Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Kentspur]

5 hours ago, Iceman2606 said:

Calm yourself GFS!

Absolutely.love the hottest day of the year to be on my birthday 18z a shade down but still hot and for those into folklore dont forget its also the famous St swithuns Day. Last 30+bday I had was on the last World cup footy finals day was 32c here this would top that!

[mathematician]

11 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

well.... you dont see this very often!...lol

Wednesday 13th...

 

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by mathematician

[mathematician]

10 hours ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

The rest of Europe manage to cope, even Scandinavia, I do not see a problem.  However it is a massive outlier, so 99.9% sure it will not come off.

Manage to cope how? There are massive problems everywhere in Europe because of this kind of heat.

 

Besides, most of our houses are not build to cope with temperatures that exceed 30 degrees. They are built to trap the heat inside, because it's usually cold here, and they become like greenhouses.

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, mathematician said:

 

Remarkable how the GFS is consistently throwing out extreme heatwave options for D13-D16 at the moment. That's not to say it will happen, but it does seem the end result of every run right now!

[clark3r]

Insane heat again FI, the country would not be able to cope if that happened, 27 at night as a min, 35 degrees at 09.00 am then prob touching 40 degrees in the day, it’s deep in Fi, surely it won’t happen and if it is a trend It will be watered down by several degrees, but also to note there has been insane heat in the continent, also very dry weather, so has to be a higher than normal chance of extreme heat this summer. 

[SteveB]

29 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Insane heat again FI, the country would not be able to cope if that happened, 27 at night as a min, 35 degrees at 09.00 am then prob touching 40 degrees in the day, it’s deep in Fi, surely it won’t happen and if it is a trend It will be watered down by several degrees, but also to note there has been insane heat in the continent, also very dry weather, so has to be a higher than normal chance of extreme heat this summer. 

Usually in these situations, there will be a warm spell but nothing like GFS is predicting, and the duration of the hot spell will shorten as well

 

2-3 days of high 20's low 30's is probably how it will pan out.

[FetchCB]

7 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Usually in these situations, there will be a warm spell but nothing like GFS is predicting, and the duration of the hot spell will shorten as well

 

2-3 days of high 20's low 30's is probably how it will pan out.

Usually =in the past? 

Thing is when you look at the continent the past is not a good indicator of the future. The heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more intense. 

Looking at the GFS charts for Day 13-16 they have a whiff of Aug 2003 about them and they will tap into the heat. 

The sun is strong at this time of year and with the more intense heat on the continent I'm not sure usual is a term that can be applied to heatwaves any more 

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Usually =in the past? 

Thing is when you look at the continent the past is not a good indicator of the future. The heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more intense. 

Looking at the GFS charts for Day 13-16 they have a whiff of Aug 2003 about them and they will tap into the heat. 

The sun is strong at this time of year and with the more intense heat on the continent I'm not sure usual is a term that can be applied to heatwaves any more 

With warmer than average sea surface temperatures and pretty dry ground too.

[bluearmy]

that high next week drifting in looks impressive 

When was the last time we had a 1032mb+ surface high stick around in summer across the U.K. ??  From recollection they usually move to our east and fail to retain their slp. 
 

of course this one may well not make it quite far enough east but indications growing that it will 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Scary chart! 30 degrees here is rare

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Usually in these situations, there will be a warm spell but nothing like GFS is predicting, and the duration of the hot spell will shorten as well

 

2-3 days of high 20's low 30's is probably how it will pan out.

I think the evolution shown in the later stages of recent GFS runs, including the 0z today, is entirely plausible - which is not to say it will happen.  The big high pressure moving in from the west is nailed on, then there seems a growing trend for this to increase its influence on the UK specifically, allowing home grown warmth and heat, and then some instability causes the high to split allowing a plume from the south to engage around the west flank of the portion of the high remaining to our east.  

We saw earlier in June the effect of a brief plume after average conditions in the UK.  This time, the heat would be in place, hottest time of year, high SSTs in place - I think records could be broken in the next few weeks.  Just look at the uppers at T366 on the 0z:

 

I think that’s +22C over most of the south!

[Singularity]

I’ve never seen GFS predict over 36*C three runs in a row at a fortnight’s lead time before… truly extraordinary in itself.

