Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. Decent support there.

When the mean is above 15c….you know something is afoot. Odd to see so much support so far out!

[Howie]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. Decent support there.

When I first saw this I assumed the operational was an out liar but then I realised the mean also shoots up to. Crazy chart 

[damianslaw]

Need a bit of a measured head in here at present, given the continuation of super hot charts being shown at the 10 day + range, note 10 days, not 3, 4 or even 5 and until they come into the 5 day time range, it is wrong to say they are likely to verify. 

We need to continue to keep an eye on the jetstream - I'm not pouring cold water on the chance of a plume, but there is a signal for it to fire up somewhat into next week and move into northern parts, the models for a week's time show more of a westerly, then all eyes on the shallow trough feature / cut off low to the SW this could undergo development quite quickly and phase with the jestream, any plume will be fleeting and shunted further eastwards... please keep an eye on short term developments over the days ahead and not get hung on these 10 day plus days.

Alas a very warm dry outlook for many, locally hot into the 30s for far SE into next week. The heat in the reliable will not be nationwide.

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

There’s a lot of support from the GEFS 12z for a HOT plumey mid July!!..and plenty of great weather before then too!! ⛈  

 

[TomIOW]

This is the ECM 12z ensemble for my part of the world in Cowes on the Isle of Wight. I have been following the charts for around 20 years (since the BBC forum days but I lurk more than post) and it is VERY uncommon to see so much agreement so far out of sustained heat at the height of summer. Yes there are less hot members but there is an undeniable trend to a potentially very hot plume towards the end of the forecast period.

Edited July 6, 2022 by TomIOW

[clark3r]

I’m in turkey at the moment and it is balmy at coming up to midnight, I am due home late 16th July, it’s crazy to think it’s possibly going to be hotter back home when I return, need few more days of runs yet, I really think the all time record may go and we may hit 40 somewhere, still long way to go 

[Snowy L]

Well if we had a day 11 ECM that would be the record gone surely. 20C line already in the southwest on day 10 and seemingly nothing to stop it surging north on day 11. Models are increasingly showing a smooth transition from one high pressure (the one that will move over us from this weekend to Tuesday) to the next high pressure after that. If support for that gets shored up then the record going is becoming a very realistic possibility.

[SqueakheartLW]

This heat spike had been picked up for quite some time now on the GFS Extended. A few weeks ago there was this bump up in the 850hpa ensemble mean around mid July and it has really sustained it since then and is now showing up on all of the mid range models too.

Yesterday's GFS 18z                               Today's GFS 00z                                      Today's GFS 06z

This just gets ever more bonkers, it really does. The 18z has a very hot run peaking at 38.1C on 18th July. Then both the 00z and 06z just take things to a new level with the first ever 40+C ensemble members for Scunthorpe with a 40.1C and 40C exactly on the 15th and 17th respectively.

GEM and ECM on the other hand were tame in comparison on both 00z and 12z, only just scraping 35C.

[Bradley in Kent]

Yes a surprising amount of agreement, but let's face it that means nothing at day 8+. 

We're looking at a decent few days which I'm loving, but for a true hot spell I'm mindful about a pool of relatively cold uppers over Hudson and East Canada tomorrow and Friday. This looks set to create disturbances and give some energy to jetstream. Just like winter, a stronger jetstream ruins anything seasonal. 

All I'm saying, there's still a good chance this'll go wrong from a heat lovers POV. 

By the weekend we'll have a good idea what's going on and how our beloved HP will fare as lows moved around. Will lows keep HP in perfect shape whist pumping that 20c line our way? Or will they just erode the top putting the UK back I'm square one? 

[Singularity]

5 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Yes a surprising amount of agreement, but let's face it that means nothing at day 8+. 

It means something. Ensembles are all about tweaking conditions and seeing what effect that has, so when a large number end up in a similar place 8-10 days from now, it indicates that there’s a lot of ‘wiggle room’ around the consensus before the end result differs much.

This is especially important when dealing with something usually as finely balanced as a ‘heat plume’ event.

There’s an abnormally high probability of a very high temperature event affecting southern UK sometime Fri-Sun. Of course it may still not come about but it’s now irresponsible to dismiss the signal being given.

