Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Nothing wrong with it buddy, 30c Monday and 32c on Tuesday  

Oooh you are damn right its still absolutely beautiful!!!look at the heat building in again for thursday/friday!

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Try 16C in the North West buddy. We can't get a break from the eternal Autumn.

I feel your pain. I hate it when it’s below 21c here, I don’t think I could bare having no summer heat or celebrating 25c as a notable heatwave. Even though I moan about the UK weather a lot, I count myself fortunate to live where I do, in the hotter corner of the country.

[Singularity]

Impressive consistency from ECM for a couple of days now, assuming the actual outcome is close to its predictions. It’s tended to be near the middle of the EPS spread, too.

All while GFS battles with flatness syndrome and UKM switches between more amplified and relatively flat outcomes.

[MattStoke]

ECM lining up for that plume at day 10….

[mb018538]

Just now, MattStoke said:

ECM lining up for that plume at day 10….

It might as well have ‘incoming’ tattooed across the chart! 20c line is there again on Saturday….this is getting real folks. A lot of consistency for this now.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It might as well have ‘incoming’ tattooed across the chart! 20c line is there again on Saturday….this is getting real folks. A lot of consistency for this now.

Yes but could do with it hanging around for at least 48hours, not just blasting the 20C uppers in for 18-24hrs....ECM like GFS would blow them through very quickly Sat night, maybe even earlier. Remember the fun we had in June with the heat being blasted away quickly.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Alderc

[Uncertainty]

The next frame, although we shall never know, might have been quite remarkable… 

[Mike Poole]

Into the furnace by T240 on the ECM - this would go on to be very hot indeed:

Edited July 6, 2022 by Mike Poole

[MattStoke]

That looks like a potentially more prolonged plume on the ECM than the GFS. The low to the south west kept further at bay by stronger high pressure to the east but pumping that very hot air our way. Would have produced very hot charts indeed on that run if it went out further.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes but could do with it hanging around for at least 48hours, not just blasting the 20C uppers in for 18-24hrs....ECM like GFS would blow them through very quickly Sat night, maybe even earlier. Remember the fun we had in June with the heat being blasted away quickly.

It would, but the set up needed to deliver the 20c line into the uk is nearly always unstable, and not long lasting due to the dynamics involved. A lot easier to get a week of 30c that’s for sure! Back end of next week looks to be the landing day, next Friday/Saturday perhaps. See if it’s still there on the 00z o morrow and go from there. Lots that could go wrong.

[Jason Lancett]

Have a thought for us poor buggers building Boris floor HS2.. I'm working in old oak common ..north London I went down with heat stroke last year..anything higher than 30 to me is a no no

[Frosty.]

…Is it hot in here or is it me?…nah it’s the ECM innit!…. ...Fantastic ECMWF 12z operational, and in my opinion an even better ending than the 0z…..and that was spectacular, here’s a direct day 10 comparison for your viewing pleasure!  

Edited July 6, 2022 by jon snow

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes but could do with it hanging around for at least 48hours, not just blasting the 20C uppers in for 18-24hrs....ECM like GFS would blow them through very quickly Sat night, maybe even earlier. Remember the fun we had in June with the heat being blasted away quickly.

I’m not sure it would. That low looks held well at bay and the high pressure looks stronger than on the GFS. I think it would be more prolonged.

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It would, but the set up needed to deliver the 20c line into the uk is nearly always unstable, and not long lasting due to the dynamics involved. A lot easier to get a week of 30c that’s for sure! Back end of next week looks to be the landing day, next Friday/Saturday perhaps. See if it’s still there on the 00z o morrow and go from there. Lots that could go wrong.

Yes, the +20C isotherm is unstable in the UK and the pattern will pretty well always moves away east.  Which is why the ECM T240 chart is significant, given the westward extent of the plume of hot air, quite unusual, there is plenty heat to come even as it moves east.  

Edited July 6, 2022 by Mike Poole

[snowfall09]

Hi All,

Would someone be so kind to post the GFS roll out times please.

Thanks

[MATTWOLVES 3]

There have been a few nervous members on here earlier today...but for me ECM shows the way forward with summary conditions for many and a build up of heat that could also become notable towards the end of the run.

GFS can carry on showing its many default weather patterns over and over again,its the big EURO model that I like to see on-board.

I feel the best part of the summer is about to begin....not for all just yet...but for many areas its flip flops deckchairs and barbies at the ready.

.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Not strictly true. 

The threshold for Greater London and the Home counties  is 28°C

27°C for counties surrounding that area, and 26°C for counties further afield.

Yes your correct...I new I was partly accurate regarding the duration. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

Hi All,

Would someone be so kind to post the GFS roll out times please.

Thanks

4.30am.....10.30am....4.30pm and 10.30pm.

Save yourself the heartache and don't torture yourself with it mate...I certainly wouldn't be setting my alarm clock to view it...

[Frosty.]

Whisper it but I think the Japanese were on to something with the 0z…all roads lead to HOT! Let’s hope this is a memorable summer for the RIGHT reasons ehhh!  

[Derecho]

I think there are more hints emerging about the picture over the next 10 days on today's runs. Heat from Sunday-Tuesday looks nailed on and perhaps into Wednesday too. A slight moderation at that point as cool air tries to dig in from the NW. However increasing evidence of a plume the following weekend and I believe this may see the highest temperatures.

Very interesting few days of model output coming up!

[Man With Beard]

37 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That looks like a potentially more prolonged plume on the ECM than the GFS. The low to the south west kept further at bay by stronger high pressure to the east but pumping that very hot air our way. Would have produced very hot charts indeed on that run if it went out further.

Indeed! This would have been a record breaker had it gone on a couple of days. Will be interesting to see if the control run follows.

[Frosty.]

Drumroll… … …Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean towards the end shows there’s support for the operational… !…  

[Don]

57 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I feel the best part of the summer is about to begin....not for all just yet...but for many areas its flip flops deckchairs and barbies at the ready.

Hmm, not sure barbies will be needed looking at some of the runs, the patio would probably more than suffice!!

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Drumroll… … …Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean towards the end shows there’s support for the operational… !…  

Yep. Decent support there.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. Decent support there.

I wonder where those mean and operational runs would be a couple of days later?!