The heatwave signal is very strong but, as always at the 7+ day lead times, depends on some assumptions regarding tropical forcing & how cleanly weather patterns respond.

Of particular importance is the persistence of a +AO and +sNAO. ECM 00z cast a shadow of uncertainty at D10 but I think there’s just about enough eastward momentum to the western N Atlantic trough that the ridge would be refocused eastward again. Still, it’s enough to give pause for thought. The minority cluster in the EPS keeps high pressure focused over or just west of the UK - warm or very warm, maybe hot at times, but not extreme temp-wise.

[minus10]

55 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Scary chart! 30 degrees here is rare

Almost 'white hot' in France...43 deg in places...although fi the fact that it is being shown at all I think is indication that the climate is becoming more extreme....Japan is experiencing its worst heatwave since 1875!. 

The gfes....

Lets hope its just the gfs op being...well...gfs op but the mean is certainly warming up. As others have said the ingredients are there...high sst's, mid summer, dry ground...even the rain i was hoping for last night didnt happen. There doesnt seem to be meaningful frontal rain here very often now with reliance on unreliable showers to provide any useful rainfull..

[Paul]

25 minutes ago, minus10 said:

 

The gfes....

 

Have updated the scale on these from the 6z, so if there's another hot run it shouldn't be off the top of it. 

[Don]

39 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Almost 'white hot' in France...43 deg in places...although fi the fact that it is being shown at all I think is indication that the climate is becoming more extreme....Japan is experiencing its worst heatwave since 1875!. 

The gfes....

Lets hope its just the gfs op being...well...gfs op but the mean is certainly warming up. As others have said the ingredients are there...high sst's, mid summer, dry ground...even the rain i was hoping for last night didnt happen. There doesnt seem to be meaningful frontal rain here very often now with reliance on unreliable showers to provide any useful rainfull..

Isn't this how the heat spike at the end of June 2019 was first picked up with the GFS op off the scale?  Turned out to be near the mark.....

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I think the evolution shown in the later stages of recent GFS runs, including the 0z today, is entirely plausible - which is not to say it will happen.  The big high pressure moving in from the west is nailed on, then there seems a growing trend for this to increase its influence on the UK specifically, allowing home grown warmth and heat, and then some instability causes the high to split allowing a plume from the south to engage around the west flank of the portion of the high remaining to our east.  

We saw earlier in June the effect of a brief plume after average conditions in the UK.  This time, the heat would be in place, hottest time of year, high SSTs in place - I think records could be broken in the next few weeks.  Just look at the uppers at T366 on the 0z:

 

I think that’s +22C over most of the south!

It's plausible just like the bitter artic freezes the models predict in winter. In reality, the models have picked up a signal for rise in temperatures in a 10 days time but it's likely this will be modified as we get nearer.

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

Isn't this how the heat spike at the end of June 2019 was first picked up with the GFS op off the scale?  Turned out to be near the mark.....

Indeed it was, Don. I, like many, may have been too quick in fingering the IOD as the cause of 2019's heat spikes? So, guessing once again, the 'new' GFS must be picking up on developments elsewhere -- North Africa and the Mediterranean perhaps?

Edited June 30, 2022 by Ed Stone

[northwestsnow]

Broadly speaking the first half of July looks warm and settled away from the NW ,hopefully the warmth can encompass all the UK as he head into week two.

EC mean looks solid on the settled theme out to the 10th..

Ever so slight signal of the High retreating south by day 10 which would lend support to  Matt Hugo's musings of a possible regime  change second half of July .Be interesting to see if eps are sniffing out anything longer term.

For those further south I'm going to say make the most of any shower you might see today ,because you are very unlikely to see any rain  for the next 10 days minimum,possibly longer.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

59 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed it was, Don. I, like many, may have been too quick in fingering the IOD as the cause of 2019's heat spikes? So, guessing once again, the 'new' GFS must be picking up on developments elsewhere -- North Africa and the Mediterranean perhaps?

IIRC the forecasters looking at last summer's 'Heat-dome' over the Pacific NW 'played down' the temps the models were showing thinking them 'unbelievable' only for the Models to be proven right?

