Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[mountain shadow]

UK Met model predicting more heavy rain for my neck of the woods tomorrow, for what has been a shockingly poor June.

[Methuselah]

And here's the latest Met Office Ten-Day Trend: The signs are there!

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is pretty much a thing of beauty in the mid range for summer fans! ️ ? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, the 1030 hPa line in the UK at T240 on a mean chart is into nailed on territory for me!  Some of the GFS runs lately in the later stages have shown a classic extended Azores ridge into the UK and beyond.  

Might be a slow burner to start with particularly in the NW, but summer warm settled spells that build slowly tend to last.  

Gonna agree with you here Mike good man...I know these days we can get heat in very quickly from a starting point of very average conditions,but these kind of spells seem like a flash in the pan! Several days and they've gone!

This upcoming spell to me looks like a gradual build up of settled and gradually warmer conditions,which could end with very warm/hot conditions....yes its a long way off but I'm liking the trend today.

To those who have shredded nerves over this evolution....no need! Summary spells are 2 a penny these days,especially away from far N/W locations. This is not Winter when the carrot gets dangled daily before slowly but surely eroding away!

The world is a warmer place and Hot events will become more frequent and that's a hard fact! Yes it won't be always favouring us in Winter...but it will in Summer.

Again this morning GEM is a cracker...We could be locked in for a protected spell of settled conditions...

Like me grandma used too say....?Matthew get the High pressure in first and the Heat will follow

Now put the kettle on and have a nice cup of java! Or Earl gray if your feeling snobby

Edited June 29, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[minus10]

Although an outlier at the end, clear indication i think there from gfes of warming up...ney. hotting up for last third of 6z run. Combine  that with lowering pressure for that period...recipe for storms if this trend continued...but obviously lot of dry rivers under the bridge to go yet...

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And here's the latest Met Office Ten-Day Trend: The signs are there!

 

No mention of confidence there, which probably means high confidence for Azores high to move in firmly next week. Bring on the summer folks!

[mushymanrob]

Sorry to be a party pooper, but this chart doesnt really bring in high pressure over the UK. Theres a moderate Westerly upper flow with some pressure rises over the uk.

If this chart is accurate, then any warmth/summer/heat is unlikely (widespread and for long) before mid month. Of course, that doesnt mean it wont later ... fingers crossed!

But its not a bad chart, some decent summers weather, just not sustained heat

 

Edited June 29, 2022 by mushymanrob

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry to be a party pooper, but this chart doesnt really bring in high pressure over the UK. Theres a moderate Westerly upper flow with some pressure rises over the uk.

If this chart is accurate, then any warmth/summer/heat is unlikely (widespread and for long) before mid month. Of course, that doesnt mean it wont later ... fingers crossed!

But its not a bad chart, some decent summers weather, just not sustained heat

 

It's not bad - just 500 miles too far out west to be a true summer corker. I suspect many would prefer this anyway, likely to be pleasant rather than scorching. Only trouble could be cloud amounts....could import a fair bit being westerly based, which could make it a bit tedious.

[mountain shadow]

39 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry to be a party pooper, but this chart doesnt really bring in high pressure over the UK. Theres a moderate Westerly upper flow with some pressure rises over the uk.

If this chart is accurate, then any warmth/summer/heat is unlikely (widespread and for long) before mid month. Of course, that doesnt mean it wont later ... fingers crossed!

But its not a bad chart, some decent summers weather, just not sustained heat

 

When your weather for June has been persistent cloud and periods of heavy rain interspersed with cool dry weather and max temps of 13C-16C, I will take dry with maxes of 18C-20C thanks very much.

Currently lashing down again.

[northwestsnow]

GFS 12z looks glorious  

High pressure still in control by day 10 with temps climbing...

Edited June 29, 2022 by northwestsnow

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 12z looks glorious  

High pressure still in control by day 10 with temps climbing...

That is the ideal position. Not roasting hot but just right.

[Methuselah]

T+315, and hotting up nicely:

    

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

It's not bad - just 500 miles too far out west to be a true summer corker. I suspect many would prefer this anyway, likely to be pleasant rather than scorching. Only trouble could be cloud amounts....could import a fair bit being westerly based, which could make it a bit tedious.

True..... and tbh i wouldnt be surprised if tonights anomalies shifted in favour of high pressure over us, after all, all 4 GFS runs suggest it for next weekend.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

T+315, and hotting up nicely:

    

Ideal if we see HP migrating to the east as it opens the door to stormy goodness. Much better than having it anchored to the west.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

True..... and tbh i wouldnt be surprised if tonights anomalies shifted in favour of high pressure over us, after all, all 4 GFS runs suggest it for next weekend.

Must admit I was a bit surprised by the party pooper line mushy! Away from the usual cursed members the first half of  July is looking  

[mushymanrob]

well.... you dont see this very often!...lol

Wednesday 13th...

 

Edited June 29, 2022 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

Strong Azores ridge over the u k @ T+168 hours on Ukmo 12z…beyond that, I think the smart money would be on the high gradually becoming centred over the u k and then continuing to drift further east to enable it to become hot …but, I will be very happy with a more settled and warmer outlook with increasing amounts of strong July sunshine that lasts several days and then see where we go from there?! ️ 

Edited June 29, 2022 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

GEM at T216 and T240:

The high splitting to allow hotter temperatures over the UK.  I think if the main pastern persists, something like this is likely to happen eventually, uncorking the heat from the south or east.  

[NUT]

I don't post on here often but you'd think Temperature records would be shattered IF that GFS run came off (SPOILER: it won't) Some serious heat showing though even if it planet cuckoo

[MattStoke]

24 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well.... you dont see this very often!...lol

Wednesday 13th...

 

Then a couple of days later….

Shame we can’t see the 3pm chart even if it is just for fun.

[Northwest NI]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Then a couple of days later….

Shame we can’t see the 3pm chart even if it is just for fun.

Dangerously hot in France again on that. Very pleasant 22 in my location. Much prefer that.

[JayAlmeida]

17 minutes ago, NUT said:

I don't post on here often but you'd think Temperature records would be shattered IF that GFS run came off (SPOILER: it won't) Some serious heat showing though even if it planet cuckoo

That GFS 12z run is one of the craziest I have ever seen with every day past the 9th being over 27c in my area. North western europe in flames.

I would defo be blasting smooth by Santana and Rob Thomas  

Brings a whole new meaning to the term fantasy island.

Edited June 29, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Frosty.]

I feel it’s appropriate to show these charts seeing as it’s officially a HOT topic!

 

 

[minus10]

 

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

But its not a bad chart, some decent summers weather, just not sustained heat

 

No complaints from me with that chart!