Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Guest]

A poorer Ops run but does seem to out of kilter with its own ensembles.

 

GEM having absolutely none of hit. Hot all the way. 
 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Alderc

[ChannelThunder]

UKMO and GEM look like they're gearing up to go plumey

[Earthshine]

Wonder if this might end up being an event where we absolutely obliterate all time temperature records.  It's happened in many places in recent years where record have been broken by as much as 5°C.  Slightly concerned as I'm near Poitiers, France where close to 40°C was recorded as recently as last month so those suggestions of 47°C seem a bit much

[January Snowstorm]

ECM more in line with gfs with a lot of energy running over the top at 144

Certainly for Western areas things have backed away from high pressure taking control, rather more persistent ridging with the Southeast remaining warm/hot

[January Snowstorm]

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM more in line with gfs with a lot of energy running over the top at 144

Certainly for Western areas things have backed away from high pressure taking control, rather more persistent ridging with the Southeast remaining warm/hot

Edit: Buckles but then builds back the high at 192, in what looks more sustained and v warm

[mb018538]

ECM is very hot again tonight…

27-28c Sunday 

30c Monday

32c Tuesday 

33c Wednesday 

33c Thursday 

Should also add this is raw data…which we all know can be 1-2c too low. Given how bone dry the ground is, I think we could easily add a bit on. Certainly looks conducive towards 35c with upper air temps of 16-17c.

 

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by mb018538

[sheikhy]

Gfs can do one!!what an absolute beast of an ecm!!!!!ukmo on the same page as well!!!

[Nigelapplewhit4]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs can do one!!what an absolute beast of an ecm!!!!!ukmo on the same page as well!!!

I normally trust and rely on  GFS as the model i analyse ever six hours - perhaps i should look at ECMWF and UK Met office models instead!  No heat in the West in this set up Horrible set up at midnight on the 14th July. GFS is having a wobble about mid week heat!  A chilly start to Saturday 16th July with only the extreme south of England holding on to 25 degrees with only 15-17 in the North of England and Wales.  I agree that GFS can go and do one ! 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Nigelapplewhit4

[mb018538]

Add Friday to the list of 32c plus on the ecm too. 5 days in a row above 30c. Also notice that meandering feature around the Azores. Helping to funnel the warmer air up to the UK. It’s this that could possibly bring the supercharged furnace air our way if it ends up in the correct location.

Just now, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

I normally trust and rely on  GFS as the model i analyse ever six hours - perhaps i should look at ECMWF and UK Met office models instead!  No heat in the West in this set up. 

GFS is often the 4th best model now (ECM best, followed by UKMO and then GEM). I’d always trust the ecm more than any of the others, the verification stats prove over and over again it’s consistently the best.

Edited July 5, 2022 by mb018538

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Anyone know what kind of temps for Manchester to expect from the latest ECM and MET? Hope we're not going to be stuck in the low 20s under cloud,  while London has days of 30C plus.

 

GFS is out on its own.

[Staffmoorlands]

Just now, 38.7°C said:

Anyone know what kind of temps for Manchester to expect from the latest ECM and MET? Hope we're not going to be stuck in the low 20s under cloud,  while London has days of 30C plus.

 

GFS is out on its own.

20-23c predicted for early next week. Should be some sunshine for a time 

[kold weather]

GFS OP is very progressive, a few of those types of runs showed up in the 06z ensembles earlier BUT even amongst those that run would be right up there as one of the fastest/worst for heat.

Anyways for now a heatwave of some kind is increasingly possible and many ensemble runs from the 12z really ramp up the length as well this evening.

PS P6 goes for a nice little 42c...

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM is certainly hot in the south. What was eye-catching again was how far north the jetstream is across a large section of the globe, in particular the Atlantic and into Europe. That seems to be typical of some of the classic heatwave type events. 

That low near the Azores needs watching, some of the ensembles manage get this to interact with a passing Atlantic trough with quite a result. Some of the GEM ens are really something.

Another one for the 40C+ pot; 38C showing on the 18th and even more widespread on the 19th.

   

I don't think there are many times that the 20C isotherm has covered most of the UK in any run. Worth noting that many ensembles get the 20C isotherm to parts of the UK at some point.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[kold weather]

ECM ensembles markedly warmer tonight, many runs going north of 34C, and there are a fair number well north of 36c. Certainly the warmest overall set of ECM ensembles I've ever seen (and there were some monsters from back in Aug 2020).