 

By mid week we should have a better idea how things are looking,,,,,,

[Snowy L]

If the models are right with a home grown heat gradually building then a shift east to tap into an already baking hot mainland Europe, then I see no reason why the record shouldn't go. Not saying it will happen, but if that pressure scenario described plays out then why would the temperatures being shown be unlikely ? France being incredibly hot has a big bearing on what happens to us should winds turn southerly surely? That's a big factor in favour of record breaking temperatures for this summer. I hope it doesn't happen by the way, the perfect summer is a UK high right over the middle of the UK, 25-30C with low humidity is more than enough.

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

If the models are right with a home grown heat gradually building then a shift east to tap into an already baking hot mainland Europe, then I see no reason why the record shouldn't go. Not saying it will happen, but if that pressure scenario described plays out then why would the temperatures being shown be unlikely ? France being incredibly hot has a big bearing on what happens to us should winds turn southerly surely? That's a big factor in favour of record breaking temperatures for this summer. I hope it doesn't happen by the way, the perfect summer is a UK high right over the middle of the UK, 25-30C with low humidity is more than enough.

It is a very likely scenario when looking at the facts. Europe is bone dry, this can only increase the heat. Much of the UK is bone dry, and where it isn't, it will be after 10 days of Azores high, with some areas by then likely to be 2018 dry. If the pressure scenario fell into place, which it often does for a time during mid summer, then we can realistically expect some very high temperatures.

 

I first became aware of the potential for an extreme heatwave back in the European heatwave in May. That's when I learned of the widespread drought affecting many areas. 

 

Time for a sweepstake? First 40c in UK?

 

 

[JayAlmeida]

GFS 06z setting up the 14th July as a possible end to the festivities with Troughy McTrough making a comeback. Well out in FI So just as dubious as the hellacious outlook from the 00z.

On the plus side I think there is a consensus that HP parks itself next weekend. 

Just have to put up with 5-7 days of dross until then. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

GFS 06z setting up the 14th July as a possible end to the festivities with Troughy McTrough making a comeback. Well out in FI So just as dubious as the hellacious outlook from the 00z.

On the plus side I think there is a consensus that HP parks itself next weekend. 

Just have to put up with 5-7 days of dross until then. 

I wouldn't be too sure yet!

I posted these RMM plots a couple of weeks ago when I was starting to flag that the MJO going through phase 4/5 may force a change in early July. Think these plots are a pretty good match with high pressure centred just west of the UK, which is what we'll see early next week.


There are some hints that this may cycle may continue round to phase 6 around mid month or just beyond.



Phase 6 towards the last 10 days of July corresponds to high pressure moving east across the UK towards Scandi. We all know a high based in this location usually leads to hot weather. Perhaps this could help to explain why we're seeing some of the hot runs we're seeing on recent GFS runs?




 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

While some start to talk about potential heat that could build I will keep a lid on it for now...but what I will say is the outlook is gathering momentum for something much more summary! Just check out GEM again with strong Heights right over us from next week and continuing for the rest of the run!

Dare I say it...dust down the barbies and oil the loungers....hand on heart I can see some records coming under threat during July...but for now I will keep a cool head.

Now let's all relax and have a nice crisp cool one.

A sterling evening too all of you.

Edited June 30, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[chapmanslade]

5 hours ago, richie3846 said:

It is a very likely scenario when looking at the facts. Europe is bone dry, this can only increase the heat. Much of the UK is bone dry, and where it isn't, it will be after 10 days of Azores high, with some areas by then likely to be 2018 dry. If the pressure scenario fell into place, which it often does for a time during mid summer, then we can realistically expect some very high temperatures.

 

I first became aware of the potential for an extreme heatwave back in the European heatwave in May. That's when I learned of the widespread drought affecting many areas. 

 

Time for a sweepstake? First 40c in UK?

 

 

To be fair France is far from bone dry. There has been a lot of rain there for the last couple of weeks. However the last heat spike there about 3 weeks ago was well picked up by the models (and ignored by some on here) from a good 10 days out. Since then there has been little to write home about with France being notably cool and wet, but once again a significant heat event is looking more and more likely. Sadly I will be in France around then and I can assure you 40C+ makes work very troublesome!

I think the models have been pretty good of late, unfortunately many on here get hung up on fine detail rather than looking at trends at 10 days out. There was somebody on here who modified the charts a while back to blur out the resolution with time which has always seemed a good idea to me where trends and broad patterns rather than detail are important