Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Captain Shortwave]

Hot Wednesday is back on the 06z

very knife edge, but if the heat can remain in the south then the reward will be a hotter day than Tuesday as the heat will be able to build in more.

[northwestsnow]

LOL 30 degrees at 9am across the SE next wednesday ..

[A Face like Thunder]

26 minutes ago, slater said:

And the week before that and before that!!, feel sorry for the NW who have had an awful summer so far

I'm not complaining although my lawns are! 

[sheikhy]

Much better gfs 06z!!!!hot and sunnny all week next week and drier!!

[JayAlmeida]

44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z looks hot across much of the country Sunday  Monday and Tuesday 

 

Tuesday is looking very warm nationwide but there is still some uncertainty. Wednesday is even more uncertain which is bizarre considering both are within the 5 day range now.

The GFS keeps wanting 30-31c somewhere in the NW of England on Tuesday before dropping back down to 26-28c on the next run.

Its currently 4-3 to the 30c option out of the past 7 GFS runs.

Edited July 8, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[mountain shadow]

Extended GFS 6z was a horror show, particularly for the North West where Summer has yet to make a real appearance. 

[ChannelThunder]

6z seems to indicate the midweek cold front splits the high too much for it to ever get back into the right shape to allow the high 30s next weekend. Temperature charts for that time are now much more subdued for that time although still technically pretty hot for (you guessed it) the South.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

6z looks hot across much of the country Sunday  Monday and Tuesday 

 

Yes the GFS has actually gone hotter for Tuesday for the Manchester area. What amazes me is how poor the apps/website forecasts are. On the BBC website they've actually dropped the max to 24C for Tuesday- I see no reason why to be honest. Wednesday has been dropped to 19C which seems too severe to me.

The apps and websites always seem so slow to catch up and often forecast the temperatures way too low a few days out- before gradually increasing the temperatures as you get closer to the day in question.

[Derecho]

Surprised by the amount of melodrama in here today. EC ensembles are just as good as yesterday's 12z with the following weekend up to around the 18th still just as hot on the ensemble mean and plenty of members going for early-mid 30s for Manchester. The amount of ens going for high 30s over London is notable at the 10 day range. 

Why focus on the extended GFS ens when mid-range is so uncertain? They are a horror show, if uncertainty is your only measure. 

Poor for Glasgow maybe but if you want these hot spells so much, move further south. 

[Scorcher]

45 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Tuesday is looking very warm nationwide but there is still some uncertainty

I'm not sure what the uncertainty is though- looks hot to me across England from around Preston southwards. The BBC have dropped the forecast temperature to 24C here for Tuesday but that makes no sense to me looking at these charts- I'd expect that to go up again.

 

 

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Poor for Glasgow maybe but if you want these hot spells so much, move further south. 

Exactly, they were spoilt last year but unfortunately Scotland and Northern Ireland rarely get hot conditions even in summer. Not sure why this is a surprise to some.

[Paul]

Just wanted to share a couple of images from the 00z ecm hires ensembles. Showing a peak next week of 38.5c, but a spread of 20c! Control was down at the cooler end of the scale during the latter part of the run. 

 

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the GEM 0z, although the heat subsides for a time across the s / se after midweek, it returns with a vengeance as is indicated by the mean and these perturbations…so there could be an encore performance following the briefest cool down which for the south would be barely noticeable whereas the heat that follows could be very intense! ..in any case, there’s some cracking weather guaranteed within the reliable timeframe away from the far N / NW!……ps..I particularly like P20!…..   

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by jon snow

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Running through the ECM ensembles, almost all bring a significant plume to the U.K. still after the cooler blip mid next week. A few of them record challenging if not record breaking.

Still needs watching.

 

6 minutes ago, Paul said:

Just wanted to share a couple of images from the 00z ecm hires ensembles. Showing a peak next week of 38.5c, but a spread of 20c! Control was down at the cooler end of the scale during the latter part of the run. 

 

the eps ‘out of control’ run is v aggressive with cut off low escaping ne towards us and brings a sharp plume with max 39c on the Monday 

 

42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Extended GFS 6z was a horror show, particularly for the North West where Summer has yet to make a real appearance. 

That the built in school holiday start date bias …………

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Just looking at the GEM 0z, although the heat subsides for a time across the s / se after midweek, it returns with a vengeance as is indicated by the mean and these perturbations…so there could be an encore performance following the briefest cool down which for the south would be barely noticeable whereas the heat that follows could be very intense! ..in any case, there’s some cracking weather guaranteed within the reliable timeframe away from the far N / NW!……ps..I particularly like P20!…..   

 

That gem run illustrates something I mentioned a week or so back where I mused that it was feasible that the summer euro heights could lift themselves north and encompass the s half of England.  With the airmass off the Atlantic on that run and uppers in the low twenties but T2M in the high twenties it would feel pretty dreadful re humidity 

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Yes the GFS has actually gone hotter for Tuesday for the Manchester area. What amazes me is how poor the apps/website forecasts are. On the BBC website they've actually dropped the max to 24C for Tuesday- I see no reason why to be honest. Wednesday has been dropped to 19C which seems too severe to me.

