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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

Cheshire Freeze
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Paul
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Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Pretty darn good 12z gfs and ukmo for my area at least lol!!hot till the end of next week!!currently 25 degrees with a swarm of flying ants!!

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Met office have already picked up on the rain - check the forecast for Glasgow for next Tuesday - rain.

Have you moved to Glasgow? Tuesday looks fantastic for England in any case.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

GFS just keeps the heat coming after a thundery breakdown on the 15/16th. Sunday still in the high 20s+ widely. Tropical stuff later next week on this one!

image.thumb.png.566acb6734ec26efe701f86b4024d1f4.png image.thumb.png.ab2ef0f47f76c8b37e47114e55972f39.png image.thumb.png.f64990764b029a9290c4954d12f86f87.png

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Cambrian Veteran

Cambrian

Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
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Posted

12z GFS operational run - day 4 perhaps the best day in the reliable timeframe for countrywide warmth for the UK and Ireland, above 20 degrees virtually everywhere by mid-afternoon, 20-24 degrees widely for the north of England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales, 31 degrees in London. Summer everywhere!

B43D5B75-C6AD-48BD-8FC9-7AFF48D32B0B.thumb.png.dbe7eeee9d6c622ffedca7bcbe7f89e2.png 13B58BAC-B38A-43FD-A139-3B081F94F3F9.thumb.png.0860de6e0a4432c1d43518822e3e6568.png 8C8172B0-6900-4F48-BD8C-C292B3B87EB8.thumb.jpeg.42062eedb91370e2f43a862b8ac7d906.jpeg

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Just taking 1 suite of 1 run ?‍♂️ ens @ gfs notes any incursion of any cooler blip.. will be a short affair indeed... but imo that won’t even happen!, And there are such extremities the run2 run diagnostics will be likely dummy sucking atm- The heat transfer possibilities for the uk ( more likely mid / southern Britain... Are quite simply staggering... I’d almost lay my house on records being shattered nxt 10 days...heatwave button well and truly pressed!!!

FD10704D-18DF-4A16-99B7-4221C49CE1B7.png

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I'll spend the day sitting under a cold shower. A few waterproof books might come in handy?!

Haven't you heard there's a water shortage??!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

GFS 12Z is amazing, no real breakdown until about the 20th. 30C possible everyday from the 11th-19th, couple of shouts at mid 30's, very pleasant. 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z is amazing, no real breakdown until about the 20th. 30C possible everyday from the 11th-19th, couple of shouts at mid 30's, very pleasant. 

Think your town will be rather busy come next weekend!  Heatwave in the bag, just finer details to firm up now?

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Pretty significant upgrade on this evenings gfs run!! Making much less of the midweek blip and re building heat...

Living through these type of events a thundery biscay low developing would be a common route!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS control run is going for The Full Monty tonight:

 

gens-0-0-228.png

A mild night for the south.....

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

The GFS Ops was a pretty big outlier keeping it warm Thurs/Fri but then the majority of ensembles bring back the heat rapidly. Either hot all the way, or Hot then a brief cool down before turning hot again. 

14 minutes ago, Don said:

Think your town will be rather busy come next weekend!  Heatwave in the bag, just finer details to firm up now?

Yup rammed, but I have to go to Bognor, would rather stay at home get a taxi to the beach and watch everyone fight over the sand while I sit in a bar  

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

Plume or no plume ... that's just a glorious summer chart for next Thursday. Sunny, settled, calm, low 20s north, high 20s south.

ECM1-168.thumb.gif.49d05e808d7a3be2103659753ff9c059.gif

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Portsmouth Sun Contributor

Portsmouth Sun

Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Plume or no plume ... that's just a glorious summer chart for next Thursday. Sunny, settled, calm, low 20s north, high 20s south.

ECM1-168.thumb.gif.49d05e808d7a3be2103659753ff9c059.gif

No extreme heat, just normal warm summer weather. As much as I would like somewhere to hit 40c, just to get the elephant out the room I cannot see it happening, models lead many people up the garden, path time and time again. I'm more than happy to eat my words though, but it just looks like a pleasant spell of weather for the south of the UK next week. 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Plume or no plume ... that's just a glorious summer chart for next Thursday. Sunny, settled, calm, low 20s north, high 20s south.

ECM1-168.thumb.gif.49d05e808d7a3be2103659753ff9c059.gif

Hmm weird flat chart at 168 and 192 hours!!not sure what to make of the ecm!!!are the temps still quite hot between 144 and 192 hours!!?

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hmm weird flat chart at 168 and 192 hours!!not sure what to make of the ecm!!!are the temps still quite hot between 144 and 192 hours!!?

Pretty likely to be yes. As @Man With Beard says, you'd still be looking at mid to high 20s further south on Thursday and perhaps a degree or two higher by Friday. Very pleasant.

That Iberian low is then starting to inch those hotter uppers north at t+192...

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

Glorious summer weather on offer from the ECM   then towards the end of the run. Seriously hot temps on the brink of southern England.  I've seen worse summer charts 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
Just now, weirpig said:

Glorious summer weather on offer from the ECM   then towards the end of the run. Seriously hot temps on the brink of southern England.  I've seen worse summer charts 

image.thumb.png.cd313c6563fec1fbd20ae8d1eadc468d.png

Ready for another day 10 spectacular from the ECM?

Just now, Staffmoorlands said:

ECM 120-168hrs introduces cloud and cooler conditions for the North and west from Tuesday.

I think we have seen the end of posts suggesting 35c+ now

Bold to call that when the period most likely to achieve such temperatures remains in FI (next weekend).

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Stav Apprentice

Stav

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or dry, warm and breezy.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted
12 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

No extreme heat, just normal warm summer weather. As much as I would like somewhere to hit 40c, just to get the elephant out the room I cannot see it happening, models lead many people up the garden, path time and time again. I'm more than happy to eat my words though, but it just looks like a pleasant spell of weather for the south of the UK next week. 

I think I speak for many, I would not like that, thank you.

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
5 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

ECM 120-168hrs introduces cloud and cooler conditions for the North and west from Tuesday.

I think we have seen the end of posts suggesting 35c+ now

I think we're a long way off seeing the end of them just yet...

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

And once again at day 10 serious heat incoming!!we need to see it in inch closer which it just aint doing!!!before that though we gona see very warm temps regardless!friday to monday looking very warm!!

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And once again at day 10 serious heat incoming!!we need to see it in inch closer which it just aint doing!!!before that though we gona see very warm temps regardless!friday to monday looking very warm!!

That is quite the ending to ECM! With a large LP setting up west of Ireland (just where I like to see one in this set-up), it could lead to a textbook and dramatic thundery breakdown, too

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