Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[ITSY]

Here we go again. 40 for the south, and at 8pm too. 

[Iceman2606]

For god sake GFS 18z not again!

Edited July 4, 2022 by Iceman2606

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

For god sake GFS 18z not again!

Has 31C in places at 3am, an off the scale run. Extremely unlikely of course but the fact that models are throwing at these solutions shows that these crazy hot spells in this warming climate are possible. Heck, even Lytton in Canada almost reached 50C last summer.

Unless the next 10 summers are devoid of plumes, I can see 40C being reached at some point.

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Here we go again. 40 for the south, and at 8pm too. 

Yep,the gfs showing the top 40 and i hope it's not a stuck record lol,...there would be some cracking thunderstorms if it came off though,thunderstruck just came in to my mind,...what a song

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

And Cornwall at 20c . 

[wimblettben]

27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep,the gfs showing the top 40 and i hope it's not a stuck record lol,...there would be some cracking thunderstorms if it came off though,thunderstruck just came in to my mind,...what a song

 

 

Although the temperatures wouldn't be pleasent, it would probably be very good in the fact that it would bring widespread thundery weather to a lot of places that have had a rubbish year so far.

[lassie23]

40c is of no use to anyone in the UK, unless you want to spend night and day barfing. Imagine the heat in London

[Frosty.]

I’m not greedy, I’ll take the Gfs 0z operational…all the way to the BANK    

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Really solid GFS run this morning with temperatures potentially reaching 30c+ from Sunday onwards thanks to the high drifting across the UK. The UKMO looks less keen and the GEM even less so with westerlies squashing the high southwards again.

Not sure how things will pan out, uncertainty over the position of the high for next week is still there, but obviously the route to something quite significant is still there this morning.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Really solid GFS run this morning with temperatures potentially reaching 30c+ from Sunday onwards thanks to the high drifting across the UK. The UKMO looks less keen and the GEM even less so with westerlies squashing the high southwards again.

Not sure how things will pan out, uncertainty over the position of the high for next week is still there, but obviously the route to something quite significant is still there this morning.

GEM was pretty much at the bottom of ensembles, and 850s were 5C lower than the mean. 
 

GFS was a great run, half of the ensembles now reach 20C in the coming two weeks. Probably the best set GFS ensembles since August 2020 IMO 

[mb018538]

Such a UK fax chart. We are the masters of getting 1030mb Highs building in with fronts draped all through. All that low pressure in Eastern Europe without a front in sight…

Edited July 5, 2022 by mb018538

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM a real improvement on recent runs,next week is now looking hot..with the hp right over the uk..little or no wind.30-35c? i wouldnt rule it out

[Frosty.]

This is clearly a slow burn …the really summery potential is next week but even the Ukmo 0z, although not as good as the Gfs / Ecm, really isn’t bad is it?  

Edited July 5, 2022 by jon snow

[sheikhy]

That is some serious ecm if heat is your thing!!!!thats gfs and ecm now on the same page!!!

[mb018538]

Just now, sheikhy said:

That is some serious ecm if heat is your thing!!!!thats gfs and ecm now on the same page!!!

Was just going to say….a very hot ECM with 30c+ every day from tue-thu next week  

[Scorcher]

37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Such a UK fax chart. We are the masters of getting 1030mb Highs building in with fronts draped all through. All that low pressure in Eastern Europe without a front in sight…

It's always the problem with the Azores High. Lots of Atlantic moisture around it, so unless it builds in fully, we can subject to these fronts and relentless cloud- especially further west with the NW wind.

 

That said, much better runs from the GFS and ECM this morning. I'm certainly less concerned than I was about missing out on the west side of the country now, with the high likely to drift into a more favourable position from Sunday onwards.

[Scorcher]

50 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GEM was pretty much at the bottom of ensembles, and 850s were 5C lower than the mean. 
 

GFS was a great run, half of the ensembles now reach 20C in the coming two weeks. Probably the best set GFS ensembles since August 2020 IMO 

That's a huge improvement in the mean overnight- looking more and more likely now that some notable heat is coming next week.

[Methuselah]

Well then, there could be one or two humdingers should this one come off:

    

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well then, there could be one or two humdingers should this one come off:

    

 

it would be a real sod and painful slap in the face if any heat wave failed to materialise and we end up with a trough especially now we've been taken this far down the garden path

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

it would be a real sod and painful slap in the face if any heat wave failed to materialise and we end up with a trough especially now we've been taken this far down the garden path

yes there are now some strong signals for some hot weather! at the very least temperatures will reach 25/26c in my opinion

[Don]

30 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

it would be a real sod and painful slap in the face if any heat wave failed to materialise and we end up with a trough especially now we've been taken this far down the garden path

It's happens virtually every year in winter!!  However, probably odds on for hot weather next week, hopefully not too extreme.

[Frosty.]

Apart from the far north, the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean turns into a HUMDINGER.. !!! ️
 

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS0z today is a more complex solution but not difficult to achieve. Low number 2 fails to pick up the Azores Low but forms a shortwave which picks it up instead.

The Euro is the most alarming option on the table for those of us ready for summer to end because it is a realistic solution and probably second favourite. Low number 2 fails to pick up the Azores Low, the Azores Low then supports a high to its north/northeast near the U.K. 

[Staffmoorlands]

Met office Fax charts paint a familiar picture of high pressure and occluded fronts. Basically, if it’s cloudy and rainy today like most of the NW, it’s going to be the same until at least 120hrs away.

[Lukesluckybunch]

awaiting the 6z to unfold..lets see if we can get the high,in a favourable position ideally over us,then eventually moving eastward..with a chance to pull up some of that sweltering air from the south!