Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Guest]

A very hot weekend touted by the ECM 0zz operational. Low to mid 30s Saturday with mid to high 30s possible for the south on Sunday. With that low churning close to Biscay, it is a classic plume setup just with higher 850s than we're used to. 

[mb018538]

32c at midday Saturday and 34c at midday Sunday on the ecm run. Doesn’t show the peak afternoon temps at 3-4pm but you can assume it’s going to be 2-4c higher than at midday.  

[bluearmy]

55 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GEM also no where near as good this morning, and after a blistering 18z GFS, the 00z ensembles are a little more shaky in terms of the evolution, though moist do still just about make it, so despite an amazing GFS op I'd say things have taken a step back again this morning.

At least the 00z GEM op was one of the most progressive and coolest from its ensembles.

I like the gem solution- I fear I’m to be disappointed!

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

32c at midday Saturday and 34c at midday Sunday on the ecm run. Doesn’t show the peak afternoon temps at 3-4pm but you can assume it’s going to be 2-4c higher than at midday.  

ec max temps are always undercooked on the model 

Sat max 34c

sun max 36c

that ec op closer to yesterdays 12z control which was much better supported in the 6/9 day period by the eps members. 

[Guest]

ECM is a cracker with a strong high pressure building again just to the west of the UK. Could well be a repeat pattern not unlike the GFS which brings the heat back again after next weekend's plume.

Every chance of another cut off low developing close to Iberia had the run gone for another day or two, IMO.

Edited July 9, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[iand61]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Of course, they will. Summer 1976 wasn't just a heatwave. It was drought, standpipes, hour after hour of sunshine...etc.

 

Agreed and it also affected much more of the UK whereas so far this year anyone north of the M62 is still waiting for the summer to arrive.

Edited July 9, 2022 by iand61
Spelling

[Frosty.]

Even the Ukmo 0z which only goes to T+168 hours shows there’s something cooking by next weekend following a very brief dip in temperatures associated with more cloud…but, in the meantime, it’s long periods of sunshine and very warm / hot for most of England and Wales! ️  

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by jon snow

[kold weather]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I like the gem solution- I fear I’m to be disappointed!

ec max temps are always undercooked on the model 

Sat max 34c

sun max 36c

that ec op closer to yesterdays 12z control which was much better supported in the 6/9 day period by the eps members. 

I mean the GEM solution is still perfectly acceptable, warm/very warm and probably decent sunshine, its just compared with the other models it falls very flat on the excitement scale!

Anyway the ECM op is exceptionally hot, and given its probably 1-2c too low from the off would lead to something approaching record breaking, though my guess would be we'd fall a little short. 100F would be a possibility though in the sort of flow it shows.

Still the GEM solution shows what could still happen should the atlantic be a little more progressive, and its hardly something to ignore at this stage.

[Uncertainty]

Looking beyond plumegate, a 3rd ridge noses in by day 10 on the ECM…

 

GFS very similar

 

Broadly supported by the GEFS

 

The GEM, whilst introducing an unsettled north westerly for a time, also has evidence of this 3rd ridge to the SW

 

So it’s quite possible we could have 3 bursts of high pressure, with the quasi-breakdown of the 2nd ridge  later next weekend harbouring the greatest chance of a burst of very hot weather.

Interestingly, the normally cautious Icon goes for big time heat and an incoming thundery low by the end of its run.

Lots of moving parts then still and uncertainty remains but little rain for S areas looks highly likely and the spectre of severe heat remains possible next weekend.

[minus10]

Wow...talk about twin peaks...quite a set of ens from 0z gfs with big spread  from about day 7 onwards..

One for the collection..

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Of course, they will. Summer 1976 wasn't just a heatwave. It was drought, standpipes, hour after hour of sunshine...etc.

 

In 76 we had already had a run of very hot days, many daily temperature records were set and still apply today... so far this summer has been nowhere near this time in '76.

So i agree with you.... however, 1976 was 46 years ago and not many here now were born, so cannot remember it. Experiencing it first hand is always better than reading about it..

[MattStoke]

Summer 2018 had an average mean temperature 0.03’C above that of 1976, and 0.2’C above for England, but climate change deniers always ignore that one.

[mushymanrob]

Meanwhile....

