lots of variation with temps next week still!

 

UKV a good 2-4c warmer than the ecm quite widely On Thursday for example.

Interestingly from a local perspective the UKV actually shows you almost exactly where the Pennines are ! West Yorks sheltered and a good 3 degrees warmer ..

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Perhaps because this mornings ECM is the midnight temps..what do you think will be the max temps later this week?

Both of those charts are for 3pm Thursday afternoon. Hard to say later in the week. Perhaps somewhere in the SE could be up at 28c by Friday.

[MattStoke]

I’d trust the UKV temperature projections over the ECM, from personal experience. ECM is often too low.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Both of those charts are for 3pm Thursday afternoon. Hard to say later in the week. Perhaps somewhere in the SE could be up at 28c by Friday.

That's great,it's gradually getting warmer..do you see this warm weather lasting into the following week?

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

That's great,it's gradually getting warmer..do you see this warm weather lasting into the following week?

Certainly looks warm out to the middle of the following week (12-13th July) at the moment. Beyond that it’s a bit far away to be sure.

[Methuselah]

Not quite so extreme according to today's GFS 00Z; still a lot of warm/hot sunshine on offer, however:

    

    

    

But should the last frame come to fruition (the odds must be stacked against it) I'll blame Jessie James: