Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[mb018538]

Look at the day 7 00z charts from GFS/UKMO/GEM. Wildly different.



Still plenty of heat to be found. GEM and ECM have multiple days above 30c from Monday onwards:



Looks fantastic to me. Not sure why people are getting worried.....the best model is consistently showing a noteworthy spell of heat.



 

Edited July 6, 2022 by mb018538

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM continues to straddle between the two other solutions, it has a stronger jet like the GFS, but it also keeps high pressure far enough north to keep most fine and dry. Fair to say it doesn’t  look like either the GFS or UKMO.

UKMO/ECM/GFS

      

 

Sort of a half way house solution. No real consistency on handling those Atlantic lows either with the GFS one showing low pressure close to the north.

The upcoming day 10 chart is going to be very hot again I suspect from the ECM.

There we go…

Edited July 6, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm 00z!hot throughout!!

Ecm has been showing something inbetween both gfs and ukmo for a few days now!!

[minus10]

Noticeable move south of what is quite a strong jet on gfs0z compared with 18z..

So the 6z then......

[MattStoke]

Plume attempt at the end of the ECM, with the 20’C 850hpa isotherm making inroads into the U.K. Around the timeframe in which the GFS had been toying with the plume idea.

[Nigelapplewhit4]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Fantastic ecm 00z!hot throughout!!

Ecm has been showing something inbetween both gfs and ukmo for a few days now!!

The CFS is showing High Pressure dominant for the next two weeks - first week to the west of the UK. second week anchored over the Bay of Biscay/NW France.  Third week it drifts over Eastern Europe with trough to the west of Ireland - could this allow southerly airflow? Above average temps for the next six weeks though to varying degress.  

 

 

[Frosty.]

Generally speaking, the GEFS 0z mean looks pretty good to me, throughout!!…high pressure or at least ridging is dominant and it warms up, especially further south, there’s also some plume potential at various stages during the next 16 days!…all in all, very satisfactory for pretty much the height of summer, much better than staring down the barrel at a cool cyclonic damp squib! ️  

 

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Fantastic ecm 00z!hot throughout!!

30c plus all week. Friday looks hottest with 32c plus:



We can't see the Saturday temperature chart sadly, but with the 20c line into the south on the back of a week of 30c plus, then you'd say 36-38c would be quite likely!

[Singularity]

GFS is most progressive with a low heading north from the eastern Med. This brings it far north enough soon enough to be picked up by the polar jet stream, which causes the Atlantic trough to change orientation more toward west-east than southwest-northeast.  Hence we see a gradual cooling by westerlies instead of recirculating heat before a potential high-end plume event.

Other modelling has a slower and/or weaker low from the Med. that stays independent of the polar jet.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 hours ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

Thanks for posting the GEM 00z - my hopes are being restored!. 

the 00z gefs ensembles board is still showing plenty of postage stamps options with mid to high 30s nationwide..  The control run is showing 36C to 39C nationwide for four days on the trot from the 17th.. I just don't see any downgrades and we're still 10 days away so i wont take either op or control run as the gospel nailed down weather forecast just yet

[MattStoke]

The GFS control might be the most extreme prolonged plume of all time that would break just about every U.K. high temperature record.

Edited July 6, 2022 by MattStoke

[summer blizzard]

UKMO aside, the last 5 runs have seen movement towards more progressive solutions and binned the northerly solutions. 
 

GFS0z as noted is extremely aggressive and simply flattens the high by day 7. 

 

Euro0z instead has the Azores Low hang about long enough that it gets picked up around day 9/10 resulting in a plume as it comes north.

Edited July 6, 2022 by summer blizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Scary top one! 40 degrees over me

[Stav]

I lived in the Middle East years ago where it is regularly 40C or more. It is however, air-conditioned in home, car, office and shops. I do not want those temperatures here in the UK - we are not equipped to deal with them, and they will certainly lead to illness and death. I am not sure why some people are egging them on - is it some weird satisfaction at seeing records broken? I am happy with nice, warm UK summer days, not Middle Eastern style heat.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Gfs 6z, still not having it. Going the same way as the 0z Op. Imo we need to be back on track for the 12z, as little doubts are starting to set in. Let's hope its at the bottom end of the ens again.

[Lukesluckybunch]

20 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Gfs 6z, still not having it. Going the same way as the 0z Op. Imo we need to be back on track for the 12z, as little doubts are starting to set in. Let's hope its at the bottom end of the ens again.

yes that midweek trough is a problem,it seems to want to move down at least for the north of the country...its very different from the ECM...but if this 6z run is the worse possible outcome,then are in a good place.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[Howie]

I think the GFS has latched on to a spoiler unfortunately...

