Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Weather26]

Seems ECM is having none of it, re the so called heat plume Next weekend-i thought a plume meant thunderstorms or maybe i'm in cloud cuckoo land! 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Seems ECM is having none of it, re the so called heat plume Next weekend-i thought a plume meant thunderstorms or maybe i'm in cloud cuckoo land! 

The plume does make it to southern UK by t+216 hours.

The ECM ensembles are also looking hot for that period. Thunderstorm risk will never be determined at that range.

Still a lot to be resolved of course, but I respectfully disagree with your 'having none of it' assessment for the reasons above.

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Seems ECM is having none of it, re the so called heat plume Next weekend-i thought a plume meant thunderstorms or maybe i'm in cloud cuckoo land! 

Plume is just sharp advection of a relatively warm airmass in a certain direction (south to north for the U.K.) due to low pressure which spins anti-clockwise against high pressure that spins clockwise so it works like a cog. It’s when moisture and instability are involved, often aided by frontal systems associated with the area of low pressure that we get storms breaking out but that doesn’t always happen.

Edited July 8, 2022 by MattStoke

[Wold Topper]

24 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Seems ECM is having none of it, re the so called heat plume Next weekend-i thought a plume meant thunderstorms or maybe i'm in cloud cuckoo land! 

Yep!

[Singularity]

After perusing the 12z EPS the main question I’m left with is: Is the deterministic run (ECM) over-complicating things with too many LP systems in the Atlantic, or is it spotting important details?

Its the presence of so many systems alongside the west of Iberia low still being taken further west for a time (before lifting north) that leads to the ‘conflicted’ look for next weekend.

[tight isobar]

34 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Seems ECM is having none of it, re the so called heat plume Next weekend-i thought a plume meant thunderstorms or maybe i'm in cloud cuckoo land! 

Buddy- thunder storms @ cape value are harder to nail than snow @ range.. it’s always an evolution of construction! There will inevitably be a breakdown- or atmospheric response.. in the meantime, I’d keep my eyes on the opening heat process..

[tight isobar]

Here’s the base/ note point.. the 18z gfs op- raw.. with the 12 z ecm ens on the bay- biscay margins. Highlights of Iberian interruption feature.. And how it may play on heat allows of a maritime flow into the uk!!

[sheikhy]

Another hot one for wednesday on gfs18z !!

[kold weather]

ICON 18z now stays hot in the SE for Wednesday as well, 31c in London. So there is a definate trend towards the hot air staying a little longer than was orginally expected by the models.

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Another hot one for wednesday on gfs18z !!

Looks a bit hotter that day than the 12z.

Also appears to have edged a bit towards the other models with handling of the Iberian low but still not re picked up the plume outcome (yet).

Edited July 8, 2022 by MattStoke

[sheikhy]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Looks a bit hotter that day than the 12z.

Also appears to have edged a bit towards the other models with handling of the Iberian low but still re picked up the plume outcome (yet).

Yes mate!!ecm has 24 degrees i think for wednesday and gfs more like 30 degrees!!big difference!!!

[kold weather]

850hpa temps still increasing on the GFS runs recently, now upto 17-18c on Wednesday. Which should be good enough for 34-35c which is indeed what the GFS shows.

Starting to become increasingly impressive on the globals now, which isn't too unusual as we get closer to the time for the models to somewhat up the temps as we know.

The very hot air getting close to being reintroduced on Friday, closer than on the 12z run anyways.

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Another hot one for wednesday on gfs18z !!

Scorcher!

[Man With Beard]

I think all we can deduce from the 18Z is that the GFS is confident it will stay very hot until Tuesday (Wednesday in the SE), but it has no idea what to do with the plume. Vastly different to the previous run.

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks a bit hotter that day than the 12z.

Also appears to have edged a bit towards the other models with handling of the Iberian low but still not re picked up the plume outcome (yet).

Does slowly bring the 20’C into the south on this run.

[sheikhy]

Oooh looks hot throughout next week now on 18z!!!!

[kold weather]

Yep the 18z GFS basically looks very similar to the hotter half of the GFS ensemble and quite similar to a great number of the ECM ensembles as well. Looks more reasonable than the overly progressive 12z GFS.

Very hot run overall on the 18z, the far south never really loses the very warm/hot air.

[Wold Topper]

Scorcher indeed and in the reliable time frame!

[JayAlmeida]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Does slowly bring the 20’C into the south on this run.

And its back like a bad penny

Not as blisteringly hot as prior runs with a maxima of only 38c.

Just the GFS doing GFS things I suppose

Edited July 8, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

And its back like a bad penny

Not quite as extreme as some of the GFS op and ensembles of a few days ago but still pretty damn hot  

[sheikhy]

The atmosphere is so hot and dry next saturday that even the low over france cannot produce thunderstorms at 12pm in the afternoon!!!

[Battleground Snow]

Don't usually post in the summer, but been keeping a watching brief over the low modelled just  off the Iberian peninsula.

Incredible potential to make a run at the national record late next week.

Dry and warm western Europe with a stalled low firing heat up from Africa, at the perfect time of year for the highest potential temperatures.

I see the same people who pop up in winter to shout downgrade in winter also like to do the same thing in summer.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Captain Shortwave]

Another 35C for Wednesday from the GFS, then it throws out this for the following weekend. Not to mention that 30C is probably a possibility every day next week (Thursday/Friday are around 29/30C in places)

   

Day 8 now for something that would be borderline extreme. However big question marks regarding that low to the south west of the UK. However that is really quite something with 100F well within sights on both Saturday and Sunday.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[kold weather]

Extraordinary heat on the 18z GFS, 35c on Wednesday and then upto 37-38c on Saturday. Were that to come off it would probably challenge the record, and would highly likely pin a top 3 ever temp.

Amazing.

[Guest]

Potentially a august 2003 type heatwave on the cards with two peaks. On of mid 30s after day 3-4 before a brief cool off and the big push into the upper 30s?