Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No way will it verify like that ! 
 

 

 

You’ll get to 17

Thanks !!!

* I don't believe it ( as somebody once said).

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I mentioned a few times last week the signs looked more promising as we moved into a new month...the signs this morning are gaining traction!

The finer details of how strong a build of Heights and the exact positioning will be firmed up over the next few days,this will be paramount to how sunny and how warm we become!

Bit the signs my friends are looking sweet.

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm still utterly distraught at 25/26 in the SE next Thurs and 14/16 here !!!!

 

Well if you want to live in an area that is dryer and warmer in summer than then south east of the england has always been the place to be.  They are the driest warmest part of the country in the summer. I live in the southwest and whilst we do get nicer weather than the north I accept than our climate is still more changeable and wetter than the south east as we are nearer the north Atlantic whilst the south east is closer to mainland Europe.  Even down here in summer temperatures can often be over 5c warmer in the usual south eastern parts than in the south west.  I'm sure someone has a more technical explanation for this and I would love to hear it

Edited June 28, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[mb018538]

20 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Well if you want to live in an area that is dryer and warmer in summer than then south east of the england has always been the place to be.  They are the driest warmest part of the country in the summer. I live in the southwest and whilst we do get nicer weather than the north I accept than our climate is still more changeable and wetter than the south east as we are nearer the north Atlantic whilst the south east is closer to mainland Europe.  Even down here in summer temperatures can often be over 5c warmer in the usual south eastern parts than in the south west.  I'm sure someone has a more technical explanation for this and I would love to hear it

There's a few reasons...

Devon is on the western side of the UK - and with the prevailing winds being westerly, it's just exposed more often to Atlantic systems. These often deposit heavier rain out west, before it weakens as it heads east. Many systems also track SW-NE and can miss the SE corner altogether too. Westerly airflows also tend to warm up and dry out as they cross the country, making the E/SE corner warmer and less cloudy (opposite is often true for easterlies, with NW Wales often warmest). SE also has a shorter sea track and is closer to continental airmasses, so the SE corner is usually hotter for heatwaves.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, I think there are significant grounds for optimism regarding next week in terms of a general return to something more summery in nature?! ️ ? 

 

[minus10]

39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

There's a few reasons...

Devon is on the western side of the UK - and with the prevailing winds being westerly, it's just exposed more often to Atlantic systems. These often deposit heavier rain out west, before it weakens as it heads east. Many systems also track SW-NE and can miss the SE corner altogether too. Westerly airflows also tend to warm up and dry out as they cross the country, making the E/SE corner warmer and less cloudy (opposite is often true for easterlies, with NW Wales often warmest). SE also has a shorter sea track and is closer to continental airmasses, so the SE corner is usually hotter for heatwaves.

Yes, i likened it (the south east) to a med type climate earlier...particularly given the dry conditions here now. Had 4mm yesterday and maybe chance of a 'bit' more tomorrow/ Thursday but in general for all the things you refer to and that the general trend is for a drier and warmer climate in the se then this is something i think we (and particularly gardeners/growers ) have to get used to in this part of the country. Even in 'unsettled' periods the se often remains relatively dry and warmer and that looks the case as we enter July...

 

 Any usefull rain has to be relied on from a convective source eg storms and as we know they are not reliable...

[Frosty.]

The GEM 0z mean turns into a GEM ….some nice perts and the op turned out pretty good too…reasons to be cheerful?…plenty I would say when you look at the general model trend so far today!! ️ 

 

[danm]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

There's a few reasons...

Devon is on the western side of the UK - and with the prevailing winds being westerly, it's just exposed more often to Atlantic systems. These often deposit heavier rain out west, before it weakens as it heads east. Many systems also track SW-NE and can miss the SE corner altogether too. Westerly airflows also tend to warm up and dry out as they cross the country, making the E/SE corner warmer and less cloudy (opposite is often true for easterlies, with NW Wales often warmest). SE also has a shorter sea track and is closer to continental airmasses, so the SE corner is usually hotter for heatwaves.

Yep, agree. Here in the SE we are very close to the continent, with a short sea track, and far enough away from the Atlantic to be less influenced by it. It only takes a small, subtle shift in wind direction for us to tap into much warmer, drier air that can quickly lift temperatures up to the mid/high 20's. It doesn't need uncommon or exceptional synoptics for this to happen and is therefore a relatively common occurrence. 

Rainfall totals also tend to be low outside of convection, unless we're stuck under a trough which can happen sometimes in summer. In our standard summer synoptic pattern, we are often under at the very least a ridge of high pressure located to the south that keeps things relatively dry and sunny, with average temperatures of about 22c at this time of year and 24c in mid to late July. 

[JayAlmeida]

GFS temperature trends are concerning if you live anywhere outside of East or Central England on the 00z and 06z. A sustained difference of around 10c is being hinted between the SE and my neck of the woods in NW England and it's even worse the further north and west you are. In the last 2 warm spells we have fared much better with a difference of around 3-5c compared the the SE which is usually the way it plays out.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO towards day 7 looks shall we say promising!

The future is bright...the future is a delight!

