Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[JayAlmeida]

Bit of a downgrade for next wed-fri on the GEM. 850hp uppers looking much lower as the hot air is pushed back to the continent. 2m temps in Low twenties from Wednesday onwards in my neck of the woods and they dont even hit 30 in the balmy southeast. 

Hopefully not evidence of a trend developing.

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Bit of a downgrade for next wed-fri on the GEM. 850hp uppers looking much lower as the hot air is pushed back to the continent. 2m temps in Low twenties from Wednesday onwards in my neck of the woods and it they dont even hit 30 in the balmy southeast. 

Hopefully not evidence of a trend developing.

 

I think anything after the weekend can change for good or bad if your an hot weather fan

[Climate Man]

24 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

At least the next 7 days of temps between mid twenties and low thirties. How much better do you want lol? 

I don't lol. It's 7 days mid 30s to low 40s I'm concerned about. Not sure I want "better" Anyway,will be what it will be and I always say I like extremes 

[minus10]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Satan’s finger


 

I had to double take on this as i thought it was an ens...its the gfs op...37 to 39 ..insane that this level of temp is even being shown...

[mb018538]

Another furnace run chart has appeared. Got to say this has a realistic chance now surely. It’s not just a one run wonder, this is multiple runs over multiple days. Must be something picking up to keep churning these out.

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, minus10 said:

I had to double take on this as i thought it was an ens...its the gfs op...37 to 39 ..insane that this level of temp is even being shown...

It has 40’C across North Kent on the high resolution view. A model that is normally a few degrees too low.

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12z @ T+168 hours looks very warm pretty much nationwide… quite a rare event!

 

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by jon snow

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It has 40’C across North Kent on the high resolution view. A model that is normally a few degrees too low.

 

Staggering. It really is.

[JayAlmeida]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

 

Staggering. It really is.

38c in Chester on that one  

[mb018538]

If it’s going to happen, then the next 10 days is about as ideal as you could get in setting it up. Hot and dry leading up, very dry soil in the south of the UK and Europe, and in the heatwave sweet spot for the UK (roughly mid July to early August). Just need the cards to fall in the right order.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, ITSY said:

We've got used to some mind-bending charts but the idea that Cambridge would ever be modelled at 44C is insane.

Hottest ensemble in history.

I guess we're seeing the limits of scientific possibility for the UK.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I often wonder if models were showing this kind of flip flopping right before the heat waves of July and Aug 2003..
I cant say that every model and every run along with every ensemble member was showing severe heat right out from 10 days earlier and counting it right down from T300 to T0, the same in July 2006 and 13..

It was also very hot and dry in europe in 2003 something already we're seeing so surely with all the weeks left of summer we should tap into at some point

[MattStoke]

Just now, 38.7°C said:

I often wonder if models were showing this kind of flip flopping right before the heat waves of July and Aug 2003..
I cant say that every model and every run along with every ensemble member was showing severe heat right out from 10 days earlier and counting it right down from T300 to T0, the same in July 2006 and 13..

It was also very hot and dry in europe in 2003 something already we're seeing so surely with all the weeks left of summer we should tap into at some point

Doesn’t seem to take as much to take as much to get that level of heat anymore. We used to need days of heat building. Now it can happen almost instantaneously (relatively speaking).

[TonyH]

1 hour ago, Climate Man said:

Define better 

Not 40c!

[Captain Shortwave]

The control backs the operational in getting the 20c isotherm into the U.K. At day 10. There is a sizeable cluster that also do this, or are either a day later or the plume is slightly less intense. Given the ECM was also in this ballpark then we have a potential landing date for something noteworthy. Of course it will require everything to fall into place.

It is going to worth keeping an eye further south. The GFS operational  has highs of 46/47c widely for a couple of days next week. Getting close  again to country records again.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

It has been interesting watching these outrageous runs keep appearing over the last few days.  It seems there are two different aspects to this evolution, one well predicted by the models from some days out - the warm settled spell, and the other with massive uncertainty, the potential mega-hot plume, which is still at day 10+.  

In the south, I’ve had confidence in a warm sunny settled spell developing and lasting in the south for some days now. Yes, there is some inter-run variability, but the basic pattern is well forecast, I think.  I’m not claiming that for further northwest where there is considerably more uncertainty.

Then, in the period day 10+, the earliest seems to be about T240, there is this hot plume event showing on enough model runs that it needs to be taken seriously, but as such events are massively uncertain to hit the UK with a direct hit or close, we are in then position where it could be another week before we can have any kind of certainty on that - we might have a good idea at 6 days out but still not be sure.  

I’ve never seen 40C on any run for the UK on the main models before this potential plume came into the outer reaches of the GFS and ensembles runs.  (The NAVGEM might have thrown one or two up in the past!).  So it will be fascinating to see what develops, but I don’t think we are going to be able to call it for a good few days yet….we will see…

Edited July 6, 2022 by Mike Poole

[legion_quest]

I have been a lurker on these forums and the site for a good few years now, but on seeing these charts I just had to join in order to say how absolutely shocking those temperature runs look. 40+ degree heat, should it actually come, is going to cause utter chaos. 

It's genuinely scary. We're just not infostructurally built for it. 

If this becomes a new norm, we're going to have to invest heavily and seriously in air con, making things even worse thanks to energy use pumping global warming and thus, those temperatures! 

[Frosty.]

Hey guys, this is from the 0z but the JMA ended well don’t you think?…roll on 17th July!   

Edited July 6, 2022 by jon snow

[Man With Beard]

Regardless of the super-heatwave potential, we're now very well set for heatwave conditions to start as early as this Sunday, 30C possible by then I feel. The only question then is how long it will last, to which there is no answer yet.

[MattStoke]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Regardless of the super-heatwave potential, we're now very well set for heatwave conditions to start as early as this Sunday, 30C possible by then I feel. The only question then is how long it will last, to which there is no answer yet.

Hopefully until 31st October and then at midnight a cold front sweeps in and brings 6 months of blizzards. Or is that a bit optimistic?

[sheikhy]

Ecm loooks inbetween again at 144 hours!think ukmo being too optimistic here!!!

[Notty]

I’m in Zante and it is 32c in the shade now, on an island, in the breeze. It has been 36 each day for the last week. France and Spain are roasting too. It has been HOT here and I like the heat but it is difficult to live in without pools, sea and air con. God help the UK if any of those outrageous model runs of 40c materialise. 

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm loooks inbetween again at 144 hours!think ukmo being too optimistic here!!!

Nothing wrong with it buddy, 30c Monday and 32c on Tuesday  

[Captain Shortwave]

This will do for Wednesday;

 

Yes the temperatures will drop a little bit as there is a weak cold front straddling the country. But that is hopefully far enough north to punt the warmth back northwards again later on.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Nothing wrong with it buddy, 30c Monday and 32c on Tuesday  

Try 16C in the North West buddy. We can't get a break from the eternal Autumn.