Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Man With Beard]

I'm seeing a typical flattening of the pattern just edging into the models - whether it is sufficient to keep the very hottest weather out of the south remains to be seen - if a trough develops to the SW towards the end of next week as is being shown on many models, that'll be enough to usher the extreme heat in whether or not the heat is already in situ.

[mb018538]

Wouldn't worry about the GFS at the moment.

It did the same on the 00z which was against the vast majority of the ensemble and other models too.

[danm]

9 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Looks like talk of a heatwave was wide of the mark - look at the 06z from the GFS coming out now! It might be a bit warmer than normal for those in the UK looking to live in the SE corner but look at the Northerly coming on Wednesday next week. Icelandic trough making its move south/south east and the Azores high retrogresses well into the Atlantic..  There is a slight attempt for the ridge to push back into the SW approaches. An extremely powerful jet blasts across Northern Europe next week.  

We have temperatures forecast to be between the high 20's and low 30's between Friday and the middle of next week for these parts - I'd call that a heatwave. That's more than "a bit warmer than normal". 

[JayAlmeida]

GFS going from West (Previous Runs) to East with epicentre of the heat but 41c is hit yet again. 

Apart from the obvious record breaking heat spike its a pretty mediocre run for those outside of the far SE past next Tuesday.

Edited July 6, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Lukesluckybunch]

pressure wise looks as though the op was outlier,,massively

[MattStoke]

23 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Looks like talk of a heatwave was wide of the mark - look at the 06z from the GFS coming out now! It might be a bit warmer than normal for those in the UK looking to live in the SE corner but look at the Northerly coming on Wednesday next week. Icelandic trough making its move south/south east and the Azores high retrogresses well into the Atlantic..  There is a slight attempt for the ridge to push back into the SW approaches. An extremely powerful jet blasts across Northern Europe next week.  

Easily a heatwave. Low 30s in the south is way above the heatwave threshold and not just ‘a bit warmer than normal’.

Edited July 6, 2022 by MattStoke

[Lukesluckybunch]

gfs op once again big cold outlier guys

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

GFS going from West (Previous Runs) to East with epicentre of the heat but 41c is hit yet again. 

Apart from the obvious record breaking heat spike its a pretty mediocre run for those outside of the far SE past next Tuesday.

Next weekend keeps cropping up with these crazy temperatures.

Is this the time to mention the GFS has historically been as much as 4C too low on maximum charts? Perhaps this has been corrected for the coming summer, if not... 

[seabreeze86]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Next weekend keeps cropping up with these crazy temperatures.

Is this the time to mention the GFS has historically been as much as 4C too low on maximum charts? Perhaps this has been corrected for the coming summer, if not... 

something has definitely changed with the GFS max temperatures noticed that on the last plume when it went way higher that actually occurred a few days out . Has there been a upgrade?

[JayAlmeida]

7 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

something has definitely changed with the GFS max temperatures noticed that on the last plume when it went way higher that actually occurred a few days out . Has there been a upgrade?

The GFS consistently said 35-37c for the south during the build up to last months heat spike and it ended up being 32-33c if memory serves.

Edited July 6, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

The GFS consistently said 35-37c for the south during the build up to last months heat spike and it ended up being 32-33c if memory serves.

But those higher temps were based on uppers of 22-24C, in reality the 20C isotherm just scraped the south coast. 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

The GFS consistently said 35-37c for the south during the build up to last months heat spike and it ended up being 32-33c if memory serves.

Yes, you are correct, the highest temperature recorded on the 17th June was 32.7C and not as hot as the GFS suggested.  Hopefully the same will be true next week.

[JayAlmeida]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

But those higher temps were based on uppers of 22-24C, in reality the 20C isotherm just scraped the south coast. 

 

Just now, Don said:

Yes, you are correct, the highest temperature recorded on the 17th June was 32.7C and not as hot as the GFS suggested.  Hopefully the same will be true next week.

The uppers make a huge difference and maybe the GFS tends to be a little too optimistic in that regard.

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 0z ensemble mean is pretty fantastic actually for summer fans, especially for the south, couldn’t really ask for better summer weather! ️  

 

[MattStoke]

31 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

 

The uppers make a huge difference and maybe the GFS tends to be a little too optimistic in that regard.

GFS had the plume making more inroads into the U.K. than ended up occurring, so it wasn’t that it just had surface temperatures too high but that it had the plume too strong. It has always been the case that projected plumes often end up just missing the U.K. so I don’t think it’s anything to do with any changes to the GFS modelling.

Edited July 6, 2022 by MattStoke

[Frosty.]

I appreciate that the mean is a very broad brush approach, ergo, lacks the finer details but the GEFS 6z is painting a very summery picture, at least across the southern half / third of the u k…. to around or just beyond mid July?!!!…I’m hoping that the north sees some summery weather this time around rather than just the south!!! ️…or is that too much to ask…hmmm?  

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by jon snow

[Don]

49 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

 

The uppers make a huge difference and maybe the GFS tends to be a little too optimistic in that regard.

Well, I hope so!!

[Frosty.]

Just a quick mention about the GEM 0z mean..it’s pretty much a GEM !!  
Hopefully the 12z runs will be full of joy too!  

[Guest]

P29 goes for 44C

 

[Howie]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

P29 goes for 44C

 

Utterly ridiculous

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Next weekend keeps cropping up with these crazy temperatures.

Is this the time to mention the GFS has historically been as much as 4C too low on maximum charts? Perhaps this has been corrected for the coming summer, if not... 

When it's done this in the past it tends to be something like a 28C becoming a 32C. I don't think we can reasonably expect the same to be true when temperatures are widely projected to be in the high 30s as such temperatures becomes much harder to sustain and there's more scope for things to 'go wrong'.

[FetchCB]

Ground in Europe and UK becoming Very dry probably influencing the high temps being forecasted ( 1st as at 26/6 2nd as at 6/7)

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

P29 goes for 44C

 

The new hottest (main) computer run ever, for about the dozenth time in the past week.

[mb018538]

Met office now even mention the possibility of extreme heat in the latest 10 dayer. 

[fellmike]

36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The new hottest (main) computer run ever, for about the dozenth time in the past week.

I assume then that rules out any snow!!!!