Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Singularity]

Looks like the answer is ‘no’, although it wasn’t a very convincing outcome in the end, bit too messy - as if it was trying to do two things at once.

A broad trough over Scandinavia with a hot high to its south and the UK peripheral to that (still potentially hot in south at times) did have a little support in the 00z EPS, though.

[MattStoke]

Seems to be a trend to lower heights a bit in the medium to longer term. That’s bring the risk of some less settled conditions but potentially more heat.

Edited July 4, 2022 by MattStoke

[Methuselah]

I just checked the BBC app whatsit and apart from a string of 23s, 24s and 25s, there's nowt too hot: there are no 42C days. Alleluia!

[JayAlmeida]

GEM and ICON making the heat a bit more widespread early next week. One fly in the ointment is that the GEM wants to bin the decent uppers by next Wednesday though. Could be outliers just have to wait and see. Much more pleasing temperatures across the model output this evening in the shorter range. 

 

Over to you ECM

Edited July 4, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Frosty.]

Wowzers  what an EPIC Ukmo 12z, the best of this summer so far in terms of nationwide summery weather! ️  

Edited July 4, 2022 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Wowzers  what an EPIC Ukmo 12z, the best of this summer so far in terms of nationwide summery weather! ️  

A Tippex outlook, Karl:Well, come on, it used to (like 50-years ago) say 'Parfait'!

[Guest]

 

44 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I just checked the BBC app whatsit and apart from a string of 23s, 24s and 25s, there's nowt too hot: there are no 42C days. Alleluia!

Maybe not on the BBC

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Maybe not on the BBC

I think that’s the hottest GFS ensemble chart ever output.

[minus10]

25 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Wowzers  what an EPIC Ukmo 12z, the best of this summer so far in terms of nationwide summery weather! ️  

Wow cant believe that ukmo JS...for Monday 11th...hp right over us snd not to the sw as other models keep showing..

Lets hope it is onto something as i am meeting some friends that day in London and it would be good to sit outside and feel summery..

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Maybe not on the BBC

If that should ever come off, it'll be 'up there' with those (invented for the purpose) 1930s temps!

[mb018538]

Very nice ECM run too. Warmest chart is 31/32c on Tuesday 12th, but it's warm throughout in many areas.

[Nigelapplewhit4]

12 hours ago, sheikhy said:

A move towards gfs from ecm up to 168 hours which is fantastic news!!not the first time in the last few months either!!seems the ecm is goin through a rough period recently!!

Massive downgrade in temperature predictions for the West Midlands/NE Wales. Temps only reaching 20-22 over the next 10 days. 

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If that should ever come off, it'll be 'up there' with those (invented for the purpose) 1930s temps!

No way will it hit 42 degrees during this heatwave. Its not physcially possible with the synoptic outlook! 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I think that’s the hottest GFS ensemble chart ever output.

Yep 42C, don’t think we’ve seen a 42C, next step a 110f at 43.4C?

[Nigelapplewhit4]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Maybe not on the BBC

Meteogroup who use ECMWF are only predicting 28 in the SE on that date. In my area (Wrexham) its only show 22 not 34 - even London only has a feels like temp of 33 not 42

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Yep 42C, don’t think we’ve seen a 42C, next step a 110f at 43.4C?

It will never happen in my lifetime - maybe in the 2050s or 2060s when i'm dead. 

[Nigelapplewhit4]

39 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Wowzers  what an EPIC Ukmo 12z, the best of this summer so far in terms of nationwide summery weather! ️  

Met office text forecast nothing like what is shown in their models- before we get there we will face overcast skies all week. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Meteogroup who use ECMWF are only predicting 28 in the SE on that date. In my area (Wrexham) its only show 22 not 34 - even London only has a feels like temp of 33 not 42

It will never happen in my lifetime - maybe in the 2050s or 2060s when i'm dead. 

It doesn't matter anyway, guys: it was much warmer back in the Miocene!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Meteogroup who use ECMWF are only predicting 28 in the SE on that date. In my area (Wrexham) its only show 22 not 34 - even London only has a feels like temp of 33 not 42

It will never happen in my lifetime - maybe in the 2050s or 2060s when i'm dead. 

I think it will likely happen in my lifetime, albeit I 'might' be old which could be a bad thing!

[Scorcher]

I'm not overly thrilled by tonight's runs from a selfish perspective. We are on a knife-edge in the west of the country in this sort of setup, with the high never quite settling over the top of the UK. No doubt it will be warm from the weekend onwards, but  if the dice doesn't fall our way we could be stuck in the low 20s with only occasional sunshine around here.

I hope I'm wrong of course, but I fear areas only 50 miles or so to the east could be scorching while we get 22/23C and lots of cloud.

[Nigelapplewhit4]

Just now, Scorcher said:

I'm not overly thrilled by tonight's runs from a selfish perspective. We are on a knife-edge in the west of the country in this sort of setup, with the high never quite settling over the top of the UK. No doubt it will be warm from the weekend onwards, but  if the dice doesn't fall our way we could be stuck in the low 20s with only occasional sunshine around here.

I hope I'm wrong of course, but I fear areas only 50 miles or so to the east could be scorching while we get 22/23C and lots of cloud.

Yes - 50 miles away it could be 30-32 while Manchester only maxing at 23! Even leeds is 28-29 and Nottingham 29-30. Very frustrating for those in Chester/Manchester area with overcast skies! I won't go any further and will have my rants on the observations pages next week when the heatwave is a washout for those in the West of England. 

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm not overly thrilled by tonight's runs from a selfish perspective. We are on a knife-edge in the west of the country in this sort of setup, with the high never quite settling over the top of the UK. No doubt it will be warm from the weekend onwards, but  if the dice doesn't fall our way we could be stuck in the low 20s with only occasional sunshine around here.

I hope I'm wrong of course, but I fear areas only 50 miles or so to the east could be scorching while we get 22/23C and lots of cloud.

Could be a Pennines job. Get on the eastern side and it could be like a different country!

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Very nice ECM run too. Warmest chart is 31/32c on Tuesday 12th, but it's warm throughout in many areas.

Again  you can clearly see the NW / SE split with a continuance of the dross the further North and West you get.

[A Face like Thunder]

42C = 107.6F. Think I'll emigrate .... to somewhere cooler like Thailand or Singapore 

Seriously, if temperatures are going to get anywhere near this warnings would be issued. Also I'm trying to think of the effects on the NHS, given that Covid admissions are rising. Think back to France & the UK in 2003 for a comparison.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Scorcher]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Could be a Pennines job. Get on the eastern side and it could be like a different country!

This has certainly happened before with the Azores in play. We do far better with a S/SE flow here. That said, sometimes the Manchester/Cheshire area is just far enough south and east to benefit, while the rest of the NW is much cooler.

[summer blizzard]

Very unlikely to happen in the manner we see on the GFS12z because the shortwave which picks up the Azores Low is so weak but that is another of the solutions piling up which suggest a whimper to end from the north.

Still a lot of inter run variation.

[Sweatyman]

8 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Yes - 50 miles away it could be 30-32 while Manchester only maxing at 23! Even leeds is 28-29 and Nottingham 29-30. Very frustrating for those in Chester/Manchester area with overcast skies! I won't go any further and will have my rants on the observations pages next week when the heatwave is a washout for those in the West of England. 

make your mind up ! 28 29 nottm when u just said 22 23 mids!