Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[The Tall Weatherman]

Exceptional heat being pushed into southern UK is likely when the run updates on the GEM. The GFS as I know can be more accurate.

[mountain shadow]

30 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Happy Monday . Looks like UKMO has come up with the best chart of the summer so far for you guys. Should be minimum cloud cover, especially for England and Wales.

C

Looks a very brief continental influence though before the maritime influence returns.

The North West will be lucky to squeeze a couple of proper Summer days, with 100% cloud cover the norm. 

[Guest]

After brilliant 12 & 18Z runs this mornings GFS really shunts the warmer air out later next week, in fact the mean drops below average for a time before rapidly again. Not sure I like where the UKMO day 6chart is as would clear the warmth through as well. GEM and ICON look best for extended heat this morning. Still all of that is a long way and before then at least 6 very warm and sunny days across southern England. 

[sheikhy]

Much much flatter this morning!!ecm ends current hot spell on tuesday!!we then look at what the azores high does thereafter!!

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Much much flatter this morning!!ecm ends current hot spell on tuesday!!we then look at what the azores high does thereafter!!

Would still be warm/very warm.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Much much flatter this morning!!ecm ends current hot spell on tuesday!!we then look at what the azores high does thereafter!!

Horrid ECM chart a T120. Everything much flatter really. 

[sheikhy]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Would still be warm/very warm.

Still very warm on that chart yes matt but i reckon a lot cooler for wednesday!!!infact all models seem to have flattened everything this morning compared to the last few days!!i expected this to be honest cos all those 40 degree charts were quite extreme lol!!heat will hopefully build in again thursday onwards!

[Howie]

Really can't take this chopping and changing 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Would still be warm/very warm.

Not really, the detail shows a stronger cold front pushing right across the country with cloud and rain for all…..

This is probably the most disappointing chart in the last week…

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful runs this morning for the North West. Barely squeezing one day of warm weather before the cool Atlantic returns. 

Talk of record breaking temperatures are pure fantasy.

[January Snowstorm]

The models are now starting to agree on the jet running over the top of next week's high putting us back to square one by Wednesday. The thundery low moving up from biscay has all but vanished..

[Howie]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The models are now starting to agree on the jet running over the top of next week's high putting us back to square one by Wednesday. The thundery low moving up from biscay has all but vanished..

The jet stream ruins everything for us in the UK

[Singularity]

An even flatter ECM 00z rolling out, which is surprising given it was already at the flatter end of yesterday’s EPS 12z spread.

This of course keeps the very warm to hot temps south focused but it may also have the effect of further delaying a breakdown because it still has the west of Iberia low staying well south and west compared to GFS and with a flatter pattern there’s less or a ‘reach-down’ by troughs to try and lift it northward.

Thats bad news for mainland Western Europe, where heat then persists even longer. This could also affect the UK but as usual we’re peripheral, looking for overlaps.

Still, re-amplification can’t be ruled out and as the ECM 12z of yesterday showed emphatically, it won’t take much to set up a high-end plume event.

[sheikhy]

Apart from the ukmo its not been a good start this morning!!!!flatter ecm throughout!!

[Scorcher]

Massive overreactions in here this morning, although I can't say I'm surprised by that! Still so much to be settled and it's one set of op runs. Let's see what the ensembles show- could well be outliers or at least out of sync with the means.

[Djdazzle]

To be any exceptional heat has always been way into FI.

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Massive overreactions in here this morning, although I can't say I'm surprised by that! Still so much to be settled and it's one set of op runs. Let's see what the ensembles show- could well be outliers or at least out of sync with the means.

I really can’t see what’s changed. For days computer models have shown a weak cold front slipping south mid week to very briefly bring in cooler conditions before high pressure and warmer temperatures push back in from the south west. No difference this morning. Strength of that cold front and the possible plume later on are the only things that remain uncertain.

Edited July 8, 2022 by MattStoke

[sheikhy]

And once again an amplification which stays at day 10 on ecm!!!still very useful weather before that!!

29 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Would still be warm/very warm.

Matt here comes the heat at day 10 again!!!!!!!!!give it a blow from stoke man so we can push this thing into the reliable time frame!

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I really can’t see what’s changed. For days computer models have shown a weak cold front slipping south mid week before high pressure and warmer temperatures push back in from the south west. No difference this morning. Strength of that cold front and the possible plume later on are the only things that remain uncertain.

I think there is probably a delay to the real heat from the ECM- but it still does eventually reach the UK. It never really gets here on the GFS run at all but taking a GFS op run as gospel at the moment is crazy given the amount of chopping and changing we've been getting from the GFS.

[Staffmoorlands]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful runs this morning for the North West. Barely squeezing one day of warm weather before the cool Atlantic returns. 

Talk of record breaking temperatures are pure fantasy.

I said this yesterday - it was very clear that a change was on its way from next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Still looks decent for the south and temperatures likely to hit 32c for a time.

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Really strange transition on ECM from T192 to T216. But what do I know. Still a slow burning plume but the pattern is quite tentative. 

Main headline this morning: jet picking up slightly, northern areas less settled after mid-week.

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think there is probably a delay to the real heat from the ECM- but it still does eventually reach the UK. It never really gets here on the GFS run at all but taking a GFS op run as gospel at the moment is crazy given the amount of chopping and changing we've been getting from the GFS.

Things just moving a little more slowly but the pattern is the same. Still only very briefly cooler for many mid next week. Slower heat build thereafter may mean it’s more prolonged rather than a short sharp plume. Computer models often seem to move things along too quickly initially. Don’t know why.

[Methuselah]

Just taken my morning look-see at the BBC app: 16 straight days at 21C or above, so most of this morning adjectives do not apply!

Edited July 8, 2022 by Ed Stone

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Just taken my morning look-see at the BBC app: 16 straight days at 21C or above, so most of this morning adjective do not apply!

Try Derry or Oban

[mhielte]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful runs this morning for the North West. Barely squeezing one day of warm weather before the cool Atlantic returns. 

Talk of record breaking temperatures are pure fantasy.

Those two statements do not link at all. Since when does a cooler spell for the NW marry up to the potential for record temperatures further south and east?

Some massive IMBY overreactions this morning.