Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[JayAlmeida]

UK weather: Brits set for summer sizzler with 41C heatwave as 'Bermuda High' closes in | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

BRITS are set for a summer sizzler as experts predict highs of 41C by the middle of the month amid concerns of a hose pipe ban.

The MSM is starting to pick up on the more extreme GFS charts now. It'll be very interesting to see how things work out.

Edited July 5, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[kold weather]

Just looking at the individual runs of the 06z GFS, again a good number are getting into the 30s, indeed quite a few are now reaching 33-35c maxes. Some flatten out the pattern quicker but even they are more often than not eventually bringing in heat through a 2nd bite of the cherry. Perhaps not quite the extreme heights of the previous runs, but probably more into the 30s than previous runs.

[Frosty.]

Here’s one of the highlights from the GEM 0z ensembles, a real GEM .. …just seen England win by 7 wickets against India, with that and P8..I’m feeling good right now!.. cheers  

 

 

[mountain shadow]

27 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

UK weather: Brits set for summer sizzler with 41C heatwave as 'Bermuda High' closes in | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

BRITS are set for a summer sizzler as experts predict highs of 41C by the middle of the month amid concerns of a hose pipe ban.

The MSM is starting to pick up on the more extreme GFS charts now. It'll be very interesting to see how things work out.

Is The Express a mainstream media organisation?  A far right wing sensationalist rag more like.

 

[Lord Grogon]

Gotta love the ending. From 26C 850hpa to 11C in under 5 hours. Would be rather lively.

[mb018538]

 

Interesting 6z ensemble. A couple of things stick out. Around the 13th-15th there seems to be a bit of a split - some runs go cooler, but this is also where the extreme heat runs start appearing. The op run stands out, but there are quite a few others between 15-25c, so the signal for something very hot can’t be ignored. Secondly - rainfall spikes starting to show. Looking at the pressure ensemble it’s clearly declining, so there are early signs that just after mid month we may see a breakdown, and with it the greater chance of some much needed rain.

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Gotta love the ending. From 26C 850hpa to 11C in under 5 hours. Would be rather lively.

Actually it’s all rather uninteresting, nothing suggesting a thundery breakdown at all. Just a rapid decrease in temperature. These high temps are being modelled with super low humidity. 

[ANYWEATHER]

2 hours ago, JayAlmeida said:

UK weather: Brits set for summer sizzler with 41C heatwave as 'Bermuda High' closes in | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

BRITS are set for a summer sizzler as experts predict highs of 41C by the middle of the month amid concerns of a hose pipe ban.

The MSM is starting to pick up on the more extreme GFS charts now. It'll be very interesting to see how things work out.

The Daily Express Extreme. Noted for its sensational headlines on extreme weather .Now that's cursed that 41c heatwave

[ANYWEATHER]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The Daily Express Extreme. Noted for its sensational headlines on extreme weather .Now that's cursed that 41c heatwave

PS , the same Paper that gives us headlines of Snowmageddon in Winter and minus Stupid temps and never happen

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The Daily Express Extreme. Noted for its sensational headlines on extreme weather .Now that's cursed that 41c heatwave

So that's where you get your 1930s' weather 'data' from . . . old copies of the Daily Excrete?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

We are looking good with the icon towards day 5.

The Exeter update for the North of the UK looks poor it as to be said. Further south looks grand and very warm possibly Hot at times!

Word of caution regarding these met updates....for me they've been poor for some time,they've just updated for my West Midalnds Area and they state tomorrow will start cloudy especially around the coast! Wow...we are 100 miles away from the coast! Utterly bizarre write up yet again.

7-10 days should be the limit for these forecasts...trying to compile a forecast for 3 and 4 weeks and 9/10 times you will end up looking stupid...regardless of being a pro or not!

In a nutshell its improving big time for a decent portion of Central England Southwards...those much further North may have to wait a while longer.

Be sun safe!  

Edit...pressure does look a tad squeezed South by day 5...and that more unsettled theme further NW is obvious too see.

Edited July 5, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

I couldn’t let the Gfs 6z operational slip away without posting these charts!…just insane, never seen 850’s that high, not surprised 100F + is shown… WOWZERS! ⛈

 

 

[Scorcher]

25 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

We are looking good with the icon towards day 5.

