Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Don't usually post in the summer, but been keeping a watching brief over the low modelled just  off Iberian peninsula.

Incredible potential to make a run at the national record late next week.

Dry and warm western Europe with a stalled low firing heat up from Africa, at the perfect time of year for the highest potential temperatures.

I see the same people who pop in winter to shout downgrade in winter also like to do the same thing in summer.

Good to hear from u buddy!!your normally my winter update man on this forum ✌!!!

[Don]

Potential temperature record challenges again on the GFS 18z for next weekend, but still a way off.

[JayAlmeida]

Two consecutive days in the high 30s not something you see every day at this range.  

[Guest]

The pub on the shots tonight both Sat and Sun weekend showing 38C maxes. Crazy 

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not quite as extreme as some of the GFS op and ensembles of a few days ago but still pretty damn hot  

And if the Saturday doesn’t challenge records, the Sunday might.

[kold weather]

GFS for London over the next 9 days:

26c, 28c, 32c, 32, 33, 35, 29, 25, 37, 37.

No way anyone can deny that would be a very memorable hot spell. It kinda reminds me of late July/Aug 2020 which had several fairly extreme heat blasts. 

Would almost certainly see a 38-39c over the weekend should that come off.

Edited July 8, 2022 by kold weather

[MattStoke]

17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS for London over the next 9 days:

26c, 28c, 32c, 32, 33, 35, 29, 25, 37, 37.

No way anyone can deny that would be a very memorable hot spell. It kinda reminds me of late July/Aug 2020 which had several fairly extreme heat blasts. 

Would almost certainly see a 38-39c over the weekend should that come off.

And then 35’C (on the Monday).

[summer blizzard]

While the GFS12z held with the split in recent days (outside the far south, the job was done by midweek, the GFS18z joins the Euro 12z in rebuilding a plume next weekend.

 

As horrific as the plume may be though it thankfully looks a Sat-Mon affair for most. Only the far south really keeps the heat.

 

[Iceman2606]

27 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Two consecutive days in the high 30s not something you see every day at this range.  

Then goes to this a few days later Classic GFS!

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

Then goes to this a few days later Classic GFS!

Sweet relief 

[kold weather]

Very good agreement on the mechanisms of a plume on the 18z GFS ensembles, a majority now have a plume of some description at least for the Se/S of England, though some are glancing affairs still.

Also large disagreements with regards to timings, some go as early as 144hrs, whilst others take to nearly 240hrs, as it takes a 2nd upper trough in the Atlantic to lift the upper low feature NE along with the heat dome.

Until that is better resolved I'm very wary of having high confidence in this set-up, but another step towards a hot weekend next weekend.

PS - probably the warmest ensembles I've ever seen...record 850hpa temps are about 25c from June 2019....multiple runs exceed that!

Edited July 8, 2022 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Just looking through the individual GFS 18z ensembles and they are really quite amazing to look at. A large majority are peaking above 35c now at some point between Weds and the the following Mon, with an increasing number going north of 37c now as well.

I think thats probably the hottest set of GFS ensembles I've seen overall.

[tight isobar]

42 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just looking through the individual GFS 18z ensembles and they are really quite amazing to look at. A large majority are peaking above 35c now at some point between Weds and the the following Mon, with an increasing number going north of 37c now as well.

I think thats probably the hottest set of GFS ensembles I've seen overall.

The 18z spreads speak volumes.. and have between warm hot/ some record breaking- taking snaps!!! I’ve stuck 1 2m shade drops in.. to which is where temperature probability are in mid/ upper supposed! So to highlight the 5/8 c you can assume in sunlight/ exposure.. again.. the heat possibilities/ probability for -at least mid/southern England.. is looking v- noteworthy!!!!@ roll on winter

Edited July 9, 2022 by tight isobar

[clark3r]

Wow what a hot run from the gfs this morning, 38 shown again next Sunday, every chance 40 will be reached. The following week stays hot and record breaking heat builds again.

Edited July 9, 2022 by clark3r

[Captain Shortwave]

The model output this morning moderates the temperatures for Wednesday (Still 32C towards the south east and even areas under the cold front should remain warm with broken cloud).

Given the UKMO and GEM have similar profiles, I think this is a reasonable temperature distribution at this time.

Thursday and Friday look a little cooler, though again temperatures will hold up well (Mid twenties on Thursday and possibly high twenties again on Friday).

The weekend is starting to look like one to watch, the GFS again goes for the mid to high thirties on both days across central/southern England.

   

 

The UKMO at day 7 has the 16C isotherm pushing into southern areas with the Azores low drifting northwards.

   

I have to say that the UKMO looks more ominous than the GFS because you can see how the high could set up favourably for a southerly flow thanks to the low south of Greenland and the chance of that trough interacting with the low west of Portugal.

One to watch for the moment.

[kold weather]

GEM also no where near as good this morning, and after a blistering 18z GFS, the 00z ensembles are a little more shaky in terms of the evolution, though moist do still just about make it, so despite an amazing GFS op I'd say things have taken a step back again this morning.

At least the 00z GEM op was one of the most progressive and coolest from its ensembles.

[Guest]

GFS is outstanding after a little cool off midweek (and 30C could be reached on the south coast both thurs and Fri imo) 38/39C next weekend it then drops things back to the low 30s for 3 or 4days before the 37-39s come back later that week. Anything like that happened no one would ever mentioned 1976 again…..

 

 

[clark3r]

Arpege goes for 36 on Tuesday 

[kold weather]

Just looking through the individual GFS ensembles and again some very hot runs, though I'd argue they aren't as impressive overall as the 18z were last night, lots more glancing blows where the surface temps only respond to a smaller degree. 

Some runs of course still go mega hot like the GFS op and the mean for next Sunday is still 30c which suggests there are some very hot runs in there for a mean that high this far out.

[mb018538]

I spy a 40c on the gfs next Sunday….after a 38c on Saturday. Crazy hot run.

[MattStoke]

ECM looking more progressive with the Iberian low further east. Might mean a stronger but more brief plume.

[Captain Shortwave]

A little bit more of an agreement (or a compromise) from the GFS/ECM this morning. Saturday now looking hot or very hot on the ECM.

   

[Weather-history]

25 minutes ago, Alderc said:

. Anything like that happened no one would ever mentioned 1976 again…..

 

 

Of course, they will. Summer 1976 wasn't just a heatwave. It was drought, standpipes, hour after hour of sunshine...etc.

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A little bit more of an agreement (or a compromise) from the GFS/ECM this morning. Saturday now looking hot or very hot on the ECM.

   

Yes it has the low further NE compared to the 12z yesterday. Saturday as you say looks considerably hotter as a result. A long way to go of course but it is starting to look like we're approaching some sort of favoured pattern for next weekend.

[mb018538]

20c line well through the southern half of the UK by Sunday on the ECM…