Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

why could it potentially be very hot? crewe

Quite simply because in the chart above a section of the HP is migrating E or 'splitting' from the main core of HP. As this transfers E there will be a window where the Iberian LP pumps up some very high upper temps (20c+) towards the UK. This will likely translate to temperatures of 35-40C over the UK, dependent on how high the upper temps are and what time of the day the peak uppers occur.

Either way, we're not in a good place going forward. Make no mistake about it, the UK is not prepared for such heat and unfortunately if temperatures hit the upper estimates, people will die of heat exacerbated issues. Given the current state of the NHS and the ongoing energy crisis, this isn't good at all.

Edited July 7, 2022 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS turns thundery

Thankfully the main thrust of the heat goes into Europe

Edited July 7, 2022 by CreweCold

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS turns thundery

from the gfs 0z...thursday seems to be the cool day of next week..highs of only 26c! hahaha

Edited July 7, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
wrong

[Lukesluckybunch]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS turns thundery

Thankfully the main thrust of the heat goes into Europe

yes it does,just brushes the south for a short time...it is very close by though that dangerous heat...one that needs watching as its still several days away

[clark3r]

Gfs has been chopping and changing so much, want to see what the ecm looks like this morning, on the gfs this morning it is the usual heatwave temps for the U.K. nothing extreme, if ECM shows extreme heat again then I recon gfs will flip again today 

[mb018538]

A little bit more of a squeeze on heights on the 00z runs after Tuesday is pushing the very warm air a bit further south than the 12z. Still hot in the south, but the heat boundary has been squeezed a bit. Perhaps also looking like an end in sight for those who hate this kind of weather, next weekend looks to be where the pattern breaks and the high collapses away. Still a very hot and summery spell to come for the next 10 days though  

[Guest]

Anyway to my untrained eye, GEM and Ukmo still good in the short although both look flatter later next week and probably won’t engage the plume of really hot air to the south. Gfs is better than the 18Z last but it’s still nothing like the previous half dozen runs. Still the ensemble mean has made a marked recovery the mess that was the 18Z 

Feels like we’re in that period where the pattern gets sorted out. Just like in June when initially the Friday to Monday looked especially hot, ended up being just the Friday with doubt over the Saturday up until 24hrs out. Wouldn’t be surprised to end up in a similar situation next weekend. Very brief plume, one very hot day maybe 35C before a rapid, messy not thundery breakdown. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Paul
Removed quote and response as it's off topic and the original post has already been moved to the summer chat thread

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Agreed completely, the weather will do what’ll it do, if it’s 40C next weekend we can’t do anything about just like if it all falls apart and ends up raining. 
 

Anyway to my untrained eye, GEM and Ukmo still good in the short although both look flatter later next week and probably won’t engage the plume of really hot air to the south. Gfs is better than the 18Z last but it’s still nothing like the previous half dozen runs. Still the ensemble mean has made a marked recovery the mess that was the 18Z 

Feels like we’re in that period where the pattern gets sorted out. Just like in June when initially the Friday to Monday looked especially hot, ended up being just the Friday with doubt over the Saturday up until 24hrs out. Wouldn’t be surprised to end up in a similar situation next weekend. Very brief plume, one very hot day maybe 35C before a rapid, messy not thundery breakdown. 

Typical UK stuff

[Mike Poole]

GEM this morning similar to yesterday’s ECM with the shape of the plume, but a day or so behind, +20C isotherm poised with some margin for error at the end of the run, T240:

It is worth me noting for the record, that while I love hot summer weather, the kind of temperatures shown in the 10-15 day charts of some runs, breaking 40C here in the south, are not something I would look forward to, and are of significant concern.  I am of course fascinated by the current pattern in the model output from an extremes point of view, hence the interest.  One saving grace, is that it is still true that this visit of the +20C isotherm at 850 hPa like others in the past, is unstable and (probably) will be very transitory.  Just to note the difference with e.g. central France, where such surface temperatures can persist.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Mike Poole

[saintkip]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Anyway to my untrained eye, GEM and Ukmo still good in the short although both look flatter later next week and probably won’t engage the plume of really hot air to the south. Gfs is better than the 18Z last but it’s still nothing like the previous half dozen runs. Still the ensemble mean has made a marked recovery the mess that was the 18Z 

Feels like we’re in that period where the pattern gets sorted out. Just like in June when initially the Friday to Monday looked especially hot, ended up being just the Friday with doubt over the Saturday up until 24hrs out. Wouldn’t be surprised to end up in a similar situation next weekend. Very brief plume, one very hot day maybe 35C before a rapid, messy not thundery breakdown. 