Thats a very strong upper flow, and imho will prevent a lasting hot spell. However it does allow for surface plumes, so these extreme heat pulses are on the cards - at least as viable possibilities.
It also suggests the South will be hottest, but the North cool and unsettled?
 

[sheikhy]

Wow amazing hot runs this morning!!parts of the uk stay hot for the next 10 days!!!thats not something we use to seeing!!ecm now joins the gfs in bringing in the hot air!!now dont get me wrong i am the ecms number 1 fun and always will be but it really is going through a tough time recently!!gfs has outperformed it on a number of occassions which is not something i am use to seeing!!something to keep an eye on as we approach winter!

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wow amazing hot runs this morning!!parts of the uk stay hot for the next 10 days!!!thats not something we use to seeing!!ecm now joins the gfs in bringing in the hot air!!now dont get me wrong i am the ecms number 1 fun and always will be but it really is going through a tough time recently!!gfs has outperformed it on a number of occassions which is not something i am use to seeing!!something to keep an eye on as we approach winter!

ECM extended ens have shown the potential plume for quite a while now. GFS first picked it up but then dropped it.

[Man With Beard]

Too much scatter on the ECM ensembles to see a way forward after Friday. Still a lot of extremely hot ensembles, perhaps not quite as many as yesterday but those were simply off the chart.

We starting tracking this at D15 - it's now D7/D8, and the values of 35C, 38C and even 40C still are not off the table...

Edited July 9, 2022 by Man With Beard

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM extended ens have shown the potential plume for quite a while now. GFS first picked it up but then dropped it.

Yeh last few days the potential was there but i was sort of on the back foot but now am thinkin this COULD actually happen!!

[mb018538]

Wouldnt get too giddy over the ecm when looking at the ens. Big outlier for heat at that level.

[sheikhy]

What i find funny is the ecm op was not as good yesterday but the ensembles were better but now today the ops good but apparently the ensembles are not!!now is that because the ensembles shove the heat to the east or there aint enough amplification to push it north?!!

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Wouldnt get too giddy over the ecm when looking at the ens. Big outlier for heat at that level.

A 16’C 850hpa mean is pretty hot.

Potential plume scenario now coming into range of MOGREPS. A lot of hot runs in there. The control (dark blue line) doesn’t appear to show much up to the 17th at least. Could though be that it has the potential plume a bit later given that it starts to uptick.

Edited July 9, 2022 by MattStoke

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What i find funny is the ecm op was not as good yesterday but the ensembles were better but now today the ops good but apparently the ensembles are not!!now is that because the ensembles shove the heat to the east or there aint enough amplification to push it north?!!

There's nothing wrong with those ensembles. We may be distracted by the operational being a bit of an outlier for the plume party, but that mean is hot in itself.

[Staffmoorlands]

Once again looking at raw output doesn’t give the full picture. From Tuesday, we see increasing clouds and generally more unsettled conditions especially north of Birmingham. Temperatures 21-23c.

Probably a good week to holiday in the south for us northern folk.

 

[kold weather]

12 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Once again looking at raw output doesn’t give the full picture. From Tuesday, we see increasing clouds and generally more unsettled conditions especially north of Birmingham. Temperatures 21-23c.

Probably a good week to holiday in the south for us northern folk other than *maybe* Scotland.

 

Whats certainly true is how much more uncertain the temp profile further north is, especially once your north of say Manchester, then the 850hpa profile looks less above average.

With that being said unsettled...in what world? Utter nonsense for at least England. 0-1mm of rain for all but the far NW Cumbria potentially and winds below 10-15mph pretty much throughout the next 10 days. Very unsettled that!

Edited July 9, 2022 by kold weather

[CoxR]

looks like the ec control might've gone for a reload of the plume similarly to the GFS op 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, CoxR said:

looks like the ec control might've gone for a reload of the plume similarly to the GFS op 

Those ensembles look identical to gfs!!whats all the fuss about then lol!

[mb018538]

22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A 16’C 850hpa mean is pretty hot.

Potential plume scenario now coming into range of MOGREPS. A lot of hot runs in there. The control (dark blue line) doesn’t appear to show much up to the 17th at least. Could though be that it has the potential plume a bit later given that it starts to uptick.

Mean is good, but that massively hot op run must be adding a bit to that!