Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[damianslaw]

Subtle variances in the position of the building high from ECM, UKMO and GFS, UKMO shorter range of the 3 models shows a quicker path to something sunstantively warmer nationwide, but it only goes out to Sunday so we don't know if the high will ridge sufficiently east to draw in a hotter continental flow, GFS much less keen, and maintains heights to the west, ECM continues to do the same, has a go at building them east but then pushes them back west.

We need to keep an eye on energy off the USA seaboard and any shortwave activity to our NW which could scupper the building of heights strongly through the UK at least for early next week. Southern parts do look set for a lengthy warm/very warm spell, note I am not using the word hot just yet, further north and west, much nearer average temps.

Just a polite word for those who keep posting charts showing 40 + degrees, and speculating on such heat, can you please revert to the thread I created 2022 season max temp watch... thank you!

[Nigelapplewhit4]

15 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Yes - 50 miles away it could be 30-32 while Manchester only maxing at 23! Even leeds is 28-29 and Nottingham 29-30. Very frustrating for those in Chester/Manchester area with overcast skies! I won't go any further and will have my rants on the observations pages next week when the heatwave is a washout for those in the West of England. 

The only way it will hit 40 is in my conservatory. Saying that it was 42 there today while only 16 outside. !

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Subtle variances in the position of the building high from ECM, UKMO and GFS, UKMO shorter range of the 3 models shows a quicker path to something sunstantively warmer nationwide, but it only goes out to Sunday so we don't know if the high will ridge sufficiently east to draw in a hotter continental flow, GFS much less keen, and maintains heights to the west, ECM continues to do the same, has a go at building them east but then pushes them back west.

We need to keep an eye on energy off the USA seaboard and any shortwave activity to our NW which could scupper the building of heights strongly through the UK at least for early next week. Southern parts do look set for a lengthy warm/very warm spell, note I am not using the word hot just yet, further north and west, much nearer average temps.

Just a polite word for those who keep posting charts showing 40 + degrees, and speculating on such heat, can you please revert to the thread I created 2022 season max temp watch... thank you!

I knew i was going to get told off ! I'm sorry!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

P7 on GFS is showing THREE days of 41C temps, dont forget you can always add on 2C lol

 

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

P7 on GFS is showing THREE days of 41C temps, dont forget you can always add on 2C lol

 

Blimey . What does Cornwall have to do for a bit of heat eh . 

[sheikhy]

Ecm looks fabulous this evening!!!

[summer blizzard]

Euro has another unlikely outcome in my opinion. The Azores Low phases enough in about a week that another high forms to its north west but gets dropped again resulting in a messy plume vs retrogression battle by day 10. 
 

[Singularity]

A common feature of both the ECM & GFS runs is a low heading due northward from the eastern Mediterranean in 7-8 days time. This merges with an incoming Atlantic low and enables a broad trough over Scandinavia when otherwise there would be much less of a feature there.

The eastern Med export is an unusual event so I’m wary of taking it seriously at the current lead time. If it is to happen, it conflicts with the move to lower heights to the west of Europe that we ought to se attempted around 15th or so (as AAM  nears the peak of its climb), so will be tough for the models resolve - in which case we might see a fair few more peculiar-looking runs in the days ahead.

[Paul]

Interesting blog from @Nick F - looking at the models and the prospects for a heatwave this month. 

Is there a July heatwave on the way?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Blog looking at potential for a heatwave developing across southern Britain within the next few weeks, though it perhaps won't get to 41C like a few model runs have shown over the weekend.

 

[kold weather]

51 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

P7 on GFS is showing THREE days of 41C temps, dont forget you can always add on 2C lol

 

I don't normally comment on individual ensemble runs that far out, but that is without any doubt the warmest EVER run I've seen in my 18 years on here.

There are some pretty impressive ensemble runs on that set of runs, but that P7 is beyond outrageous.

Anyway a long way to go yet, but I can definately see a path that allows up heat into the south even if its not quite as outrageous as that ensemble member.

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean sure is peachy!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

As always there will be know complaints from me on the current output...the mean looks fab. Those further NW may be still a little skeptical regarding cooler temps and more in the way of cloud. NW UK still prone to less settled at times... The further South the better the conditions and the warmer we go.

I still think these conditions will finally become more extensive with time...hang on in there.

Get ready to enjoy Summer lovers.

Edit...your to quick for my liking Karl 

Edited July 4, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[minus10]

15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I don't normally comment on individual ensemble runs that far out, but that is without any doubt the warmest EVER run I've seen in my 18 years on here.

There are some pretty impressive ensemble runs on that set of runs, but that P7 is beyond outrageous.

Anyway a long way to go yet, but I can definately see a path that allows up heat into the south even if its not quite as outrageous as that ensemble member.

Its a good job that the 850s graph temp axis was extended a few days ago...some crazy gfes on this one..all be it too far out to take too seriously...yet..mean doesnt look too bad though...

Edited July 4, 2022 by minus10

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Yes - 50 miles away it could be 30-32 while Manchester only maxing at 23! Even leeds is 28-29 and Nottingham 29-30. Very frustrating for those in Chester/Manchester area with overcast skies! I won't go any further and will have my rants on the observations pages next week when the heatwave is a washout for those in the West of England. 

