Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Don]

18 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

June hasnt been bad has it... certainly no dull washout for most places, and the outlook is average which for late June/early July isnt bad... and most "classic" summers dont get going until July anyway!
Currently the CET is 14.8c, which is higher than 1995 (june 14.2c) 1983 (14.3c) and many more classic great Summers...

Can also add June 2013 to that list which had a cool CET of 13.6C, but then looked what happened in July!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Now I'm seeing the signs of improvement moving forward,the earlier ECM run points to more flexing of the Azores High for one and I'm feeling confident of something much better as we enter the new month...again especially away from the far North.

The Exeter update looks promising for this period also...now stating a possible lengthier spell of settled conditions for many. Matt H pointing out on twitter earlier how he feels big improvement into July looks plausible.

Cracking day here today...No showers and good sunny spells..

Enjoy the rest of your Sundays 

Edited June 26, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

Good consistency from GFS now for a decent ridge from the Azores nosing in by this time next week, 12z follows the 6z and 0z, here T168:

For the time being settled for most of the UK but not overly hot with the air coming from round the northern flank of the high, at this time of year, very useable weather.

[Scott Ingham]

5 hours ago, Singularity said:

The usual question of progressiveness arises - with the deterministic model runs, we often see a new direction of travel brought on a bit too fast at first. ECM 00z felt like a good effort, with the slack ridge next weekend before a more emphatic one arrives on D10, though I’d not surprised if it happened a day or two later in reality with LP staying closer to the NE beforehand.

At this time, the 2nd & perhaps 3rd weeks of July looks to me to hold highest potential for a lengthy very warm or hot (but potentially very hot at times, which is a concern) spell of weather affecting more than just a little of the UK.

2nd and 3rd week have for a while been when i expect things to calm down.

Classic progressiveness for me to a tropical signal.

Happens time and again

[Cambrian]

City hopping with the 12z GEFS precipitation charts gives an indication of the current modelling of the northward extent of the influence of the Azores ridge from next weekend into the following week. 

Though it turns less wet, Glasgow never really settles down, plenty of members offering prospects of some rain all the way through the next two weeks.

Manchester has a relatively wet 6 days, then a largely dry 6 days, but with more members signalling precipitation peaks again for days 13-16 towards the end of the run.  

As for London, good chance of a couple of spells of rain this week, otherwise a return to largely dry weather. Ah, the parched existence of the urban sweet peas. 

All fits in nicely with the Z500 mean anomaly charts, I’ve picked day 11. 

 

The enhanced heights always struggle to get further north, so close to average here throughout, hence the occasional rain. Just above average for Manchester for a while to support that drier spell, but typically higher throughout further south and west, closer to the ridge, turning largely dry here by the end of this week, and maybe staying that way for a good while. 

[Stav]

Of course we all like the warm, dry weather that is now forecast ahead, but my goodness we need some rain in the East of England. I was walking along by the River Nene this afternoon, and dust was blowing up from the footpaths and my boots were covered in it, a bit like at the end of a long, dry summer. 

[minus10]

46 minutes ago, Stav said:

Of course we all like the warm, dry weather that is now forecast ahead, but my goodness we need some rain in the East of England. I was walking along by the River Nene this afternoon, and dust was blowing up from the footpaths and my boots were covered in it, a bit like at the end of a long, dry summer. 

Yes i often come accross loads of dust and dry earth when blowing clean at the end of gardening jobs. Its getting worse. Hoping we get at least a few mm this week before it becomes completely dry again as trying to keep plants and crops going is an increasing challenge . We might moan about rain but it is so important for the environment. As you say sunny warm weather is great....so long as it is interspersed with meaningful rain at times. Cant see that happening here though with the re-emergence of the Azores as a player...

precip totals still very suppressed here in the east on latest ecm..

 

[mb018538]

GFS 00z got the memo about the pattern change into July...





Should add that the GEM is nothing like this and only starts to settle down by Thursday.

UKMO starting to look there or there-abouts by Monday:

[mb018538]

ECM doesn't quite make it. More settled, but the Azores high not quite pushing across.

The 00z GFS was an outlier too, but the general trend is decent:

 

[chapmanslade]

59 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM doesn't quite make it. More settled, but the Azores high not quite pushing across.

The 00z GFS was an outlier too, but the general trend is decent:

 

At no stage is the GFS an outlier on that graph!

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

At no stage is the GFS an outlier on that graph!

The only problem being  is that any improvement in the weather is still in fantasy island ten days away and we know the story about that situation

[mb018538]

ECM day 8-10 clusters....encouraging!

 

 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM day 8-10 clusters....encouraging!

 

 

Looks increasingly drier ...

[Cambrian]

Looking at the Z500 mean anomaly charts of the 0z ECM run, the next 10 day period is like a game of two halves. Low pressure is in clear control until day 4,

but the game becomes more balanced by half time at day 5 and the positive anomalies crucially nick one back in the bottom right corner just before the break. 