I’m hoping we can avoid an extremely hot outcome but, over the past few days, have become increasingly concerned that we might not.

[chapmanslade]

20 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It means something. Ensembles are all about tweaking conditions and seeing what effect that has, so when a large number end up in a similar place 8-10 days from now, it indicates that there’s a lot of ‘wiggle room’ around the consensus before the end result differs much.

This is especially important when dealing with something usually as finely balanced as a ‘heat plume’ event.

There’s an abnormally high probability of a very high temperature event affecting southern UK sometime Fri-Sun. Of course it may still not come about but it’s now irresponsible to dismiss the signal being given.

I’m hoping we can avoid an extremely hot outcome but, over the past few days, have become increasingly concerned that we might not.

Completely agree. This is not a one run wonder and has been there in one form or another for the last 3 or 4 days, just like the last hot spell in June. Yes the extent of the plume and the level of het vary from run to run but the basic setup is always there.

[January Snowstorm]

Worth noting that the gfs was the first to pick up on a disturbance running close to the Northwest mid next week. Now the rest have followed. The high while inducing warm/hot air is yet to take a proper command of the weather. Then again location is everything and my angle is Southern Ireland which is always closer to any breakdown!

 

[JayAlmeida]

Much more widespread heat for early next week on the GFS 18z. Could be an outlier but i would be much happier with this kind of outcome.

Edited July 6, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Allseasons-Si]

Just got in and OMG

That's a cracking ECM day ten op and mean...

 

EPS for day ten also

CPC/NOAA,...

Things are looking up for more prolonged summer weather to continue for maybe longer than first thought,yes there has been a few gfs runs that blow the HP cell away to the SE into mainland Europe but looking at both the gfs op/control towards day ten there is another surge of heat ahead of the Iberian low that interacts with the jet pushing it NE towards the UK,this in turn would bring more in the way unsettled weather and perhaps thundery,the ECM is a little slower at breaking the fine weather down from the SW but will have more of a plume to it and possibly a breakdown after day ten

right goes to check out the rest of this thread and to view the latest from the 18z gfs

C U in a bit

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Man With Beard]

What's also interesting me about this plume build up is that I sense the models are showing us what is scientifically possible. It's a near perfect set-up for heat: mid-July, a long stable build up of heat to our south, and a plume to fan it up to us. 

I can't imagine there could possibly be a hotter ensemble than this ECM one showing 42C near Cambridge, bearing in mind raw temps are usually 2C too low in a plume:

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Monday looking more hot nationwide with more heat more widespread and this is more within the reliable 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z largely culls the hot spell for most by Wednesday bar a brief attempt to warm the south.

[Iceman2606]

That's quite a flip on the ensembles from this evening's GFS 18z.

[CoxR]

Huge downgrade from the GFS 18z op and ensemble

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

That's quite a flip on the ensembles from this evening's GFS 18z.

Probably because I just spent £40 on an oscillating cooling fan and advised all my family to do the same.

It’s equivalent to the jinx in winter

[Mark wheeler]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Probably because I just spent £40 on an oscillating cooling fan and advised all my family to do the same.

It’s equivalent to the jinx in winter

I have done the same this evening.

lets see what tomorrow brings.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

I have done the same this evening.

lets see what tomorrow brings.

Best to do it before they all sell out

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON looks amazing this morning out to early next week,big upgrade hot conditions!

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ICON looks amazing this morning out to early next week,big upgrade hot conditions!

It's only heading one way at 180hrs- exceptional heat. Probably arriving 48 hours after this chart...so the Saturday.

People should be concerned by all of this. Not quite sure why people are lauding this potential for dangerous heat.

The only positive for me is that we are starting to see hints of low heights lifting out of Greenland...meaning the hottest of the weather may only last a day or two.

Edited July 7, 2022 by CreweCold

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's only heading one way at 180hrs- exceptional heat. Probably arriving 48 hours after this chart...so the Saturday.

People should be concerned by all of this. Not quite sure why people are lauding this potential for dangerous heat.

why could it potentially be very hot? crewe