Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Don]

Just now, MattStoke said:

GFS seems to have frozen at +156 hours.

What literally?!  Has got to be a cold outlier, surely?!  

[Lukesluckybunch]

GFS 12z is absolute fantastic,temps mid 20's later this week and into weekend..the following showing maxs of 30+!

[minus 9]

Hope so currently sat I  garden with me winter coat on

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12z turns into a very good run for the majority of the u k with high pressure in the ascendancy, I think next weekend is shaping up nicely! ️

 

 

Edited July 2, 2022 by jon snow

[Iceman2606]

GFS 12z back in the oven again

[Scorcher]

41 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

It’s been pretty average though, apart from the odd day but I’m grateful that my water butt is full so will see me through a couple weeks so hoping it is dry…hope to god July and august are better though, can’t cope with another sub standard summer like last year. 
I’d be surprised if the June statistics don’t show that it’s been slightly above average rainfall and slightly below average sunshine, by no means poor but average for sure bar that brief heat period where we reached 32c in Exeter (33.5 is our record.)

I think I’m jaded though as the last 3 weekends including this one have been either cloudy or rain, any sun has been in the working week and would you believe next weekend looks beautiful and I’m working

It's certainly been below average rainfall when averaged across England. Even around here we only had 39mm in June- well below average, and we weren't one of the driest areas by any means. Sunshine was very slightly above average for these parts as well.

[MattStoke]

27 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

GFS 12z is absolute fantastic,temps mid 20's later this week and into weekend..the following showing maxs of 30+!

And rather toasty out in far FI  

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

GFS 12z back in the oven again

Can’t even say it’s a one off either. Multiple runs have shown this the last couple of days.

What does need sorting out are the temps for next week. All models showing different things!

[Don]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Can’t even say it’s a one off either. Multiple runs have shown this the last couple of days.

What does need sorting out are the temps for next week. All models showing different things!

Yes, the GFS has been toying with the extreme heat option on and off for a number of days now!

[Frosty.]

Well, it’s officially a HOT topic… …can we make it hotter?….. !…yes we can…and remember, the Gfs underestimates maxima.. …and these are noon temps… …!!! ️ 

Edited July 2, 2022 by jon snow

[SqueakheartLW]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, the GFS has been toying with the extreme heat option on and off for a number of days now!

GFS usually first to pick up a possible trend before dropping it then bringing it back closer to the time. It could be possible that another 25th July 2019 is on the way, maybe even the record of 38.7C could fall again so soon after the last time.

[minus10]

Yes gfs12z developing that low over the canary islands much more than the 6z so that it becomes a major player in pumping in hot air from the se..6z first

Splitting the hp in the process...one to watch in future runs....

[SqueakheartLW]

It seems the extreme heat option is gaining some traction at the moment. Have seen several runs lately that have 2m temps around or even above the 35C range.

Today's GFS Extended - P05

That is the most toasty one I have seen so far for Scunthorpe at 36.7C and would be an all time record for Scunthorpe by a decent margin.

Yesterday's GFS 18z - P28

 

This one has an even more toasty member at 37.4C and puts P05 from the extended into cool in comparison mode. If this came off then with a 37.4C in Scunthorpe a 40C+ must be getting modelled somewhere else surely.

Today's GFS 00z - P02

 

It seems today's GFS 00z is a bit of a downgrade for the most extreme heat with only 34.5C showing for Scunthorpe on P02 but still that is a very high temperature for my part of the UK.

Today's GFS 06z - P28

A tiny upgrade to the heat for the 06z with 34.7C showing this time around, very close to the 35C+ range still. I will be looking to see what extreme heat members come out on the 12z.

Today's GEM 00z - P13

 

It would seem even the GEM is coming out to play with the extreme heat game too and on this run 35.6C is showing on P13.

Today's ECM 00z - P19

P19 is the hottest member here at 32.5C, quite mild compared with the other 2 models. Although ECM 00z is still showing the heat theme it isn't as extreme with it as either GFS or GEM. It remains to be seen if ECM follows suit with the other 2 or they both back down from the extreme heat and come back with a more typical heat in the low 30'sC rather than these extreme upper 30'sC or even 40C.

[Weather-history]

That would be a scorcher of a St Swithins if this came off

 

[TwisterGirl81]

54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It's certainly been below average rainfall when averaged across England. Even around here we only had 39mm in June- well below average, and we weren't one of the driest areas by any means. Sunshine was very slightly above average for these parts as well.

Not for the south west, has to be near average, south east are more likely below average.

I’ll check and see if met office have released their monthly figures 

[Polar Maritime]

Let's please try and keep to model discussion, The Summer thread are more apt for some posts. Thanks all

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

It's certainly been below average rainfall when averaged across England. Even around here we only had 39mm in June- well below average, and we weren't one of the driest areas by any means. Sunshine was very slightly above average for these parts as well.

Here’s the figures for June from met office, for where I am in exeter temperature slightly above, probably pushed above by the brief scrotching heatwave we had, rainfall and sunshine amounts either slightly below or slightly over but I see where you’re from it’s been under for rain fall and over for sun but you are from the north….June has been kinda meh hopefully july and august and hopefully September deliver the goods ⛈ 

Very much an East/West and east seemed to have faired better, makes a change from south/north

Edited July 2, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM looking nice here at 144 quite a strong cell of hp moving in for end of week..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ruddy wonderful gang.. Again the Gem is a thing of lustrous beauty!

One caution is those lower Heights anchored to the NW could give those areas a problem at times! And we also notice that little cut off low around the canaries,this could be worth watching for big temperature spikes moving forward.

I bid you all a sterling Weekend...if your still waiting for the sun and something warmer next week will begin to improve...its gonna be a while longer before further NW improves but I have confidence you will finally get there.

Now hit that treadmill ready for  

Edited July 2, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM not quite as good as this mornings,the hp not quite as strong in later frames and therefore temperatures not as high

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

GFS usually first to pick up a possible trend before dropping it then bringing it back closer to the time. It could be possible that another 25th July 2019 is on the way, maybe even the record of 38.7C could fall again so soon after the last time.

Indeed it does and another 25th July 2019 (or hotter) is very possible.  I can hear the jaws theme tune starting! 

[Portsmouth Sun]

Ebbs and flows over the next week regarding a warm up. The next seven days look quite stable, always the best of the temps and sun in the south due to a NW breeze.  The following week could bring something special, more than one model has hinted at this, but certainly not all, so no need for histrionics. For something memorable to occur in the UK all the building blocks have to fall correctly and many people continue to be lead up the garden path, it's like believing everything you read in the Sun or Mail.   Interesting times ahead, certainly a chance of something more impressive than todays 22c with sunny spells. 

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM not quite as good as this mornings,the hp not quite as strong in later frames and therefore temperatures not as high

 

850s of +10-+15C widespread. 

If that's not Summer, I don't know what is.

[viking_smb]

8 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well then, the GFS 06Z is quite tolerable, I think: maybe 30s but not 40s: Does Boris Johnson ever lie!?

    

    

    

    

But extreme heat is always possible. Are those Aesop's records from the 1930s public?

guys keep politics off this please.

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 12z operational still looks fantastic to me for the majority beyond the next few days or so and especially later next week and into the following week!, a marked change / improvement  compared to the current mixed conditions across the u k! ️ 

Edited July 2, 2022 by jon snow