[JayAlmeida]

Plume potential flattened by the model that first picked up on the trend. The GFS is having a massive wobble today.

[sheikhy]

Yup gfs not letting go!!!big moment on the 12zs cos if the gfs is right i think we can forget about the extreme temps for the time being at the very least!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Gfs 6z, still not having it. Going the same way as the 0z Op. Imo we need to be back on track for the 12z, as little doubts are starting to set in. Let's hope its at the bottom end of the ens again.

This is the big problem with GFS and its running 4 times daily. You will find it very often finds different solutions throughout the year 4 times a day. It's only when you view all the ens and the mean that you find a tad more consistency! It's also brilliant at finding the correct solution before other models then dropping the idea when the other main models get onboard!

The problem with some on here is that they over analyse every op run then jump the gun with downgrades are on the way before viewing all the other data. I'm sure some just can't wait to find a heatwave in the making on the way,then go out of there way to find a way of it going wrong.....its that Winter mentality all over again.

Overall the data thus morning looks solid...The ECM is solid and the ens look fine...some subtle hints of perhaps an encroachment from the North at times towards mid month,but a quick rebound in Heights looks plausible also. The extended ens still show pressure on the High side there is scatter as you would expect with so many members,and that ongoing risk of poorer conditions towards the NW remains a thorn in there sides!

But overall I think further South could be set for quite a lot of summary conditions right through till months end.

[Josh Rubio]

27 minutes ago, Stav said:

I lived in the Middle East years ago where it is regularly 40C or more. It is however, air-conditioned in home, car, office and shops. I do not want those temperatures here in the UK - we are not equipped to deal with them, and they will certainly lead to illness and death. I am not sure why some people are egging them on - is it some weird satisfaction at seeing records broken? I am happy with nice, warm UK summer days, not Middle Eastern style heat.

Exactly this. I’m not sure why people are ramping/getting excited over 35+ degree charts and wishing it comes into fruition. We just wouldn’t able to cope. This isn’t the same as going abroad on holiday, people. Our buildings and infrastructure aren’t used to this sort of heat. 

[JayAlmeida]

Sorry guys I spoke too soon...

Edited July 6, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Nigelapplewhit4]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

This is the big problem with GFS and its running 4 times daily. You will find it very often finds different solutions throughout the year 4 times a day. It's only when you view all the ens and the mean that you find a tad more consistency! It's also brilliant at finding the correct solution before other models then dropping the idea when the other main models get onboard!

The problem with some on here is that they over analyse every op run then jump the gun with downgrades are on the way before viewing all the other data. I'm sure some just can't wait to find a heatwave in the making on the way,then go out of there way to find a way of it going wrong.....its that Winter mentality all over again.

Overall the data thus morning looks solid...The ECM is solid and the ens look fine...some subtle hints of perhaps an encroachment from the North at times towards mid month,but a quick rebound in Heights looks plausible also. The extended ens still show pressure on the High side there is scatter as you would expect with so many members,and that ongoing risk of poorer conditions towards the NW remains a thorn in there sides!

But overall I think further South could be set for quite a lot of summary conditions right through till months end.

Looks like talk of a heatwave was wide of the mark - look at the 06z from the GFS coming out now! It might be a bit warmer than normal for those in the UK looking to live in the SE corner but look at the Northerly coming on Wednesday next week. Icelandic trough making its move south/south east and the Azores high retrogresses well into the Atlantic..  There is a slight attempt for the ridge to push back into the SW approaches. An extremely powerful jet blasts across Northern Europe next week.  

Edited July 6, 2022 by Nigelapplewhit4

[dryfie]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

The GFS control might be the most extreme prolonged plume of all time that would break just about every U.K. high temperature record.

If these verify then we are looking at threatening a new Scottish all time record in the Borders.  Is Greystoke still open?

[Captain Shortwave]

21 minutes ago, Howie said:

I think the GFS has latched on to a spoiler unfortunately...

The low is on all of the model outputs, the only difference is that every other model moves this swiftly north east towards Scandinavia whilst the GFS decides it is going to stall in one place for several days on the 06z it was Iceland, on the 00z it was further east. If the cyclogenisis doesn’t happen, then the low will be over a thousand miles away from where it is currently being modelled at the end of week 1.

Heh another stupidly hot plume in the low resolution.

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Captain Shortwave