The negative anomalies are on the back foot throughout the second half and the increased pressure has paid off by day 8 with the more positive heights in the ascendancy, forcing an equaliser heading into stoppage time. 

The trough has clearly tired by this stage and higher than normal heights are in complete dominance in all areas of the park. Day 10 brings the decisive blow, the positive anomalies pushing home the advantage to wrap up the win just before the end.
 

The ref blows and the crowd are ecstatic. 

“Are you watching Scandi trough?”, the home fans sing. 

[mushymanrob]

42 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

 

 

And the NOAAs agree with this... an advancing Azores High, no quick fix but as some others have said - mid/later in the month.



 

[mountain shadow]

28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

And the NOAAs agree with this... an advancing Azores High, no quick fix but as some others have said - mid/later in the month.



 

Whilst the Azores High ridging in will at least dry things out over here, my fear is that this will be a cloudy sub tropical high, with again the better conditions towards the South East. Would love to see the ridge push further East over time.

[johnholmes]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Whilst the Azores High ridging in will at least dry things out over here, my fear is that this will be a cloudy sub tropical high, with again the better conditions towards the South East. Would love to see the ridge push further East over time.

It does not look a stationary type of flow to me so one would expect any ridging, none really showing on the above chart, but a small +ve height anomaly, may move east. Another couple of days should show how NOAA at least see the 500 mb flow developing.

[johnholmes]

My apologies, I was looking at my previous file, the latest NOAA 6-10 last evening does show a very slight suggestion of ridging along with that small +ve anomaly

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Encouraging signs folks...moves in the correct direction of a pattern change moving into the new month!

Ecm mean clearly shows this trend with more extension NE of the Azores High...showers are the order of the day over the next several days...usual caveats applie,some areas getting plenty....others largely dry.

Also noticing my app for next week looks much much better..I do take apps with a pinch of salt but the trend is there.

A gr8 week too all of you.

[SunSean]

36 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Encouraging signs folks...moves in the correct direction of a pattern change moving into the new month!

Ecm mean clearly shows this trend with more extension NE of the Azores High...showers are the order of the day over the next several days...usual caveats applie,some areas getting plenty....others largely dry.

Also noticing my app for next week looks much much better..I do take apps with a pinch of salt but the trend is there.

A gr8 week too all of you.

What is that weather app? I've never seen one with a prediction for hours of sunshine before!

[Singularity]

An interesting feature that keeps appearing in the scenarios for next week is an exceptionally strong yet zonally-elongated Azores High.

That means a lot of very warm air heads generally eastward across the N. Atlantic & there's a decent change that high is large enough to nose across the UK at time when usually we'd stay in a changeable, at times cool regime.

If it does so, the air could be unusually warm for a WNW to NW airflow, such that temps range from near average in the northwest to a few degrees C above in the southeast.

All this will be very sensitive to how zonally elongated (i.e. stretched west-east) the Azores High is. The 00z was at the high end of the spread for that, while the ECM 00z was more middle-ground and the GFS 06z has moved someway toward that.

That middle ground looks a bit drab for the northwest with a lot of cloud and temps near or a little below average, while the south and southeast experience near to slightly above average temps with sunny spells.

Lots of water to pass under the bridge before then, though. It's hard to sit comfortably when the UK looks to be on the periphery of high pressure as opposed to right underneath it (that will become more likely during the 2nd week of July).

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

It does not look a stationary type of flow to me so one would expect any ridging, none really showing on the above chart, but a small +ve height anomaly, may move east. Another couple of days should show how NOAA at least see the 500 mb flow developing.

I was comparing the last several 8-14 day charts which have shifted the troughing expected over the UK eastwards... The slight positive heights have now increased over the UK... what i was doing is projecting this development further ahead - hence "advancing" . Of course that may not happen... but we have had some pretty good Summers when the AZH is sitting to our near West and ridging in over us from time to time like 1983.. June 2018 too...

Im also swayed by what others have been saying about AAM, which, i believe, (as i dont understand it) could lead the the AZH ridging in later into July..

Maybe im getting carried away with myself, but its all harmless fun, trying to second guess the developing pattern.

[mountain shadow]

Not much good for the folk in the desert of Kent looking rain, but the GFS really builds in the Azores high next week.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Not much good for the folk in the desert of Kent looking rain, but the GFS really builds in the Azores high next week.

Yes GFS looks very dry ,and increasingly warmer.

Slightly different at 144 to UKMO so I  won't get too carried away .( Although the trend is drier and warmer ).

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes GFS looks very dry ,and increasingly warmer.

Slightly different at 144 to UKMO so I  won't get too carried away .( Although the trend is drier and warmer ).

Hopefully ECM goes with the GFS. Many parts of Ireland have had a poor June.