Let’s hope so 

[mb018538]

ECM also showing a cold front dropping through on Wednesday, so only the very far south could stay very warm on weds.

Recovering Thursday: 

[Staffmoorlands]

GFS suggests a couple of decent days for those north of Birmingham from Sunday. More in the way of cloud from Tuesday ( also shown on the ECM) from midweek. Fax charts will have the detail.

Looks great for most of southern England though.

[sheikhy]

Yup plume seems to have dissapeared this morning or the plume seems to stay around day 10 should i say!expected that anyway!!!still mid to high twenties for some places for the next 7 to 10 days!!cant complain!!

Edited July 7, 2022 by sheikhy

[mb018538]

ECM winding up the plume into day 9/10 again…

[Man With Beard]

Not enormous amounts of change on the 00Z except once again a bit of a flattening of the pattern, preventing everything heating up quite as much as it could. The ECM is one or degrees down every day compared with the 12Z last night - still hot but less widespread Weds/Thurs. Extreme plumes not quite hitting the UK on this one but the potential remains 

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM winding up the plume into day 9/10 again…

Up to 32c, much less severe than the 12z offerings! I think it’s hard to say what will happen late next week, as this all relies on how the upper low over the Azores interacts with the high etc. Plenty to sort out before then!

[Frosty.]

I’m liking day 10!  

[bluearmy]

The ops which drive the excessive plume are in conjunction with the upper low west of Iberia drifting north 

at the moment the favoured solution on this side of the pendulum is for the Atlantic to phase with this Azores low drifting north which pushes everything a little east and quickens the plume event to be a 24 hour at most. 
 

at eight/nine days out , getting the timing of the Atlantic trough pulse and escaping cut off upper low is likely unreliable.  
 

certainly one to watch because if the Azores low doesn’t phase and just drifts nne then the plume across nw Europe north will be at least 48 hours extremely notable and likely dangerous. 

[minus10]

What strikes me about the gfes 850s 0z is less scatter /uncertainty towards the end of the run for the south but a period of volatility between 15th and 21st with a few crazy ens again

still some way to go on this...

...also its clear just how dry it is going to be..

The ground is like rock yesterday in the gardens i was working in...situation only going to get worse i think...

[mb018538]

 

The hot days next week are starting to come into view on the high res UKV. Could perhaps see 31/32c on Monday afternoon  

[A Face like Thunder]

Let's hope the new servers can cope with the activity on this thread...!

[mountain shadow]

Maybe the North West can squeeze one or two days of proper Summer before the cloud spills back in from the Atlantic. 

[Frosty.]

The longer term ECMWF 0z ensemble mean is a cracker!…the short / mid term ain’t too shabby either!  

[kold weather]

Still quite a sustained very warm/hot spell on offer for the south, the north more at risk of temporary breakdowns at time, though the GFS op run has been consistently on the more progressive side of the ensembles and indeed of the models in general.

Its worth noting the GFS ensembles have an increasing number of hot runs for Tuesday-Thursday, quite a few reaching between 33-35c now in the SE.

Edited July 7, 2022 by kold weather

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Still quite a sustained very warm/hot spell on offer for the south, the north more at risk of temporary breakdowns at time, though the GFS op run has been consistently on the more progressive side of the ensembles and indeed of the models in general.

Its worth noting the GFS ensembles have an increasing number of hot runs for Tuesday-Thursday, quite a few reaching between 33-35c now in the SE.

Hopefully we don’t end up with the hot stuff midweek and another break down during the weekend