Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MattStoke]

ECM doesn’t appear to push the plume north at all between +216 and +240 hours but will have to wait for the higher resolution version update to really see as 24 hours is a big time jump between frames.

Did people know you can now view each ECM ensemble in full on meteociel?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, danm said:

It was actually a lot better than that last year in London during that week in July. Four consecutive days above 30°c, with a peak of 32.2°c and a few days either side when temperatures were in the mid to high 20’s:

Surprised it was that warm, i suppose the shocking period from mod June to mid July really did cloud my perception of last summer and what came after it (I remember early June being really nice but nothing about that spell of weather!)

 

[Mark wheeler]

The Mighty Navgem is looking Primed .

[Dancerwithwings]

The over all temps regarding the latest GFS members, is looking highly likely that’ll it’ll be a very summery outlook and hot one at that 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

The Mighty Navgem is looking Primed .

I want the Navgem to give a proper plume just so I can laugh when it puts out a temperature projection of 50’C for southern England

[JayAlmeida]

I would be very interested to see if the GFS 18z re-introduces the plume as it has been missing/subdued for a fair few runs now.

[Mike Poole]

JMA T216 and T240 has the plume making more northerly inroads than the ECM.  

We now have a clear timeframe to be looking at on the operational runs, as a fair few are showing this plume but by no means all (GFS 12z not interested), Sunday 17th to Monday 18th looking like the landing zone if it happens.

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

No idea what to make of the ECM t240 this evening 

It’s a bit messy. Forecasts and guidance seem to show the ridge breaking down somewhat, but it remaining warm overall. Very hard to tell what the last 7-10 days will hold.

[Frosty.]

Very interesting GEFS 12z this evening, the crucial period is between 16th / 17th July!…although it could be a few days later?… …i really hope something spectacular occurs, fingers crossed records get smashed..P25 is insane and there really is strong potential for something exceptionally plumey to evolve! Cheers ⛈ 

Edited July 8, 2022 by jon snow

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Very interesting GEFS 12z this evening, the crucial period is between 16th / 17th July!…i really hope something spectacular occurs, fingers crossed records get smashed..P25 is insane and there really is strong potential for something exceptionally plumey to evolve! Cheers ⛈ 

Aye. Perturbation 25 is a tad on the mild side.

Edited July 8, 2022 by MattStoke

[sheikhy]

Ecm still has mid to high twenties for the next 10 days for parts of midlands east anglia and south east!!!thats pretty amazing if you ask me!!only 1mm of rain in my area as well!!

[Cambrian]

Spanish plume vs. Scandinavian trough at day 9 and 10 on the 12z ECM op. Very steep heights gradient over the UK at day 9, 548 dam just to the north of Scotland, around 590 dam over the south coast. T850 ranging from less than 4 degrees to higher than 20.

 
 

Indeed, it’s all happening - the standoff further complicated by lows being spawned to our west by a slightly reinvigorated jet stream, continuing to gang up out there to day 10. Fried, fridged or fronts - take your pick!

[bluearmy]

Eps mean T2 maxes next sun/Mon are 30c !  
 

the (out of) control run now to 37c on the Monday 

[Man With Beard]

Collosal ECM ensembles again, the control one of a few to tick the 38C box at some point (yes, near Colchester, I double checked!), and plenty push the heat some way north too.

But it's a fools game to nail the specifics yet. In a sense, we're no further forward than we were a few days ago - cut off lows can't even begin to pinned down until T120, the ECM usually the first to see the specifics. That takes us to Sunday/Monday before we'll get a proper steer on the plume.

Not impossible we'll get the hottest days of the year on Tuesday or maybe Wednesday if the plume doesn't land.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Man With Beard

[ancientsolar]

I have the Flu, and these charts are behaving like my fever, completely chilled, completely soaked, and then high temperature! 

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps mean T2 maxes next sun/Mon are 30c !  
 

the (out of) control run now to 37c on the Monday 

Awful lot of those ensemble members are getting into the low 30s for next weekend. The GFS to be fair whilst probably a little less confident also has a fairly reasonable number getting into the 30s, though they tend to be 24-48hrs faster in getting there (which given the ECM cutoff bias may be on the money).

[A Face like Thunder]

4 hours ago, Coopsy said:

I’d have to challenge that. 

Its been common place to reach at least 30oC over the last century at least. In fact between 1932 and 1957 it reached 30oC every year. With almost every year breaking the 32oC, 90oF mark as well.

Over the last 120 years it’s reached 30oC 87% of the time.

 

Every year? Not sure I can agree with you on this. Using Brazell's London figures and allowing a certain amount of leeway, the following years did not get close to 30C max - 1945, 1946, 1951, 1954 and 1956. and, although it comes after the period you quote, 1962 never got above 25C, 77F. As someone else has suggested, we digress, but thanks for raising this!

Edited July 8, 2022 by A Face like Thunder

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps mean T2 maxes next sun/Mon are 30c !  
 

the (out of) control run now to 37c on the Monday 

Control run is absolutely bonkers!  Here T228:

+24C uppers over the entire SE!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

P11 would send the "heat haters club" thread into a frenzy

 

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by 38.7°C

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Control run is absolutely bonkers!  Here T228:

+24C uppers over the entire SE!

I’ve just noticed that sylvain now has all the individual eps members - that’s way too much information to take in! 

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean offers enough encouragement for a plume event around 17th / 18th July to be a good bet, especially considering the support shown on the GEFS 12z!…fingers crossed  

[tight isobar]

The ens - And geos.. noting,worthy heat upto Tuesday then perhaps a downslide.. but as b4 the real heat and perhaps more widespread.. ramps up late nxt week/ weekend.. this will be a sustained grip of plume- And heat syphon.. it won’t likely be to long drawn out b4 more northerly parts of the uk - start to draw in the heat later nxt week.. this infer is only just hatching!!.. I for 1 wish it’s mother stayed in bed with a headache  a very warm / hot day already here today with Max’s around 27/28c..

Edited July 8, 2022 by tight isobar

[Don]

20 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

P11 would send the "heat haters club" thread into a frenzy

I think the heat haters club would have some new members if P11 came off!  Still a way to go before details for next weekend start to firm up.

[tight isobar]

Once again I’ll try to post backing!. But once any “ even near plume “- set foothold, the conditions @ ground levels in the south are perfect notions for the marble effect.. such dry soil/ and arrid swathes are in conjunction with pit bull like bitting with stagnation = increases in transfer!!. My guess is we’ll start to see now via outs a heat gripped south/ southern eastern England.. with a roll on northward punching  with extreme  outcomes likely!!!

Edited July 8, 2022 by tight isobar

[damianslaw]

ECM model for weekend 16/17th shows a flow from the west, it then goes a bit odd at 240 hr timeframe, pressure builds behind a NW flow.