Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Climate Man]

2 hours ago, jon snow said:

Just a quick mention about the GEM 0z mean..it’s pretty much a GEM !!  
Hopefully the 12z runs will be full of joy too!  

Not sure we should be full of joy, even if heat lovers. If this is a sign of the future we are in trouble. It's like on the BBC when there is a climate change item  in the news and then they go to a forecast of hot weather and presenters are over the moon. I still think it's unlikely to reach 40 deg but if it does I'm off to join Greta. 

[Frosty.]

Although the ICON 12z hasn’t completed yet, I like what I’m seeing so far, anyone agree.. ?
 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

56 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Met office now even mention the possibility of extreme heat in the latest 10 dayer. 

Seems to be an okay explanation of matters. The cooler option being a slow push southwards of the jet stream and a return to westerlies. The most likely scenario is that high pressure remains with temperatures likely to stay high. The last one with the possibly of extreme heat is the scenario where the low heights towards the Azores begins to interact with the northern arm of the jet and pushes northwards, advecting potentially unprecedented levels of heat towards the U.K. 

Most would take the most likely option at the moment, especially as this could end up with several days of mid twenties in the north and low thirties in the south.

ICON running out now, Monday and possibly Tuesday looking hot with temperatures reaching 30c+ in the south.

   

   
 

Midweek looks to be crunch time as to where this spell travels. Cooler, similar or something potentially historic. It looks like a cold front will push southwards on Wednesday, but upstream you can already see the next push of heights that will push the fronts back northward again.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 hours ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Looks like talk of a heatwave was wide of the mark - look at the 06z from the GFS coming out now! It might be a bit warmer than normal for those in the UK looking to live in the SE corner but look at the Northerly coming on Wednesday next week. Icelandic trough making its move south/south east and the Azores high retrogresses well into the Atlantic..  There is a slight attempt for the ridge to push back into the SW approaches. An extremely powerful jet blasts across Northern Europe next week.  

Mate that's a very poor attempt at what the weather may bring! Your basing your forecast on what each and every operational run suggests! That's not really the way to compile a forecast.

Do you understand what meets Heatwave criteria? 3 straight days of 25C

I've just checked the met update and it states HOT at times for central Southern England! Its the North that misses out! But if the GFS 6z does not state it....it can't be true!!

[Methuselah]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Mate that's a very poor attempt at what the weather may bring! Your basing your forecast on what each and every operational run suggests! That's not really the way to compile a forecast.

Do you understand what meets Heatwave criteria? 3 straight days of 25C

I've just checked the met update and it states HOT at times for central Southern England! Its the North that misses out! But if the GFS 6z does not state it....it can't be true!!

I just had a look at the BBC app for NR34: it looks like we'll be seeing something like 10 straight days of temps at or above 24C. Quite impressive for somewhere so close to the East Coast?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I just had a look at the BBC app for NR34: it looks like we'll be seeing something like 10 straight days of temps at or above 24C. Quite impressive for somewhere so close to the East Coast?

Pete I'm sure there are some that think an Heatwave means 30+ countrywide for several weeks

I still think its looking very favourable for areas away from the you know where locations....yes I'm getting sick of saying the NW...for god sake weather gods...give them a break

[Don]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

P29 goes for 44C

 

Cambridge area looks a little on the warm side.  Just a mere 39 or 40C for me! 

[Frosty.]

I think I was a bit premature in praising the ICON 12z… …well, Im only human!  

[A Face like Thunder]

I hope the NHS will be given plenty of warning about prolonged heat and/or record temperatures and will be able to cope, given the factors affecting their workload at the moment. August 2003 comes to mind.

[Mapantz]

37 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Do you understand what meets Heatwave criteria? 3 straight days of 25C

Not strictly true. 

The threshold for Greater London and the Home counties  is 28°C

27°C for counties surrounding that area, and 26°C for counties further afield.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Not strictly true. 

The threshold for Greater London and the Home counties  is 28°C

27°C for counties surrounding that area, and 26°C for counties further afield.

here in Edmonton the threshold is 29c ...Calgary its 30c

[mountain shadow]

 

UKMO looking good at Day 5.

[MattStoke]

GFS 12z looking better so far. Everything further north.

[mountain shadow]

UKMO looking toasty at Day 6 too.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not strictly true. 

The threshold for Greater London and the Home counties  is 28°C

27°C for counties surrounding that area, and 26°C for counties further afield.

In Glasgow it’s 17c. 19c is our official melting point.

[Climate Man]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS 12z looking better so far. Everything further north.

Define better 

[ITSY]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

P29 goes for 44C

 

We've got used to some mind-bending charts but the idea that Cambridge would ever be modelled at 44C is insane.

[SizzlingHeat]

7 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Define better 

At least the next 7 days of temps between mid twenties and low thirties. How much better do you want lol? 

[sheikhy]

Ukmo looking fantastic and gfs now backtracking as usual!brilliant start to the 12zs!!!

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Ukmo looking fantastic and gfs now backtracking as usual!brilliant start to the 12zs!!!

+20 850hpa hitting South Coast by 222hr

[SizzlingHeat]

Just had a look at the charts for the first time since the beginning of June. Been too busy to be looking all the time unfortunately. However, WOW look at these charts for the next week and beyond. Absolutely stunning. Lots of sunshine and high temperatures. Looking fantastic. I only came on because the radio said it was getting much warmer but what a treat. Last time I looked there wasnt even average temps for a couple of weeks with low pressure dominating. What happened? Cant wait for some sunshine and warmth

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

+20 850hpa hitting South Coast by 222hr

Its just brilliant!from tomorrow large parts of england hit mid to hight twenties for the next week at least!!gona feel really humid as well!!

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS has a high of 30c on Monday and 33c on Tuesday. This comes off the back of a number of warm or very warm days. Not bad at all. There is still a cold front that pushes south midweek, but this is weak and high pressure still looks to be in control. 
The UKMO is sunny for all pretty much to day 6. Very warm for all and hot for the south.

[MattStoke]

Satan’s finger


 

Edited July 6, 2022 by MattStoke

[Guest]

Another 40C gfs Ops run…..