Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[mb018538]

26 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Then a couple of days later….

Shame we can’t see the 3pm chart even if it is just for fun.

I think if it was 37c by midday then we’d definitely go beyond 39c by 3-4pm. What a crazy chart  

[Don]

52 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well.... you dont see this very often!...lol

Wednesday 13th...

 

Becoming more and more common though sadly.....

[Don]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I think if it was 37c by midday then we’d definitely go beyond 39c by 3-4pm. What a crazy chart  

Would not be good at all if that came off for the south!

[Allseasons-Si]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry to be a party pooper, but this chart doesnt really bring in high pressure over the UK. Theres a moderate Westerly upper flow with some pressure rises over the uk.

If this chart is accurate, then any warmth/summer/heat is unlikely (widespread and for long) before mid month. Of course, that doesnt mean it wont later ... fingers crossed!

But its not a bad chart, some decent summers weather, just not sustained heat

 

Ay Rob,...we need those westerly uppers to blow that +ve anomaly further east then we are game on

and like you say,...this evening's one or maybe tomorrow will be interesting to look forward to viewing,...hopefully

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I think if it was 37c by midday then we’d definitely go beyond 39c by 3-4pm. What a crazy chart  

Yeah but important to remember that the GFS is usually 2/3’C too low

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Then a couple of days later….

Shame we can’t see the 3pm chart even if it is just for fun.

Pleasant output this evening.

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Would not be good at all if that came off for the south!

Yawn…..

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Pleasant output this evening.

Yawn…..

But unfortunately a massive outlier in a completely unremarkable set of ensembles 

[Captain Shortwave]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry to be a party pooper, but this chart doesnt really bring in high pressure over the UK. Theres a moderate Westerly upper flow with some pressure rises over the uk.

If this chart is accurate, then any warmth/summer/heat is unlikely (widespread and for long) before mid month. Of course, that doesnt mean it wont later ... fingers crossed!

But its not a bad chart, some decent summers weather, just not sustained heat

 

We won’t see any temperature records fall, but if the high can centre itself towards Ireland then we should be able cut out the maritime flow and allow warmth to build overhead. It is perfectly possible to get mid/high twenties, even 30c locally as July 2013 showed. The models are trying to slowly push the high east into week 2, but it is probably day 6 at the moment where the high is officially in full control.

 

 

Not a lot of rain on offer in the upcoming period. Just near normal temperatures until the high properly builds.

[mathematician]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

well.... you dont see this very often!...lol

Wednesday 13th...

 

Let's all hope and pray it doesn't happen.

 

That's a very dangerous kind of heat.

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yawn…..

Fine but I shall remember this post come winter when you moan about a ridiculously cold FI GFS run!!  

[Portsmouth Sun]

4 minutes ago, mathematician said:

Let's all hope and pray it doesn't happen.

 

That's a very dangerous kind of heat.

The rest of Europe manage to cope, even Scandinavia, I do not see a problem.  However it is a massive outlier, so 99.9% sure it will not come off.

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

We won’t see any temperature records fall, but if the high can centre itself towards Ireland then we should be able cut out the maritime flow and allow warmth to build overhead. It is perfectly possible to get mid/high twenties, even 30c locally as July 2013 showed. The models are trying to slowly push the high east into week 2, but it is probably day 6 at the moment where the high is officially in full control.

 

 

Not a lot of rain on offer in the upcoming period. Just near normal temperatures until the high properly builds.

I get what you're saying, Matt (regarding the breaking of records) and before 2019, I'd have agreed 100%. These days, though, I'm not so sure?

Edited June 29, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Fine but I shall remember this post come winter when you moan about a ridiculously cold FI GFS run!!  

I won’t moan as don’t post in the winter it’s all cold, -10C, +10C

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a pretty good EC mean at day 10.

Hopefully a solid starting point for a protracted warm spell.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see drought like conditions across the SE by late July...