1 ensemble member reaches 40c btw.

Edited July 5, 2022 by kold weather

[Frosty.]

Despite this being from the 0z, I always think it’s important to have the JMA onboard! Arigatou… ️ 

 

[Scorcher]

52 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Anyone know what kind of temps for Manchester to expect from the latest ECM and MET? Hope we're not going to be stuck in the low 20s under cloud,  while London has days of 30C plus.

 

GFS is out on its own.

 

51 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

20-23c predicted for early next week. Should be some sunshine for a time 

This is not a concern now after Sunday with the high moving over the UK. We will certainly do a lot better than 23C in the Manchester area on Monday and Tuesday. GFS is showing 26C for Monday for Manchester (probably add a degree or two onto that as usual) and the ECM looks warmer than that.  28C is being shown for Tuesday as well. It sometimes takes the Met Office forecast a while to catch up.

[Don]

3 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I've only just noticed Don have you moved location good man?

I have Matt, I moved to Shropshire in April and a what great part of the world it is! 

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean suggests the majority of the u k will become very summery / anticyclonic, especially the south and probably just the far north missing out.. really great mean though in the height of summer, it’s really exciting  
 

[Don]

27 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles markedly warmer tonight, many runs going north of 34C, and there are a fair number well north of 36c. Certainly the warmest overall set of ECM ensembles I've ever seen (and there were some monsters from back in Aug 2020).

1 ensemble member reaches 40c btw.

Yes I think we are entering unchartered territory now with the UK temperature potential.  With the models showing extreme outcomes for many days, the odds must be shortening that the July 2019 record will fall in the next couple of weeks?!  I found the August 2020 heatwave quite insufferable, so not looking forward to the next few weeks at all!!

Edited July 5, 2022 by Don

[minus10]

Yes looking at the last few frames of the ecm 12z the low near the azores appears to be drifting north...if that continues as a trend if could...could shunt even hotter air our way...however still lot of uncertainty..

I think what is faily certain now is that for at least the se half of uk and maybe other areas a considerable warm up will occur...how warm? ...more runs needed as ever...but with a very warm set of ecm ens then  it does seem at the moment the direction of travel.....tip: keep your pots and vegetables watered if you can as they dry out incredibly quickley in this dry and increasingly warm weather...

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is very hot again tonight…

27-28c Sunday 

30c Monday

32c Tuesday 

33c Wednesday 

33c Thursday 

Should also add this is raw data…which we all know can be 1-2c too low. Given how bone dry the ground is, I think we could easily add a bit on. Certainly looks conducive towards 35c with upper air temps of 16-17c.

 

 

And a lot of ensembles equally hot next week. Not many that can't be called "hot" for the south.

30 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles markedly warmer tonight, many runs going north of 34C, and there are a fair number well north of 36c. Certainly the warmest overall set of ECM ensembles I've ever seen (and there were some monsters from back in Aug 2020).

1 ensemble member reaches 40c btw.

The number of runs pushing 40C recently has just been bonkers.

[SqueakheartLW]

If GFS 12z P06 comes off for the 18th then for eastern England residents it is time to emigrate to a cooler location in Europe since we are the hottest part of all of Europe, tied with Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Southern Spain and areas near the Black Sea. We are much hotter than most of Europe, even most areas to our south too.

We even manage to get the 26C 850hpa isotherm into southern UK at around 1am. Imagine what those 2m maxes would show if this happens 12 hours later.

Those poor people in W Ireland and NW Scotland who miss out on the 20C isotherm.

[Singularity]

So GFS has all but struck out alone… it’s going to look either excellent or tragic soon! 

Just realised the ECM 12z has 20*C 850s approaching from the southwest as of D10… not something I can ever recall seeing before!

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Those poor people in W Ireland and NW Scotland who miss out on the 20C isotherm.

I would rather be there than suffer the heat in the south and east of England!

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I would rather be there than suffer the heat in the south and east of England!

Just seen an even hotter member. This one is from GEM 12z. It's P13 and has the highest 2m max I have ever seen modelled for Scunthorpe

It gets up to 38.8C on the 19th which smashes the previous modelled high from a few days ago.

This extreme heat scenario keeps showing up in several runs and members, all for around the same time period between 17th and 19th July.