Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Lukesluckybunch]

the UKMO will tell you another story,thats very good this morning

[Nigelapplewhit4]

29 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

the UKMO will tell you another story,thats very good this morning

gfs is a horror story 

[Cheshire Freeze]

34 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

the UKMO will tell you another story,thats very good this morning

The UKMO goes off on a different tangent with heights being sucked into Scandi and a big European trough forming (144-168hrs).

 

Confidence in the mid range has taken a step back this morning.

Edited July 6, 2022 by CreweCold

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

gfs is a horror story 

It's another progressive and flat solution that's for sure. Needs treating with scepticism and caution as the 12z op - which showed a similarly over-progressive nature - was not at all supported by its ensembles.

The UKMO 00z by comparison looks settled nationwide and very warm/hot, too.

So to answer your previous question... no it is not supported by the other models. Yesterday it wasn't even supported by its own set. It cannot be discounted of course, but currently it just looks like the usual over-aggressiveness from the GFS.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

It's another progressive and flat solution that's for sure. Needs treating with scepticism and caution as the 12z op - which showed a similarly over-progressive nature - was not at all supported by its ensembles.

The UKMO 00z by comparison looks settled nationwide and very warm/hot, too.

The UKMO isn’t that hot…at least not at the 850 level

[Nigelapplewhit4]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The UKMO isn’t that hot…at least not at the 850 level

The usual downgrades have started.....hopes of a sustained heatwave are disappearing fast according to the modelling.  my Confidence of 48 hours ago has gone and the confidence of heat for the UK in the models is ebbing away very quickly too.   30 degrees was forecast for Wrexham on the 13th July - this has now dropped to 21 and 27 on the 15th has dropped down to just 19. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Nigelapplewhit4

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

The usual downgrades have started.....hopes of a sustained heatwave are disappearing fast according to the modelling. Confidence is ebbing away! 

A bit hasty to be declaring things like that. Even with the UKMO D7 chart it’s easy to see how the Iberian LP and Atlantic troughing could engage/phase to bring a plume of hot air up across the UK.

All the output has done so far this morning is increase uncertainty.

Edited July 6, 2022 by CreweCold

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

The usual downgrades have started.....hopes of a sustained heatwave are disappearing fast according to the modelling. Confidence is ebbing away! 

Get a grip!  You're being premature when we've not yet seen the ECM or the GFS ensembles.

That UKMO chart has very warm 850s across the UK, built on several days of settled weather beforehand. It would comfortably translate to temperatures widely in the mid to high 20s, which is high enough to trigger heatwave thresholds if they were to be repeated over 3 or more days consecutively.

This talk of downgrades is ridiculous. 

[Nigelapplewhit4]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Get a grip!  You're being premature when we've not yet seen the ECM or the GFS ensembles.

That UKMO chart has very warm 850s across the UK, built on several days of settled weather beforehand. It would comfortably translate to temperatures widely in the mid to high 20s, which is high enough to trigger heatwave thresholds if they were to be repeated over 3 or more days consecutively.

This talk of downgrades is ridiculous. 

You can't deny the modelling! 

[saintkip]

Come on downgrades, no one needs mid 30’s In the UK. 

[Frosty.]

Ukmo 0z looks like an upgrade to me, stunning!  

Edited July 6, 2022 by jon snow

[Guest]

Just to further illustrate the isolated nature of the GFS operational this morning... here's the GEM 00z with no flattening of the pattern and a hot outlook for many away from the far north.

 

[Nigelapplewhit4]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Just to further illustrate the isolated nature of the GFS operational this morning... here's the GEM 00z with no flattening of the pattern and a hot outlook for many away from the far north.

 

Thanks for posting the GEM 00z - my hopes are being restored!. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

You can't deny the modelling! 

Apparently you can. What am I denying exactly? The GFS operational? I've said it cannot be discounted but correctly questioned its validity given how it isn't supported by other models (please see the GEM charts I have posted, too). Why are you placing the GFS under such high esteem? 

 

[philglossop]

With regards to the GFS- let’s see the ensembles to see where it sits. Given the output I’d say it’s gone the other way to the bottom to show the extreme. 

[Howie]

I really hope the gfs hasn't picked up a new signal 

[Nigelapplewhit4]

15 minutes ago, Howie said:

I really hope the gfs hasn't picked up a new signal 

I think it might be on to something in terms of signalling a lot more uncertainty - never a good thing when at just +6-8 day range. Lets see how it pans out. I do rely on the GFS and have for the last 16 years of model watching. Here are the 18Z GEFS ensembles for Cheshire:  operational is at the top of the different model runs which surprise me i thought it would be more in the mid range. op

Edited July 6, 2022 by Nigelapplewhit4

[mountain shadow]

ECM on its way out now, so we'll know if that GFS run is roque soon enough.

Everyone in the North West prays that it is.

A quick glance at the GFS ensemble members shows a wide range of options at t+144, with a number similar to the UK.

The GFS op is a bit of an outlier.

Edited July 6, 2022 by mountain shadow

[Nigelapplewhit4]

ECMWF charts are as follows: 

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Nigelapplewhit4

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

I think it might be on to something in terms of signalling a lot more uncertainty - never a good thing when at just +6-8 day range. Lets see how it pans out. I do rely on the GFS and have for the last 16 years of model watching. Here are the 18Z GEFS ensembles for Cheshire:  operational is at the top of the different model runs which surprise me i thought it would be more in the mid range. op

18z op was a hot one with a record breaking plume.

00z doesn’t even have any attempt at a plume.

[Guest]

The GFS Ops run was a pretty big outlier, majority of ensembles and mean bring multiple days of 30C plus to the south. 
 

[mountain shadow]

T144 ECM doesn't go with the GFS.

[Guest]

ECM shaping up more like the GEM and UKMO than the GFS, in terms of the angle of high pressure being broadly SW/NE rather than flatter.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

T144 ECM doesn't go with the GFS.

Infact very warm/hot instead!!

[Guest]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Infact very warm/hot instead!!

GFS op aside, which as Chris pointed out is looking like a major outlier for the same time period, the picture continues to look increasingly hot, breaching heatwave territory, especially the further south you are. A lot of very warm and settled summery weather to come.

ECM t168