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs is a little later with a warmer evolution but it gets there aventually ,...mid July could(i said could) be a good un with maybe some bangers to go with it,...and er!!! BBQ's

all speculative ATM but i want to see trends like this in future/subsequent runs

 

 

[mb018538]

Seems to be a growing trend through early next week for a fairly warm NW flow (in terms of 850s). This could mean the NW gets plagued by cloud…with this breaking up a bit towards the SE, where it warms up. If it stays cloudy then temps could get stuck in the mid teens. Hopefully later on in the week this will be less of an issue.

[Frosty.]

Very respectable Ukmo 12z further ahead, Azores ridge building in across the u k and warming up too, nice NH profile at T+168 hours! ️  

[Singularity]

GFS 12z really threw me with Saturday’s low position - much further south & stronger than prior runs. Had to check that I wasn’t looking at cached charts!

UKM 12z hasn’t supported that change but it can be a step behind on new developments. ECM 12z will be important.

Regardless, the signal for an impressively strong Azores High to ridge across next week remains - and that signal is also impressively strong right out toward mid-July. 

[Buzz]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

GFS 12z really threw me with Saturday’s low position - much further south & stronger than prior runs. Had to check that I wasn’t looking at cached charts!

UKM 12z hasn’t supported that change but it can be a step behind on new developments. ECM 12z will be important.

Regardless, the signal for an impressively strong Azores High to ridge across next week remains - and that signal is also impressively strong right out toward mid-July. 

I can't help but notice that in recent runs from the main models the push north east of the Azores high keeps getting pushed back a bit - a few days ago its eastern flank was looking fairly well established over us by Saturday, however now that's been pushed back to Monday.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I would say the Gem 12z is a sparkling piece of silver The trend is your friend my friends..  hell yeh it maybe a little dodgy further North for a while but the long ranger from Exeter hints at settled and warmer conditions becoming more extensive...hang on in there my brave Hardy Northern friends.

And just to add the pitfalls of short range forecasting are at times so far apart its almost laughable. Met Office have me down for Heavy and frequent showers tomorrow, and my local app which has just updated as me down for dry with sunny spells all day!

I know which outcome my money is on!

Basically get ready for a visit from the ice cream van next week...just asked my local one how business was doing? He replied its a bit steady at the moment...but fingers crossed with Global warming and that!

Edited June 28, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

Further ahead, the GEFS 12z mean is moving through the gears and by later next week gets the u k into a potentially very good position regarding the Azores high / ridge which will hopefully bode well going much further into July! ️  

 

Edited June 28, 2022 by jon snow

[Singularity]

45 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I can't help but notice that in recent runs from the main models the push north east of the Azores high keeps getting pushed back a bit - a few days ago its eastern flank was looking fairly well established over us by Saturday, however now that's been pushed back to Monday.

That has been true of GFS, but ECM & UKM have both been slower the whole time, with GFS having adjusted toward them.

In fact ECM was even slower until yesterday’s 00z run.

Today’s ECM 12z has not supported GFS 12z regarding Sat so it appears that was a rouge run, the prior 06z being a far better guide at this time.

[Cambrian]

Another promising GFS run. The 12z GFS ensemble mean gets up above 1020mb on day 5 and stays there through to day 15, peaking at 1027mb on day 10, with the operational run around 1034mb. 

There is a steady rise in temperatures, but it takes until around day 9 to break through the long term T850 average, and for maxima to get reliably back into the low twenties (Birmingham). There is a steady climb in nighttime minima too. 

 

Just like for pressure, the operational run gets up well above the mean for temperatures around days 11 to 14, so the higher temperatures shown by the op for those few days aren’t strongly supported yet, mid twenties looking about right for that period at the moment. It’s a long way off in any case but could well be worth keeping an eye on for an eventual build in heat around that time.

More to the point though, I actually like the slow build on this one, not getting that hot that soon, but looking like a lengthy spell of reliably pleasant summer weather in the making, largely dry from the 3rd of July (poetry that is). 

[Uncertainty]

Check out this monster ridge on the ECM!

Would be a seriously anticyclonic northerly!

Could we have a 2nd decent July in a row? 

The first half is certainly looking that way…

[Allseasons-Si]

The gefs 850's and pressure graphs suits me fine as we go into week two with a mean temp touching +10 and the pressure of around 1026-7,yes the pressure shows a drop off after that but will it?

And the latest from the ECM at 216,this looks more amplified than this mornings run with that Icelandic low removed

12z 216 v's 06z 240...

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean builds on the improving trend seen pretty much across the board today..and culminates in a stellar day 10! ️  ? 

Edited June 28, 2022 by jon snow

[Singularity]

Slower arrival of ‘very warm’ category 850s on the 12z runs generally but with that being due to a more amplified high which corresponds to one likely to stick around for longer.

As others have noted, a descent trade-off if you like pleasant summer weather with temps mainly low to mid-20s.

Cloud not an issue as widely compared to the flatter 00z runs, as the flow is a bit slacker. Still could be a bother in the northwest, mind.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Seems to be a growing trend through early next week for a fairly warm NW flow (in terms of 850s). This could mean the NW gets plagued by cloud…with this breaking up a bit towards the SE, where it warms up. If it stays cloudy then temps could get stuck in the mid teens. Hopefully later on in the week this will be less of an issue.

Normally ugly setup for my location, usually cold, cloudy with cool breeze around 17 degrees max

[mushymanrob]

Odd .... not sure why theres excitement over a Northerly in July!  It "fine" at best... the AZH is not good for warmth/heat/sun whilst its anchored to our West.