Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow and good lord...I can't believe there is nit picking going on over events that may take place in around 7-10 days...one minute it's 40c could be on the way,the next a cloudfest and average! This is what happens when you dissect each and every run with a fine tooth pick...its not healthy trust me! And I think its obvious too all that there are some who are deliberately looking to rile other members on here by playing it all down..it happens very often in Winter and now it's creeping in more and more in Summer!

No complaints from me about tonight's mean..The weather becomes settled and eventually warmer I've said on numerous occasions recently that it could take a while for the NW to improve and that's still the case this evening.

But there is no point in getting stressed up over where the position of the HIGH will end up...it will end up where it wants to end up and not what every single operational run suggests.

Let's enjoy the ride and don't be falling for the bait folks

[ANYWEATHER]

A Normal British Warm spell, or even Hot Spell, looking forward to the fine spell...Down at the North Somerset  coast from the 11th onwards .Yippee , here comes Whippe and plenty of slush  puppies ☺☺☺

[seb]

I know the West/NW has not enjoyed proper summer weather but whether we have 22, 25 or 30 degrees down here, one thing is sure - it’s the driest I can remember. Perfect summer weather for the last 6-8 weeks but we have a problem.

Apart from 2 hours of very light rain last Wednesday night we’ve had nothing and there is nothing coming up as far as models go.

Just look at this picture I took yesterday. It looks like Spain or California.

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by seb

[Singularity]

Always worth bearing model bias in mind when analysing runs. Since public access to ECM & UKM charts improved dramatically, I’ve noticed that both tend to overdo cloud amounts a bit, resulting in max temps typically being a degree Celsius or two too low generally, occasionally 3-4 Celsius.

A similar bias to GFS - but that model has no excuse because it tends to underestimate cloud cover a bit!

So I believe the details from ECM & UKM are a little too pessimistic if you’d prefer it brighter and warmer. After all, it’s a strong high overlapping our lands, with impressively warm 850s arriving by Thu. Even with a lot of moisture in the airmass, that’s not a recipe for widespread overcast skies with trailing fronts failing to break up as they move over land.

Sure, it’s not going to be a stunning week of weather, but many of us could do a lot worse (the northwest may be an exception; here a lot of cloud seems likely).

[JayAlmeida]

56 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Thanks...so no heatwave,probably just warm and settled a fair shout at this point?

Matt Hugo seems hell bent on a terrible summer and is now predicting that the La Nina standing wave is going to hinder any sustained rise in AAM throughout July.

Everyone seems to have their own wildly differing opinions of what's going to happen based on their interpretations of the data.

Edited July 3, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Man With Beard]

Interesting synoptics! We seem to be headed for one of two options over the next 10-12 days: A) Increasingly warm or B) Increasingly warm and then hot.

This high pressure looks set to stick for a while but the question is whether it stays centered to the west or whether it can move through the UK. On balance of recent trends, it looks about a 60/40 split towards the former at the moment - models try to push the high through but the diving jet into central Europe stops it. Far from certain though.

But if it *does* get into central Europe ... some height of the summer heat will be pulled towards us.

25% chance of 35C being exceeded between D7 and D14?

Most models give a few days in the 80sF around next weekend at the very least, for S and E areas.

[Bristawl Si]

Very warm outlook.

[Paul]

Can we keep to discussing the model output please.

[January Snowstorm]

Looks like quite a cloudy week coming up but temps gradually nudging up as we near the weekend.

Less clear what happens over the weekend with the ECM less bullish in moving the high pressure over us. This is quite a change and has picked up much more energy to our Northwest which flattens out the high.

Next few days are crucial imo as to what type of Summer we get!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

39 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Matt Hugo seems hell bent on a terrible summer and is now predicting that the La Nina standing wave is going to hinder any sustained rise in AAM throughout July.

Everyone seems to have their own wildly differing opinions of what's going to happen based on their interpretations of the data.

He was also stating just a few days back that Summer proper would be arriving through the 1st half of July! The Exeter update looks very favourable and I think we are looking pretty good also! Far to many armchair experts on twitter and I'm very often left wondering if they're even analysing the models or just taking a speculative punt or hoping for the worse case scenario! Some thoughts from @Tamara would go down a treat just now...I think even some of the so called experts on twitter have learned quite alot from her analysis.

Slowly slowly we will get there. The Midlands Southwards should start to warm up,the further North you are the slower the progress.. so I can understand there would be some frustration from our Northern members..But you know the score,the South will always be better in Summer than the North for obvious reasons.

[Singularity]

A strong MJO event is now sending AAM upwards, likely peaking near neutral for a while in mid-July. It seems that as the MJO heads further east in the Pacific, there will be a short period during which the La Niña standing wave and the MJO event have near equal but opposite influences on AAM, causing to stay near neutral for up to a weak before falling away.