Might not be that extreme to be honest Nigel and there is still time for things to change. Could well end up hot and sunny across the NW as well- all I'm saying is it's on a knife-edge and could go either way.

[bluearmy]

The eps control again finds 36c in the se late week 2 

no change to the Atlantic mean upper trough on all ens output in the extended 

 

[Singularity]

The 12z EPS clusters make for interesting viewing. The deterministic run fits into the cluster with the most developed Scandinavian trough (#3), which contains just 11 of 51 members, about 21.5%. That suggests that the feature is more likely to be smaller and further to our east, allowing the high to extend across the North Sea a bit more. Broadly speaking, that makes the hotter outcomes more likely going forward.

Personally, that's not my preferred outcome, considering just how hot it could feasibly become, but it is what it is.

Looking further ahead - for what it's worth - the majority cluster brings a gradual breakdown from the west, but it only has one member more than the 2nd largest cluster, which has the pattern that would send very hot air northward across at least southern parts of the UK. It has 35% of the members, which is a lot for such an extreme scenario at 11-15 days lead time.

The remaining cluster of 14 runs is tricky to read into. It has that '2 things at once' appearance, akin to the 12z GFS run.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, I believe the criteria for a heatwave will be met, at least across the s / se!…and not just the GEFS either!!! ️ …I’m hoping northern u k can join in the summer fun this time around rather than the south hogging all the hot sunshine as usual… !!!

 

[JayAlmeida]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I'm not overly thrilled by tonight's runs from a selfish perspective. We are on a knife-edge in the west of the country in this sort of setup, with the high never quite settling over the top of the UK. No doubt it will be warm from the weekend onwards, but  if the dice doesn't fall our way we could be stuck in the low 20s with only occasional sunshine around here.

I hope I'm wrong of course, but I fear areas only 50 miles or so to the east could be scorching while we get 22/23C and lots of cloud.

GEM looking decent for the NW so its not all doom and gloom. We definetly need the high to pass eastwards to get the best outcome.

Edited July 4, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Uncertainty]

This summer is looking quite troubling heat wise for most of europe.

Such a striking, and consistent, signal for persistent high temps on the 46

W2

W3

W4

W5

As James has pointed out, in the medium term, a pattern at least conducive to a very hot spell of weather for England looks plausible late next week. Some of those wacky gfs runs were a bit extreme, but they do highlight the possibility space we are now entering. And if the 46 is onto something, such chances will remain possible further down the line this summer. This is a La Niña summer after all, something to ponder…

As for those suggestions of a washout in western ‘England’, the present forecasts don’t support such an outcome. Western Scotland perhaps…

 

[kold weather]

Just thumbing through the individual ensemble members on the GFS, whilst none are quite as extreme as that P7 run, there are a surprising number that end up reaching 35C+. There are also some that don't even reach 20C.

So very interesting time to come...

Special mention to P14 as well, which goes for maxes of 35C for 5 days, and breaks the record twice in a row with a 39 and then a 40c a few days later, and just for fun then does it AGAIN the day after...

EDIT- whilst mixed, thats still probably one of the hottest ensemble runs I've seen, so many runs get a max of 34-35C+ at some point. I'm looking at some of them and thinking "they aren't that hot"...then I look at scale again and remember they are showing 35C...crazy suite.

Edited July 4, 2022 by kold weather

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

Special mention to P14 as well, which goes for maxes of 35C for 5 days, and breaks the record twice in a row with a 39 and then a 40c a few days later, and just for fun then does it AGAIN the day after...

Doubt it'd be much fun for people having to do the daily grind in.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just got in from work and can tell you that the ext UKMO is nice viewing with that high pressure slap bang over the UK and i think from there there would be an even warmer plume from the south thanks to that Azores LP and possibley thundery.

[seabreeze86]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Doubt it'd be much fun for people having to do the daily grind in.

 

Just hoping to break 24 degrees up here and for it not to be windy. GFS ensembles no different in summer than they are in winter cannon fodder. I’ve had the -15hpa IMBY 100 times every winter according to the ensembles 

[Kentspur]

10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Just a very warm tropical maritime airmass doing its bad things. Airmass off the ocean inevitably has loads of cloud tied in. As the air dries out as it crosses to the east of the country, cloud thins out and and the air warms up, setting up the sort of scenario where it could be mid to upper teens in the NW, and mid to high twenties in the SE as shown on numerous charts. If the high would just shift east a bit we'd cut the maritime influence out and it'd be widely more sunny and warmer for all.

Just for fun - way out in FI, the 6z GFS run features three days of 31-32c on the 17-19th July:

 

Not sure it will be just for fun looks realistic perhaps I assume BBC is using ECM

[Allseasons-Si]

Just took a gander at the CPC/NOAA 6-10 and the 8-14 day height anomalies and these are finally getting there with the +ve hieghts over the UK,forget about the upper westerlies when you have a surface high over the UK

and just to tuch up on the heat scale,...who want's 30-40+c when it becomes unbearable to work and sleep in,...up to 30c is enough to enjoy and get out and about in

keep safe all and and have a good evening

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z is actually a lot like the Euro12z in its outcome to say 10 with the strange half phase of the Azores Low. I would suggest it's an unlikely outcome.