The Exeter update for the North of the UK looks poor it as to be said. Further south looks grand and very warm possibly Hot at times!

Word of caution regarding these met updates....for me they've been poor for some time,they've just updated for my West Midalnds Area and they state tomorrow will start cloudy especially around the coast! Wow...we are 100 miles away from the coast! Utterly bizarre write up yet again.

7-10 days should be the limit for these forecasts...trying to compile a forecast for 3 and 4 weeks and 9/10 times you will end up looking stupid...regardless of being a pro or not!

In a nutshell its improving big time for a decent portion of Central England Southwards...those much further North may have to wait a while longer.

Be sun safe!  

Edit...pressure does look a tad squeezed South by day 5...and that more unsettled theme further NW is obvious too see.

I'm not liking that ICON run to be honest Matt- we basically get one hot day in these parts on Monday and then it breaks down on Tuesday- although the SE would be hot on Tuesday as well. Sunday looking like a hot day potentially in the south, but we will be lucky to make 25C here.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

26 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm not liking that ICON run to be honest Matt- we basically get one hot day in these parts on Monday and then it breaks down on Tuesday- although the SE would be hot on Tuesday as well. Sunday looking like a hot day potentially in the south, but we will be lucky to make 25C here.

Yes mate it looks to me that the Midlands South will get a fair amount of summery conditions over the next 10 or so days. But that NW quadrant looks much more dicy...You guys around NW England could be prone to more in the way of cloud and some precipitation at times. But it's that far NW of the UK that must be thoroughly peed off at this stage.

Let's see where the 12s from the big guns take us.

Looking OK at day 5..unbroken sun here now...topping up the tan and living the dream as always

Bang on @Don that made me laugh  

Edited July 5, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Don]

48 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The Exeter update for the North of the UK looks poor it as to be said. Further south looks grand and very warm possibly Hot at times!

Word of caution regarding these met updates....for me they've been poor for some time,they've just updated for my West Midalnds Area and they state tomorrow will start cloudy especially around the coast! Wow...we are 100 miles away from the coast! Utterly bizarre write up yet again.

 

Yes, I noticed the downgrade for northern areas on today's update, Matt, but plenty of time for twists and turns as we often say in winter!

As for their forecast for the West Midlands being cloudy around the coast, maybe they expect sea levels to rapidly rise overnight as a result of accelerated climate change?!  

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Both the UKMO and GFS have the high right over us by day 5

  
 

Edging eastwards into next week. The GFS looks better for a longer period of settled weather than the 06z. 
Edit - well more amplified ridge did squat later on, completely flattened a day or so later.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I noticed the downgrade for northern areas on today's update, Matt, but plenty of time for twists and turns as we often say in winter!

As for their forecast for the West Midlands being cloudy around the coast, maybe they expect sea levels to rapidly rise overnight as a result of accelerated climate change?!  

 

I've only just noticed Don have you moved location good man?

Day 7 on GFS looks fab for many... That Low pressure feature is quite  away SE compared too the 6z run also. 

[Frosty.]

Ukmo 12h looking good, but not if you prefer cyclonic !

 

[Scorcher]

Seems bizarre to me that the concern yesterday was whether the high would move over the UK properly at all. Now all of sudden that isn't in doubt at all, but out of nowhere we get weather systems appearing to the north west that threaten to flatten the pattern just as it's heating up. Hopefully the models are overdoing that trend and will backtrack.

[Sweatyman]

Getting swept away by mid next week on GFS

Edited July 5, 2022 by Sweatyman

[Captain Shortwave]

Typical of the usual model drama, the GEM flips on the 12z.

 

   
 

The day 10 chart of course is beginning to tee up something significant.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Getting swept away by mid next week on GFS

And then the plume that sets up thereafter manages to miss the U.K. What a crud run!

[Frosty.]

The all important Ukmo 12z T+168 hours..pretty darn good innit! ️  

 

[Singularity]

In a way GFS & GEM have swapped places - classic! The hyper-flatten outcome does exist in the ensembles but only a small proportion. GFS 12z is toward the extreme end of that, too.

With UKM supporting the 12z GEM there’s still a strong vote for heatwave conditions to establish next week.

[January Snowstorm]

The 168hrs UKMO is excellent!!

Over now to ecm to see is the gfs just having a wobble....