 

Yes, before the heavens open.. looking a very slow change something substantively drier and warmer for all, the north and west is having a wet spell at present, as ever the south and east will be favoured most in terms of sunshine and warmth.. but the signal is there for a protracted warm fine spell, possibly not starting until second weekend of July. We need to keep an eye on shortwave / trough development to our NW which could prevent heights ridging sufficiently through the UK, if this was latter part of summer I'd be more nervous but alas the jet remains quite weak.

[Frosty.]

Quick mention about the mid / longer term GEM 12z! …I will leave it to Austin! ️  

 

[Josh Rubio]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

well.... you dont see this very often!...lol

Wednesday 13th...

 

Nice for recording breaking/a bit of fun but other than that, disgusting looking temperatures. Let’s be real, not many people would enjoy that sort of heat. Hopefully it won’t materialise. 

[Jayces]

56 minutes ago, Alderc said:

But unfortunately a massive outlier in a completely unremarkable set of ensembles 

Isn't that how the models work though, they all do different computations and produce a plausible run and sometimes the odd one out is the right one where over following runs others join in? Likely not that exact scenario but I've always understood that every run has the potential to be the right one. After all, even though they are just computer models, they have been programmed to follow the psychics of weather.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Jayces
Spelling

[Frosty.]

I gorra say there’s a lorra lorra things to like about the GEM 12z mean too!…some absolutely cracking perts in there! ️  

 

[Iceman2606]

Calm yourself GFS!

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry to be a party pooper, but this chart doesnt really bring in high pressure over the UK. Theres a moderate Westerly upper flow with some pressure rises over the uk.

If this chart is accurate, then any warmth/summer/heat is unlikely (widespread and for long) before mid month. Of course, that doesnt mean it wont later ... fingers crossed!

But its not a bad chart, some decent summers weather, just not sustained heat

 

Well tonights suggests a very slow Eastward progression which i think the ECM @t240  is very close too... a slow build is a good thing as its more stable?.. but there is a promise now of a decent warm / hot summery spell..

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well tonights suggests a very slow Eastward progression which i think the ECM @t240  is very close too... a slow build is a good thing as its more stable?.. but there is a promise now of a decent warm / hot summery spell..

Indeed, Rob, and it looks like coinciding with what is historically the hottest time of the year (late July-early August)? And, just look at those predicted temperatures over France & Spain!

[Frosty.]

Pretty stunning ECMWF 12z ensemble mean tonight regarding the mid and especially longer term! …if this trend continues, it will be well worth waiting for! ️  

[ChannelThunder]

Exciting times for summer model watching. There's nearly always a plume in mid to late July, and you can see exactly where that'd evolve from on some of these runs. Still, too early to get carried away, as there could just as easily be too much of a maritime influence which stops the high progressing eastwards.

[Singularity]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry to be a party pooper, but this chart doesnt really bring in high pressure over the UK. Theres a moderate Westerly upper flow with some pressure rises over the uk.

If this chart is accurate, then any warmth/summer/heat is unlikely (widespread and for long) before mid month. Of course, that doesnt mean it wont later ... fingers crossed!

But its not a bad chart, some decent summers weather, just not sustained heat

 

There’s a decelerating upper flow across the UK which places the surface ridge with a decent overlap of our lands.

Please don’t treat 500 hPa anomalies like actual high & low centres.

Edit: Just seen your 12z analysis which is closer to the mark. It supports the 12z ECM very well.

———————

Overall in the modelling I see good support for temps to climb above the warm category by next Friday - some patience needed.

Beyond that, EPS are almost 3/4 in support of a heatwave pattern for NW Europe including at least southern UK. A continuation of the signal that first appeared in the extended ECM, but brought forward in time a little. While far from guaranteeing such an event, the strength and persistence of the signal should not be taken lightly IMO.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Singularity

[Guest]

Gfs again produces high 30s out in deep FI. Nice eye candy