The big AAM climb is what brings the Azores High our way to begin with. One that reaches neutral should correspond to that high extending toward Central Europe with low pressure taking shape somewhere between the Azores and Iberia (the La Niña  forcing will likely prevent a full displacement of the Azores High with a broad Atlantic trough replacing it). That’s where the scope for a heatwave (and possibly very high temps on top of that) comes from. The big question is how quickly AAM reaches that point and just how far eastward the high will manage to extend. By the look of some model runs, there are some quite slow outcomes in the mix. ECM 12z being one of those - it’s still setting up a more plume-like situation via the Bay of Biscay as of D10 but has taken quite a winding road to get there).

Once AAM falls, that high should depart either to the east or northwest, but that currently doesn’t look to be until the final week of the month.

[Backtrack]

Can I please ask a question here.

 

I have been a member here for years, and so so so many people discuss ‘poor in the north west, fine in the south, wet in the north west’. 
 

Where is the north west that people are referring to when discussing? I live in north west England, are you referring to here? Or the north west as in Scotland?!

[Gordon Webb]

51 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Can I please ask a question here.

 

I have been a member here for years, and so so so many people discuss ‘poor in the north west, fine in the south, wet in the north west’. 
 

Where is the north west that people are referring to when discussing? I live in north west England, are you referring to here? Or the north west as in Scotland?!

depends on who you ask , for some it's North West Of Dover

[Polar Maritime]

Only Model Discussion in here please, Think before posting is my best advice from here onwards... Thanks all

[Nigelapplewhit4]

8 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Wow and good lord...I can't believe there is nit picking going on over events that may take place in around 7-10 days...one minute it's 40c could be on the way,the next a cloudfest and average! This is what happens when you dissect each and every run with a fine tooth pick...its not healthy trust me! And I think its obvious too all that there are some who are deliberately looking to rile other members on here by playing it all down..it happens very often in Winter and now it's creeping in more and more in Summer!

No complaints from me about tonight's mean..The weather becomes settled and eventually warmer I've said on numerous occasions recently that it could take a while for the NW to improve and that's still the case this evening.

But there is no point in getting stressed up over where the position of the HIGH will end up...it will end up where it wants to end up and not what every single operational run suggests.

Let's enjoy the ride and don't be falling for the bait folks

Latest GFS shows stronger high pressure than previously predicted on Saturday 

[Nigelapplewhit4]

4 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Latest GFS shows stronger high pressure than previously predicted on Saturday 

 Still looks hot for Tuesday 12th July - Thursday July 14th across parts of England and East Wales . I wont post after +10 days as that is FL. Parts of the South could still be 30 degrees at midnight on Friday 15th July. . 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Nigelapplewhit4

[Nigelapplewhit4]

7 hours ago, Singularity said:

A strong MJO event is now sending AAM upwards, likely peaking near neutral for a while in mid-July. It seems that as the MJO heads further east in the Pacific, there will be a short period during which the La Niña standing wave and the MJO event have near equal but opposite influences on AAM, causing to stay near neutral for up to a weak before falling away.

The big AAM climb is what brings the Azores High our way to begin with. One that reaches neutral should correspond to that high extending toward Central Europe with low pressure taking shape somewhere between the Azores and Iberia (the La Niña  forcing will likely prevent a full displacement of the Azores High with a broad Atlantic trough replacing it). That’s where the scope for a heatwave (and possibly very high temps on top of that) comes from. The big question is how quickly AAM reaches that point and just how far eastward the high will manage to extend. By the look of some model runs, there are some quite slow outcomes in the mix. ECM 12z being one of those - it’s still setting up a more plume-like situation via the Bay of Biscay as of D10 but has taken quite a winding road to get there).

Once AAM falls, that high should depart either to the east or northwest, but that currently doesn’t look to be until the final week of the month.

Where can i see the AAM forecast for August 2022? 

[clark3r]

On holiday in turkey at the moment was 38 degrees yesterday, the gfs this morning looks pretty superb for Uk, after Friday temps look 80 degrees + until the end of the run,

[sheikhy]

A move towards gfs from ecm up to 168 hours which is fantastic news!!not the first time in the last few months either!!seems the ecm is goin through a rough period recently!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

A move towards gfs from ecm up to 168 hours which is fantastic news!!not the first time in the last few months either!!seems the ecm is goin through a rough period recently!!

Yes a better ECM run,I'm thinking this could also be a colder option in the ensembles,just a feeling

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes a better ECM run,I'm thinking this could also be a colder option in the ensembles,just a feeling

Yeh there after its not as good but early on its a lot better!!!!whats ukmo saying mate?!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh there after its not as good but early on its a lot better!!!!whats ukmo saying mate?!!

UKMO at 144 is kind of similar but heights don't look quite as strong

[Frosty.]

Ukmo 0z looks fine to me, literally! ️ 

[mountain shadow]

A pretty depressing ECM run this morning.

The Azores never really makes it and starts to return home at the end of the run opening up the risk of Northerlies at the end of the run. So, maybe a few warm cloudy days for the North West then returning to cloudy, damp and cool.

[bluearmy]

Interesting…

all the extended ens means are finding an Atlantic trough later in week 2. That does raise the notable plume stakes. 
 

tome to check the eps clusters to see how much support there actually is. (The eps control finds 36c late on in the se)