The apps and websites always seem so slow to catch up and often forecast the temperatures way too low a few days out- before gradually increasing the temperatures as you get closer to the day in question.

BBC is really underestimating maxima for Manchester on Tuesday if the GFS is to be believed. You guys are usually a degree or two warmer than North Liverpool and the same as South Liverpool/Liverpool Airport.

The GFS 12z will probably be 26c

[Scorcher]

49 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

BBC is really underestimating maxima for Manchester on Tuesday if the GFS is to be believed. You guys are usually a degree or two warmer than North Liverpool and the same as South Liverpool/Liverpool Airport.

The GFS 12z will probably be 26c

True, they've also been slow to forecast Monday as being properly hot- only just gone up to 28C on the website. The Met Office are finally catching on as well.

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

That gem run illustrates something I mentioned a week or so back where I mused that it was feasible that the summer euro heights could lift themselves north and encompass the s half of England.  With the airmass off the Atlantic on that run and uppers in the low twenties but T2M in the high twenties it would feel pretty dreadful re humidity 

Yeah thats something that has shifted in recent runs. The actual numbers going for crazxy high 850hpa has been increasing BUT the airmass has shifted from the orginal SSE (which would have brought high 30s/low 40s in such a hot airmass) towards a more SSW/SW w3ith probably alot more cloud cover  and a quicker breakdown from the west not allowing the real hot stuff to establish.

I suspect the GFS is falling for its normal flaw of breaking down heights too rapidly and trying to flatten the flow and will probably readjust the set-up towards a more HP driven set-up. I'm sure its probably got the right pattern idea through the last 1/3rd of July but its being 3-5 days too fast with it, as per usual with the GFS.

[mhielte]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Yes the GFS has actually gone hotter for Tuesday for the Manchester area. What amazes me is how poor the apps/website forecasts are. On the BBC website they've actually dropped the max to 24C for Tuesday- I see no reason why to be honest. Wednesday has been dropped to 19C which seems too severe to me.

The apps and websites always seem so slow to catch up and often forecast the temperatures way too low a few days out- before gradually increasing the temperatures as you get closer to the day in question.

I find the app forecasts, particularly on the Met Office site, very slow to catch up to the modelling. We've known this weekend/start of next week was going to be hot for some time now but it only updated to 26-28C a day or two ago on the site for Sheffield.

[Wimbledon88]

Met Office going for a fairly standard very warm week here in the capital. Far from exceptional. As expected. 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Met Office going for a fairly standard very warm week here in the capital. Far from exceptional. As expected. 

Not exceptional but reaching heatwave threshold levels. Can add a few degrees to those values for the hottest spots.

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Met Office going for a fairly standard very warm week here in the capital. Far from exceptional. As expected. 

Well that’s preferable for many, very 2013esque.

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Met Office going for a fairly standard very warm week here in the capital. Far from exceptional. As expected. 

The UKV from which this is based forms a slight inland flow for the SE which means the warmest temps end up further north (towards the Wash around 32c) whilst the onflow slightly pulls the temps down for the SE somewhat compared to what other models show.

If that flow doesn't form as per the UKV then the temps shown will be easily 2-3c too low, perhaps even more. ICON looks similar to be fair.

Edited July 8, 2022 by kold weather

[mhielte]

4 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Met Office going for a fairly standard very warm week here in the capital. Far from exceptional. As expected. 

They will subtly alter each day, but it does look hot with the heatwave threshold being met there even going by the often conservative app forecast. 

I would say it is not standard to get a heatwave given the definition. I agree, it is not exceptional heat, but then the charts that have shown exceptional heat don't fall into the app's range yet anyway.

I do believe you know this though, and are fishing.

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not exceptional but reaching heatwave threshold levels. Can add a few degrees to those values for the hottest spots.

It just goes to show how much our climate has warmed these past 50 years -- 1975 was considered exceptional at the time when 90F was recorded two days in a row, instead of once in three years! 1976 was of course an exception among exceptions!

It's also worth noting that next week hasn't happened yet!

Edited July 8, 2022 by Ed Stone

[kold weather]

Just looking through the ensembles and man what a tough forecast to make, they really are all over the place past mid week. Some keep a real Atlantic driven flow and the heat blows away ENE into central Europe, resulting in perhaps slightly below average temps for the time of year.

Others as we know bring the upper low northwards which introduces very hot airflow, though to what extent the surface temps warm up depends on just how cloud laden such a flow could be, especially if the LP is more developed.

One trend that might auger towards the first option is the fact the models have been slowly trending weaker with the high pressure aloft, if that trend continues into the latter part of this pattern wouldn't be hard to imagine the heat never makes it. With that being said very much uncertain right now.

If I had to stick my neck out, I'd guess the north ends up with a more atlantic driven flow and much cooler, whilst the heat will creep far enough north to reach at least the far south for a 1-2 day period resulting in 35c somewhere next weekend before they too join a more atlantic driven pattern.